FN Archimer Export Format
PT J
TI Future change in ocean productivity: Is the Arctic the new Atlantic?
BT 
AF YOOL, A.
   POPOVA, E. E.
   COWARD, A. C.
AS 1:1;2:1;3:1;
FF 1:;2:;3:;
C1 Univ Southampton, Natl Oceanog Ctr, Southampton, Hants, England.
C2 UNIV SOUTHAMPTON, UK
TC 60
UR https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00332/44367/43972.pdf
   https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00332/44367/43977.pdf
   https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00332/44367/43978.zip
LA English
DT Article
DE ;marine;ocean;biogeochemistry;Arctic;Atlantic;future
AB One of the most characteristic features in ocean productivity is the North Atlantic spring bloom. Responding to seasonal increases in irradiance and stratification, surface phytopopulations rise significantly, a pattern that visibly tracks poleward into summer. While blooms also occur in the Arctic Ocean, they are constrained by the sea-ice and strong vertical stratification that characterize this region. However, Arctic sea-ice is currently declining, and forecasts suggest this may lead to completely ice-free summers by the mid-21st century. Such change may open the Arctic up to Atlantic-style spring blooms, and do so at the same time as Atlantic productivity is threatened by climate change-driven ocean stratification. Here we use low and high-resolution instances of a coupled ocean-biogeochemistry model, NEMO-MEDUSA, to investigate productivity. Drivers of present-day patterns are identified, and changes in these across a climate change scenario (IPCC RCP 8.5) are analyzed. We find a globally significant decline in North Atlantic productivity (> -20%) by 2100, and a correspondingly significant rise in the Arctic (> +50%). However, rather than the future Arctic coming to resemble the current Atlantic, both regions are instead transitioning to a common, low nutrient regime. The North Pacific provides a counterexample where nutrients remain high and productivity increases with elevated temperature. These responses to climate change in the Atlantic and Arctic are common between model resolutions, suggesting an independence from resolution for key impacts. However, some responses, such as those in the North Pacific, differ between the simulations, suggesting the reverse and supporting the drive to more fine-scale resolutions.
PY 2015
PD DEC
SO Journal Of Geophysical Research-oceans
SN 0148-0027
PU Amer Geophysical Union
VL 120
IS 12
UT 000369153200004
BP 7771
EP 7790
DI 10.1002/2015JC011167
ID 44367
ER

EF