Revealing the Micro-scale Signature of Endemic Zoonotic Disease Transmission in an African Urban Setting
| Type | Article | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | 2016-04 | ||||||||||||
| Language | English | ||||||||||||
| Author(s) | Bourhy Herve1, Nakoune Emmanuel2, Hall Matthew3, 4, Nouvellet Pierre4, 5, Lepelletier Anthony1, Talbi Chiraz1, Watier Laurence 6, 7, 8, Holmes Edward C.9, 10, Cauchemez Simon4, 5, 11, Lemey Philippe12, Donnelly Christl A.4, 5, Rambaut Andrew3, 13 |
||||||||||||
| Affiliation(s) | 1 : WHO Collaborating Ctr Reference & Res Rabies, Unit Lyssavirus Dynam & Host Adaptat, Inst Pasteur, Paris, France. 2 : Inst Pasteur, Bangui, Cent Afr Republ. 3 : Univ Edinburgh, Inst Evolutionary Biol, Ashworth Labs, Edinburgh, Midlothian, Scotland. 4 : Univ London Imperial Coll Sci Technol & Med, Dept Infect Dis Epidemiol, London, England. 5 : Univ London Imperial Coll Sci Technol & Med, Med Res Council, Ctr Outbreak Anal & Modelling, Dept Infect Dis Epidemiol, London, England. 6 : INSERM, UMR 1181, Paris, France. 7 : Inst Pasteur, B2PHI, Paris, France. 8 : Univ Versailles St Quentin, Fac Med Paris Ile France Ouest, Versailles, France. 9 : Sch Life & Environm Sci, Charles Perkins Ctr, Marie Bashir Inst Infect Dis & Biosecur, Sydney, NSW, Australia. 10 : Sydney Med Sch, Sydney, NSW, Australia. 11 : Inst Pasteur, Math Modelling Infect Dis Unit, Paris, France. 12 : Katholieke Univ Leuven, Rega Inst, Leuven, Belgium. 13 : NIH, Fogarty Int Ctr, Bldg 10, Bethesda, MD 20892 USA. |
||||||||||||
| Source | Plos Pathogens (1553-7366) (Public Library Science), 2016-04 , Vol. 12 , N. 4 , P. e1005525 | ||||||||||||
| DOI | 10.1371/journal.ppat.1005525 | ||||||||||||
| WOS© Times Cited | 55 | ||||||||||||
| Abstract | The development of novel approaches that combine epidemiological and genomic data provides new opportunities to reveal the spatiotemporal dynamics of infectious diseases and determine the processes responsible for their spread and maintenance. Taking advantage of detailed epidemiological time series and viral sequence data from more than 20 years reported by the National Reference Centre for Rabies of Bangui, the capital city of Central African Republic, we used a combination of mathematical modeling and phylogenetic analysis to determine the spatiotemporal dynamics of rabies in domestic dogs as well as the frequency of extinction and introduction events in an African city. We show that although dog rabies virus (RABV) appears to be endemic in Bangui, its epidemiology is in fact shaped by the regular extinction of local chains of transmission coupled with the introduction of new lineages, generating successive waves of spread. Notably, the effective reproduction number during each wave was rarely above the critical value of 1, such that rabies is not self-sustaining in Bangui. In turn, this suggests that rabies at local geographic scales is driven by human-mediated dispersal of RABV among sparsely connected peri-urban and rural areas as opposed to dispersion in a relatively large homogenous urban dog population. This combined epidemiological and genomic approach enables development of a comprehensive framework for understanding disease persistence and informing control measures, indicating that control measures are probably best targeted towards areas neighbouring the city that appear as the source of frequent incursions seeding outbreaks in Bangui. | ||||||||||||
| Full Text |
|