FN Archimer Export Format
PT J
TI Influence of the state of the Indian Ocean Dipole on the following year's El Nino
BT 
AF IZUMO, Takeshi
   VIALARD, Jerome
   LENGAIGNE, Matthieu
   DE BOYER MONTEGUT, Clement
   BEHERA, Swadhin K.
   LUO, Jing-Jia
   CRAVATTE, Sophie
   MASSON, Sebastien
   YAMAGATA, Toshio
AS 1:1,4;2:2;3:2;4:3,4;5:4;6:4;7:5;8:2;9:4;
FF 1:;2:;3:;4:PDG-DOP-DCB-OPS-LOS;5:;6:;7:;8:;9:;
C1 Univ Tokyo, Grad Sch Sci, Dept Earth & Planetary Sci, Ocean & Atmosphere Grp,Bunkyo Ku, Tokyo 1130033, Japan.
   IRD CNRS UPMC, LOCEAN, F-75252 Paris, France.
   IFREMER, LOS, F-29280 Brest, France.
   JAMSTEC, Res Inst Global Change, Yokohama, Kanagawa 2360001, Japan.
   IRD CNRS UPS, LEGOS, F-31400 Toulouse, France.
C2 UNIV TOKYO, JAPAN
   UNIV PARIS 06, FRANCE
   IFREMER, FRANCE
   JAMSTEC, JAPAN
   LEGOS, FRANCE
SI BREST
SE PDG-DOP-DCB-OPS-LOS
IN WOS Ifremer jusqu'en 2018
   copubli-france
   copubli-int-hors-europe
IF 10.392
TC 262
TU Centre national d'études spatiales
   Centre national de la recherche scientifique
   Institut de recherche pour le développement
   Muséum national d'histoire naturelle
   Université Pierre et Marie Curie
   Université de Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier
UR https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00002/11304/7831.pdf
   https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00002/11304/7832.pdf
   https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00002/11304/7833.pdf
LA English
DT Article
CR VT 102 / CIRENE
   VT 75 / CIRENE
BO Marion Dufresne
AB El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) consists of irregular episodes of warm El Nino and cold La Nina conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean(1), with significant global socio-economic and environmental impacts(1). Nevertheless, forecasting ENSO at lead times longer than a few months remains a challenge(2,3). Like the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean also shows interannual climate fluctuations, which are known as the Indian Ocean Dipole(4,5). Positive phases of the Indian Ocean Dipole tend to co-occur with El Nino, and negative phases with La Nina(6-9). Here we show using a simple forecast model that in addition to this link, a negative phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole anomaly is an efficient predictor of El Nino 14 months before its peak, and similarly, a positive phase in the Indian Ocean Dipole often precedes La Nina. Observations and model analyses suggest that the Indian Ocean Dipole modulates the strength of the Walker circulation in autumn. The quick demise of the Indian Ocean Dipole anomaly in November-December then induces a sudden collapse of anomalous zonal winds over the Pacific Ocean, which leads to the development of El Nino/La Nina. Our study suggests that improvements in the observing system in the Indian Ocean region and better simulations of its interannual climate variability will benefit ENSO forecasts.
PY 2010
PD MAR
SO Nature Geoscience
SN 1752-0894
PU Nature Publishing Group
VL 3
IS 3
UT 000274974700016
BP 168
EP 172
DI 10.1038/NGEO760
ID 11304
ER

EF