FN Archimer Export Format
PT J
TI Combining time trends in multiple metrics for identifying persistent changes in population processes or environmental stressors
BT 
AF TRENKEL, Verena
   ROCHET, Marie-Joelle
AS 1:1;2:1;
FF 1:PDG-DOP-DCN-EMH;2:PDG-DOP-DCN-EMH;
C1 IFREMER, F-44311 Nantes 03, France.
C2 IFREMER, FRANCE
SI NANTES
SE PDG-DOP-DCN-EMH
IN WOS Ifremer jusqu'en 2018
IF 4.97
TC 10
UR https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00008/11926/8988.pdf
LA English
DT Article
CR IBTS 2000
   IBTS 2001
   IBTS 2002
   IBTS 2003
   IBTS 2004
   IBTS 2005
   IBTS 2006
   IBTS 2007
   IBTS 2008
   IBTS 97
   IBTS 98
   IBTS 99
   MEDITS 2004
   MEDITS 2005
   MEDITS 2006
   MEDITS 2007
   MEDITS 2008
   MEDITS 2009
   MEDITS-FR2000
   MEDITS-FR2001
   MEDITS-FR2002
   MEDITS-FR2003
   MEDITS-FR97
   MEDITS-FR98
   MEDITS-FR99
BO Thalassa
   L'Europe
DE ;generalized additive model;indicators;likelihood principle;quadratic programming;survey data
AB P>1. Metrics have become a standard way for summarizing environmental monitoring results. Different metrics react differently to natural variations and human-induced stressors. We suggest that combined analysis of time trends in selected biological metrics allows identification of biological processes (e.g. individual growth, mortality or recruitment) that have changed (increased or decreased) persistently. Alternatively, time trends in the abundance of sensitive species could indicate changes in environmental stressors. 2. We calculate the joint likelihood of time trends in three metrics and use it to evaluate the evidence in the data for different combinations of metric time trends. A simulation study provides guidelines for interpreting log-likelihood differences. 3. We illustrate the approach for identifying biological process changes for three North Sea fish stocks (cod Gadus morhua, lesser-spotted dogfish Scyliorhinus canicula and whiting Merlangius merlangius) using metrics derived from international bottom-trawl survey data for the period 1997-2008. Over the period, a decrease in recruitment and several simultaneous process changes were most likely for cod, while a recruitment increase, mortality decrease and several process changes were most likely for lesser-spotted dogfish. No significant persistent process changes were found for whiting. 4. Synthesis and applications. The likelihood approach offers a way of combining monotonic time trends in multiple metrics for identifying persistent changes in exploited populations or environmental stressors, given suitable metric time series and tables for interpreting joint time trends. For data rich fish populations, the proposed method can supplement analytical stock assessments. For many other populations with no fisheries-dependent data, it offers a way to identify population changes, which will be crucial for implementing the ecosystem approach to fisheries management and the European marine strategy framework directive.
PY 2010
PD AUG
SO Journal Of Applied Ecology
SN 0021-8901
PU Wiley-blackwell Publishing, Inc
VL 47
IS 4
UT 000279405100005
BP 751
EP 758
DI 10.1111/j.1365-2664.2010.01824.x
ID 11926
ER

EF