FN Archimer Export Format PT J TI Climate, fishing, and fluctuations of sardine and anchovy in the California Current BT AF LINDEGREN, Martin CHECKLEY, David M., Jr. ROUYER, Tristan MACCALL, Alec D. STENSETH, Nils Chr. AS 1:1;2:1;3:2;4:3;5:4; FF 1:;2:;3:PDG-RBE-HM-RHSETE;4:;5:; C1 Univ Calif San Diego, Scripps Inst Oceanog, San Diego, CA 92093 USA. Inst Francais Rech Exploitat Mer, Unite Mixte Rech Ecosyst Marins Exploites 212, F-34200 Sete, France. NOAA, SW Fisheries Sci Ctr, Natl Marine Fisheries Serv, Santa Cruz, CA 95060 USA. Univ Oslo, Dept Biol Sci, CEES, N-0316 Oslo, Norway. C2 UNIV CALIF SAN DIEGO, USA IFREMER, FRANCE NOAA, USA UNIV OSLO, NORWAY SI SETE SE PDG-RBE-HM-RHSETE IN WOS Ifremer jusqu'en 2018 copubli-europe copubli-int-hors-europe IF 9.809 TC 154 UR https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00152/26353/24446.pdf LA English DT Article DE ;species replacement;population modeling;climate change;ecosystem-based management AB Since the days of Elton, population cycles have challenged ecologists and resource managers. Although the underlying mechanisms remain debated, theory holds that both density-dependent and density-independent processes shape the dynamics. One striking example is the large-scale fluctuations of sardine and anchovy observed across the major upwelling areas of the world. Despite a long history of research, the causes of these fluctuations remain unresolved and heavily debated, with significant implications for fisheries management. We here model the underlying causes of these fluctuations, using the California Current Ecosystem as a case study, and show that the dynamics, accurately reproduced since A.D. 1661 onward, are explained by interacting density-dependent processes (i.e., through species-specific life-history traits) and climate forcing. Furthermore, we demonstrate how fishing modifies the dynamics and show that the sardine collapse of the 1950s was largely unavoidable given poor recruitment conditions. Our approach provides unique insight into the origin of sardine-anchovy fluctuations and a knowledge base for sustainable fisheries management in the California Current Ecosystem and beyond. PY 2013 PD AUG SO Proceedings Of The National Academy Of Sciences Of The United States Of America SN 0027-8424 PU Natl Acad Sciences VL 110 IS 33 UT 000323069200095 BP 13672 EP 13677 DI 10.1073/pnas.1305733110 ID 26353 ER EF