FN Archimer Export Format PT J TI Probabilistic approach of water residence time and connectivity using Markov Chains with application to tidal embayments BT AF BACHER, Cedric FILGUEIRA, R. GUYONDET, T. AS 1:1;2:2;3:2; FF 1:PDG-ODE-DYNECO;2:;3:; C1 IFREMER, F-29280 Plouzane, France. Gulf Fisheries Ctr, Dept Fisheries & Oceans, Sci Branch, Moncton, NB E1C 9B6, Canada. C2 IFREMER, FRANCE MPO, CANADA SI BREST SE PDG-ODE-DYNECO IN WOS Ifremer jusqu'en 2018 copubli-int-hors-europe IF 2.439 TC 8 UR https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00280/39124/37677.pdf LA English DT Article DE ;Transfer time;Transfer rate;Residual flow;Indicators;Aquaculture;Hydrodynamics AB Markov Chain analysis was recently proposed to assess the time scales and preferential pathways into biological or physical networks by computing residence time, first passage time, rates of transfer between nodes and number of passages in a node. We propose to adapt an algorithm already published for simple systems to physical systems described with a high resolution hydrodynamic model. The method is applied to bays and estuaries on the Eastern Coast of Canada for their interest in shellfish aquaculture. Current velocities have been computed by using a 2 dimensional grid of elements and circulation patterns were summarized by averaging Eulerian flows between adjacent elements. Flows and volumes allow computing probabilities of transition between elements and to assess the average time needed by virtual particles to move from one element to another, the rate of transfer between two elements, and the average residence time of each system. We also combined transfer rates and times to assess the main pathways of virtual particles released in farmed areas and the potential influence of farmed areas on other areas. We suggest that Markov chain is complementary to other sets of ecological indicators proposed to analyse the interactions between farmed areas - e.g. depletion index, carrying capacity assessment. Markov Chain has several advantages with respect to the estimation of connectivity between pair of sites. It makes possible to estimate transfer rates and times at once in a very quick and efficient way, without the need to perform long term simulations of particle or tracer concentration. PY 2016 PD JAN SO Journal Of Marine Systems SN 0924-7963 PU Elsevier Science Bv VL 153 UT 000365064200004 BP 25 EP 41 DI 10.1016/j.jmarsys.2015.09.002 ID 39124 ER EF