Assessing "Dangerous Climate Change": Required Reduction of Carbon Emissions to Protect Young People, Future Generations and Nature
| Type | Article | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | 2013-12 | ||||||||
| Language | English | ||||||||
| Author(s) | Hansen James1, Kharecha Pushker1, 2, Sato Makiko1, Masson-Delmotte Valerie3, Ackerman Frank4, Beerling David J.5, Hearty Paul J.6, Hoegh-Guldberg Ove7, Hsu S8, Parmesan Camille9, 10, Rockstrom Johan11, Rohling Eelco J.12, 13, Sachs Jeffrey1, Smith Pete14, Steffen Konrad15, Van Susteren Lise16, von Schuckmann Karina17, Zachos James C.18 | ||||||||
| Affiliation(s) | 1 : Columbia Univ, Earth Inst, New York, NY 10027 USA. 2 : NASA, Goddard Inst Space Studies, New York, NY 10025 USA. 3 : CEA CNRS UVSQ, Inst Pierre Simon Laplace, Lab Sci Climat & Environm, Gif Sur Yvette, France. 4 : Synapse Energy Econ, Cambridge, MA USA. 5 : Univ Sheffield, Dept Anim & Plant Sci, Sheffield S10 2TN, S Yorkshire, England. 6 : Univ N Carolina, Dept Environm Studies, Wilmington, NC 28401 USA. 7 : Univ Queensland, Global Change Inst, St Lucia, Qld, Australia. 8 : Florida State Univ, Coll Law, Tallahassee, FL 32306 USA. 9 : Univ Plymouth, Inst Marine, Plymouth PL4 8AA, Devon, England. 10 : Univ Texas Austin, Austin, TX 78712 USA. 11 : Stockholm Univ, Stockholm Resilience Ctr, S-10691 Stockholm, Sweden. 12 : Univ Southampton, Sch Ocean & Earth Sci, Southampton, Hants, England. 13 : Australian Natl Univ, Res Sch Earth Sci, Canberra, ACT, Australia. 14 : Univ Aberdeen, Aberdeen, Scotland. 15 : Swiss Fed Res Inst WSL, Swiss Fed Inst Technol, Zurich, Switzerland. 16 : Harvard Univ, Sch Publ Hlth, Advisory Board, Ctr Hlth & Global Environm, Boston, MA 02115 USA. 17 : Inst Francais Rech Exploitat Mer, Toulon, France. 18 : Univ Calif Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, CA 95064 USA. |
||||||||
| Source | Plos One (1932-6203) (Public Library Science), 2013-12 , Vol. 8 , N. 12 , P. e81648 | ||||||||
| DOI | 10.1371/journal.pone.0081648 | ||||||||
| WOS© Times Cited | 310 | ||||||||
| Abstract | We assess climate impacts of global warming using ongoing observations and paleoclimate data. We use Earth's measured energy imbalance, paleoclimate data, and simple representations of the global carbon cycle and temperature to define emission reductions needed to stabilize climate and avoid potentially disastrous impacts on today's young people, future generations, and nature. A cumulative industrial-era limit of similar to 500 GtC fossil fuel emissions and 100 GtC storage in the biosphere and soil would keep climate close to the Holocene range to which humanity and other species are adapted. Cumulative emissions of similar to 1000 GtC, sometimes associated with 2 degrees C global warming, would spur "slow" feedbacks and eventual warming of 3-4 degrees C with disastrous consequences. Rapid emissions reduction is required to restore Earth's energy balance and avoid ocean heat uptake that would practically guarantee irreversible effects. Continuation of high fossil fuel emissions, given current knowledge of the consequences, would be an act of extraordinary witting intergenerational injustice. Responsible policymaking requires a rising price on carbon emissions that would preclude emissions from most remaining coal and unconventional fossil fuels and phase down emissions from conventional fossil fuels. | ||||||||
| Full Text |
|