TY - JOUR T1 - Coupling hydrodynamic and individual-based models to simulate long-term larval supply to coastal nursery areas A1 - Rochette,Sebastien A1 - Huret,Martin A1 - Rivot,Etienne A1 - Le Pape,Olivier AD - Agrocampus Ouest, UMR 985 Inra Ecol & Sante Ecosys, CS 84215, F-35042 Rennes, France. AD - IFREMER, Dept Dynam Environm Cotier, F-29280 Plouzane, France. UR - https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2419.2012.00621.x DO - 10.1111/j.1365-2419.2012.00621.x KW - eastern Channel KW - hydrodynamic model KW - individual-based model KW - larval supply KW - nursery grounds KW - recruitment variability KW - Solea solea N2 - For many marine fish species, recruitment is strongly related to larval survival and dispersal to nursery areas. Simulating larval drift should help assessing the sensitivity of recruitment variability to early life history. An individual-based model (IBM) coupled to a hydrodynamic model was used to simulate common sole larval supply from spawning areas to coastal and estuarine nursery grounds at the population scale in the eastern Channel on a 14-yr time series, from 1991 to 2004. The IBM allowed each particle released to be transported by currents from the hydrodynamic model, to grow with temperature, to migrate vertically giving stage development, and possibly to die according to drift duration, representing the life history from spawning to metamorphosis. Despite sensitivity to the larval mortality rate, the model provided realistic simulations of cohort decline and spatio-temporal variability of larval supply. The model outputs were analysed to explore the effects of hydrodynamics and life history on the interannual variability of settled sole larvae in coastal nurseries. Different hypotheses of the spawning spatial distribution were also tested, comparing homogeneous egg distribution to observation and potential larval survival (PLS) maps. The sensitivity analyses demonstrated that larval supply is more sensitive to the life history along larval drift than to the phenology and volume of spawning, providing explanations for the lack of significant stock–recruitment relationship. Nevertheless, larval supply is sensitive to spawning distribution. Results also suggested a very low connectivity between supposed different sub-populations in the eastern Channel. Y1 - 2012 PB - Wiley-blackwell JF - Fisheries Oceanography SN - 1054-6006 VL - 21 IS - 4 SP - 229 EP - 242 ID - 19598 ER -