FN Archimer Export Format
PT J
TI Intersection-union tests for characterising recent changes in smoothed indicator time series
BT 
AF TRENKEL, Verena
   ROCHET, Marie-Joelle
AS 1:1;2:1;
FF 1:PDG-DOP-DCN-EMH;2:PDG-DOP-DCN-EMH;
C1 IFREMER, Dept EMH, F-44311 Nantes 03, France.
C2 IFREMER, FRANCE
SI NANTES
SE PDG-DOP-DCN-EMH
IN WOS Ifremer jusqu'en 2018
IF 3.102
TC 12
UR https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/2009/publication-6234.pdf
LA English
DT Article
DE ;Composite test;Assessment;Fisheries management;Metrics;Time trend
AB Using indicator time series for assessment and management requires methods for characterising recent time trends. We propose an approach where first the indicator time series is smoothed using a generalised additive model with optimal selection of the degree of smoothness. Second an intersection-union test is carried out using two test statistics which are the occurrence of the global maximum (or minimum) within the most recent years and the signs of the estimated annual first derivatives of the smoothed indicator times series during the same period, including years with missing data. The proposed test is applied to fish abundance indices for the North Sea, for which it is they are able to pick up changes happening during the last 3-5 years in contrast to linear regression and the Mann-Kendall test which find much fewer significant recent trends. An additional test for changes in trends using the second derivatives of the smoothed indicator time series provide early warnings for subsequent trends for certain species.
PY 2009
PD JUN
SO Ecological Indicators
SN 1470-160X
PU Elsevier
VL 9
IS 4
UT 000263395500012
BP 732
EP 739
DI 10.1016/j.ecolind.2008.09.005
ID 6234
ER

EF