Predicting the consequences of nutrient reduction on the eutrophication status of the North Sea

Type Article
Date 2010-04
Language English
Author(s) Lenhart Hermann-J.1, Mills David K.2, Baretta-Bekker Hanneke3, Van Leeuwen Sonja M.2, Van Der Molen Johan2, Baretta Job W.4, Blaas Meinte5, Desmit Xavier5, Kuehn Wilfried1, Lacroix Genevieve6, Los Hans J.5, Menesguen Alain7, Neves Ramiro8, Proctor Roger9, Ruardij Piet10, Skogen Morten D.11, Vanhoutte Brunier Alice7, Villars Monique T.5, Wakelin Sarah L.9
Affiliation(s) 1 : Univ Hamburg, Inst Meereskunde, ZMAW, Hamburg, Germany.
2 : Cefas, Lowestoft NR33 0HT, Suffolk, England.
3 : RWS Ctr Water Management, NL-8200 AA Lelystad, Netherlands.
4 : Noctiluca, NL-2241 RX Wassenaar, Netherlands.
5 : Deltares, NL-2600 MH Delft, Netherlands.
6 : MUMM, RBINS, B-1200 Brussels, Belgium.
7 : IFREMER, Ctr Brest, Lab Ecol Benth, Dept Dynam Environm Cotier, F-29280 Plouzane, France.
8 : Univ Tecn Lisbon, Inst Super Tecn, P-1049001 Lisbon, Portugal.
9 : Proudman Oceanog Lab, Liverpool L3 5DA, Merseyside, England.
10 : Royal Netherlands Inst Sea Res, NL-1790 AB Den Burg, Netherlands.
11 : Inst Marine Res, N-5817 Bergen, Norway.
Meeting Symposium on Advances in Marine Ecosystem Modelling Research, Plymouth, ENGLAND, JUN 23-26, 2008
Source Journal Of Marine Systems (0924-7963) (Elsevier Science Bv), 2010-04 , Vol. 81 , N. 1-2 , P. 148-170
DOI 10.1016/j.jmarsys.2009.12.014
WOS© Times Cited 96
Keyword(s) Eutrophication, Ecosystem modeling, OSPAR Comprehensive Procedure, Eutrophication assessment, North Sea, River nutrient loads, Reduction scenarios
Abstract In this paper the results from a workshop of the OSPAR Intersessional Correspondence Group on Eutrophication Modelling (ICG-EMO) held in Lowestoft in 2007 are presented. The aim of the workshop was to compare the results of a number of North Sea ecosystem models under different reduction scenarios. In order to achieve comparability of model results the participants were requested to use a minimum spin-up time, common boundary conditions which were derived from a wider-domain model, and a set of common forcing data, with special emphasis on a complete coverage of river nutrient loads. Based on the OSPAR requirements river loads were derived, taking into account the reductions already achieved between 1985 and 2002 for each country. First, for the year 2002, for which the Comprehensive Procedure was applied, the different horizontal distributions of net primary production are compared. Furthermore, the differences in the net primary production between the hindcast run and the 50% nutrient reduction runs are displayed. In order to compare local results, the hindcast and reduction runs are presented for selected target areas and scored against the Comprehensive Procedure assessment levels for the parameters DIN, DIP and chlorophyll. Finally, the temporal development of the assessment parameter bottom oxygen concentration from several models is compared with data from the Dutch monitoring station Terschelling 135. The conclusion from the workshop was that models are useful to support the application of the OSPAR Comprehensive Procedure. The comparative exercise formulated specifically for the workshop required models to be evaluated for pre-defined target areas previously classified as problem areas according to the first application of the Comprehensive Procedure. The responsiveness of the modelled assessment parameters varied between different models but in general the parameter showed a larger response in coastal rather than in offshore waters, which in some cases lead to the goal to achieve a non-problem status. Therefore, the application of the Comprehensive Procedure on model results for parameter assessment opens a new potential in testing eutrophication reduction measures within the North Sea catchment. As a result of the workshop further work was proposed to confirm and bolster confidence in the results. One general field of difficulty appeared to be the model forcing with SPM data in order to achieve realistic levels of light attenuation. Finally, effects of the prescribed spin-up procedure are compared against a long-term run over many years and consequences on the resulting initial nutrient concentrations are highlighted. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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Lenhart Hermann-J., Mills David K., Baretta-Bekker Hanneke, Van Leeuwen Sonja M., Van Der Molen Johan, Baretta Job W., Blaas Meinte, Desmit Xavier, Kuehn Wilfried, Lacroix Genevieve, Los Hans J., Menesguen Alain, Neves Ramiro, Proctor Roger, Ruardij Piet, Skogen Morten D., Vanhoutte Brunier Alice, Villars Monique T., Wakelin Sarah L. (2010). Predicting the consequences of nutrient reduction on the eutrophication status of the North Sea. Journal Of Marine Systems, 81(1-2), 148-170. Publisher's official version : , Open Access version :