Predictive systems ecology

Human societies, and their well-being, depend to a significant extent on the state of the ecosystems that surround them. These ecosystems are changing rapidly usually in response to anthropogenic changes in the environment. To determine the likely impact of environmental change on ecosystems and the best ways to manage them, it would be desirable to be able to predict their future states. We present a proposal to develop the paradigm of predictive systems ecology, explicitly to understand and predict the properties and behaviour of ecological systems. We discuss the necessary and desirable features of predictive systems ecology models. There are places where predictive systems ecology is already being practised and we summarize a range of terrestrial and marine examples. Significant challenges remain but we suggest that ecology would benefit both as a scientific discipline and increase its impact in society if it were to embrace the need to become more predictive.

Keyword(s)

modelling, systems ecology, climate change, ecosystem assessment

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Evans Matthew R., Bithell Mike, Cornell Stephen J., Dall Sasha R. X., Diaz Sandra, Emmott Stephen, Ernande Bruno, Grimm Volker, Hodgson David J., Lewis Simon L., Mace Georgina M., Morecroft Michael, Moustakas Aristides, Murphy Eugene, Newbold Tim, Norris K. J., Petchey Owen, Smith Matthew, Travis Justin M. J., Benton Tim G. (2013). Predictive systems ecology. Proceedings Of The Royal Society B-biological Sciences. 280 (1771). -. https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2013.1452, https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00177/28816/

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