Modeling the Arctic Freshwater System and its integration in the global system: Lessons learned and future challenges
|Copyright||2015 American Geophysical Union. All rights reserved.|
|Author(s)||Lique Camille1, 2, Holland Marika M.3, Dibike Yonas B.4, Lawrence David M.5, Screen James A.6|
|Affiliation(s)||1 : Univ Oxford, Dept Earth Sci, Oxford OX1 3PR, England.
2 : CNRS IFREMER IRD UBO, Lab Phys Oceans, UMR6523, Ifremer, Brest, France.
3 : Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, Climate & Global Dynam Div, POB 3000, Boulder, CO 80307 USA.
4 : Univ Victoria, Environm Canada, Water & Climate Impacts Res Ctr, Victoria, BC, Canada.
5 : Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, POB 3000, Boulder, CO 80307 USA.
6 : Univ Exeter, Coll Engn Math & Phys Sci, Exeter, Devon, England.
|Source||Journal Of Geophysical Research-biogeosciences (2169-8953) (Amer Geophysical Union), 2016-03 , Vol. 121 , N. 3 , P. 540-566|
|WOS© Times Cited||9|
|Abstract||Numerous components of the Arctic freshwater system (atmosphere, ocean, cryosphere, terrestrial hydrology) have experienced large changes over the past few decades, and these changes are projected to amplify further in the future. Observations are particularly sparse, both in time and space, in the Polar Regions. Hence, modeling systems have been widely used and are a powerful tool to gain understanding on the functioning of the Arctic freshwater system and its integration within the global Earth system and climate. Here, we present a review of modeling studies addressing some aspect of the Arctic freshwater system. Through illustrative examples, we point out the value of using a hierarchy of models with increasing complexity and component interactions, in order to dismantle the important processes at play for the variability and changes of the different components of the Arctic freshwater system and the interplay between them. We discuss past and projected changes for the Arctic freshwater system and explore the sources of uncertainty associated with these model results. We further elaborate on some missing processes that should be included in future generations of Earth system models and highlight the importance of better quantification and understanding of natural variability, amongst other factors, for improved predictions of Arctic freshwater system change.|