FN Archimer Export Format
PT J
TI Hazard warning: model misuse ahead
BT 
AF DICKEY-COLLAS, Mark
   PAYNE, Mark R.
   TRENKEL, Verena M.
   NASH, Richard D. M.
AS 1:1;2:2;3:3;4:4;
FF 1:;2:;3:PDG-RBE-EMH;4:;
C1 ICES, DK-1553 Copenhagen, Denmark.
   DTU Aqua, DK-2920 Charlottenlund, Denmark.
   IFREMER, F-44300 Nantes 03, France.
   IMR, N-5817 Bergen, Norway.
C2 ICES, DENMARK
   UNIV TECH DENMARK (DTU AQUA), DENMARK
   IFREMER, FRANCE
   INST MARINE RES, NORWAY
SI NANTES
SE PDG-RBE-EMH
IN WOS Ifremer jusqu'en 2018
   copubli-europe
IF 2.377
TC 40
UR https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00222/33371/32179.pdf
LA English
DT Article
DE ;climate;fisheries;GAM;management;prediction;projection;recruitment;time-series analysis
AB The use of modelling approaches in marine science, and in particular fisheries science, is explored. We highlight that the choice of model used for an analysis should account for the question being posed or the context of the management problem. We examine a model-classification scheme based on Richard Levins' 1966 work suggesting that models can only achieve two of three desirable model attributes: realism, precision, and generality. Model creation, therefore, requires trading-off of one of these attributes in favour of the other two: however, this is often in conflict with the desires of end-users (i.e. mangers or policy developers). The combination of attributes leads to models that are considered to have empirical, mechanistic, or analytical characteristics, but not a combination of them. In fisheries science, many examples can be found of models with these characteristics. However, we suggest that models or techniques are often employed without consideration of their limitations, such as projecting into unknown space without generalism, or fitting empirical models and inferring causality. We suggest that the idea of trade-offs and limitations in modelling be considered as an essential first step in assessing the utility of a model in the context of knowledge for decision-making in management.
PY 2014
PD OCT
SO Ices Journal Of Marine Science
SN 1054-3139
PU Oxford Univ Press
VL 71
IS 8
UT 000343317100029
BP 2300
EP 2306
DI 10.1093/icesjms/fst215
ID 33371
ER

EF