FN Archimer Export Format
PT J
TI Predictive systems ecology
BT 
AF EVANS, Matthew R.
   BITHELL, Mike
   CORNELL, Stephen J.
   DALL, Sasha R. X.
   DIAZ, Sandra
   EMMOTT, Stephen
   ERNANDE, Bruno
   GRIMM, Volker
   HODGSON, David J.
   LEWIS, Simon L.
   MACE, Georgina M.
   MORECROFT, Michael
   MOUSTAKAS, Aristides
   MURPHY, Eugene
   NEWBOLD, Tim
   NORRIS, K. J.
   PETCHEY, Owen
   SMITH, Matthew
   TRAVIS, Justin M. J.
   BENTON, Tim G.
AS 1:1;2:2;3:3;4:4;5:5,6;6:7;7:8;8:9;9:4;10:10;11:11;12:12;13:1;14:13;15:14;16:15;17:16;18:7;19:17;20:18;
FF 1:;2:;3:;4:;5:;6:;7:PDG-RBE-HMMN-RHBL;8:;9:;10:;11:;12:;13:;14:;15:;16:;17:;18:;19:;20:;
C1 Queen Mary Univ London, Sch Biol & Chem Sci, London E1 4NS, England.
   Univ Cambridge, Dept Geog, Cambridge CB2 3EN, England.
   Univ Liverpool, Inst Integrat Biol, Liverpool L69 7ZB, Merseyside, England.
   Univ Exeter, Coll Life & Environm Sci, Ctr Ecol & Conservat, Exeter TR10 9EZ, Devon, England.
   Univ Nacl Cordoba, Inst Multidisciplinario Biol Vegetal CONICET UNC, RA-5000 Cordoba, Argentina.
   Univ Nacl Cordoba, FCEFyN, RA-5000 Cordoba, Argentina.
   Microsoft Res, Computat Sci Lab, Cambridge CB1 2FB, England.
   IFREMER, Lab Ressources Halieut, F-62321 Boulogne Sur Mer, France.
   Helmhotz Ctr Environm Res, Dept Ecol Modelling, D-04318 Leipzig, Germany.
   Univ Leeds, Earth & Biosphere Inst, Leeds LS2 9JT, W Yorkshire, England.
   UCL, Dept Genet Evolut & Environm, Ctr Biodivers & Environm Res, London WC1E 6BT, England.
   Nat England, Winchester SO23 7BT, Hants, England.
   British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge CB3 0ET, England.
   World Conservat Monitoring Ctr, United Nations Environm Programme, Cambridge CB3 0DL, England.
   Univ Reading, Sch Agr Policy & Dev, Ctr Agrienvironm Res, Reading RG6 6AR, Berks, England.
   Univ Zurich, Inst Evolutionary Biol & Environm Studies, CH-8057 Zurich, Switzerland.
   Inst Biol & Environm Sci, Aberdeen AB24 2TZ, Scotland.
   Univ Leeds, Sch Biol, Leeds LS2 9JT, W Yorkshire, England.
C2 UNIV QUEEN MARY LONDON, UK
   UNIV CAMBRIDGE, UK
   UNIV LIVERPOOL, UK
   UNIV EXETER, UK
   UNIV NACL CORDOBA, ARGENTINA
   UNIV NACL CORDOBA, ARGENTINA
   MICROSOFT RES, UK
   IFREMER, FRANCE
   HELMHOTZ CTR ENVIRONM RES, GERMANY
   UNIV LEEDS, UK
   UNIV COLL LONDON, UK
   NAT ENGLAND, UK
   BRITISH ANTARCTIC SURVEY, UK
   WORLD CONSERVAT MONITORING CTR, UK
   UNIV READING, UK
   UNIV ZURICH, SWITZERLAND
   INST BIOL & ENVIRONM SCI, UK
   UNIV LEEDS, UK
SI BOULOGNE
SE PDG-RBE-HMMN-RHBL
IN WOS Ifremer jusqu'en 2018
   copubli-europe
   copubli-int-hors-europe
   copubli-sud
IF 5.292
TC 95
UR https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00177/28816/27291.pdf
LA English
DT Article
DE ;modelling;systems ecology;climate change;ecosystem assessment
AB Human societies, and their well-being, depend to a significant extent on the state of the ecosystems that surround them. These ecosystems are changing rapidly usually in response to anthropogenic changes in the environment. To determine the likely impact of environmental change on ecosystems and the best ways to manage them, it would be desirable to be able to predict their future states. We present a proposal to develop the paradigm of predictive systems ecology, explicitly to understand and predict the properties and behaviour of ecological systems. We discuss the necessary and desirable features of predictive systems ecology models. There are places where predictive systems ecology is already being practised and we summarize a range of terrestrial and marine examples. Significant challenges remain but we suggest that ecology would benefit both as a scientific discipline and increase its impact in society if it were to embrace the need to become more predictive.
PY 2013
PD NOV
SO Proceedings Of The Royal Society B-biological Sciences
SN 0962-8452
PU Royal Soc
VL 280
IS 1771
UT 000330324900004
DI 10.1098/rspb.2013.1452
ID 28816
ER

EF