FN Archimer Export Format PT J TI Modeling the intense 2012-2013 dense water formation event in the northwestern Mediterranean Sea: Evaluation with an ensemble simulation approach BT AF WALDMAN, Robin SOMOT, Samuel HERRMANN, Marine BOSSE, Anthony CANIAUX, Guy ESTOURNEL, Claude HOUPERT, Loic PRIEUR, Louis SEVAULT, Florence TESTOR, Pierre AS 1:1;2:1;3:2;4:3;5:1;6:4;7:5;8:6;9:1;10:3; FF 1:;2:;3:;4:;5:;6:;7:;8:;9:;10:; C1 Meteo France, CNRS, UMR 3589, CNRM, Toulouse, France. Univ Toulouse, CNRS, UMR5566, LEGOS, Toulouse, France. Univ Paris 06, CNRS, LOCEAN, Paris, France. Univ Toulouse, CNRS, LA, Toulouse, France. SAMS, Oban, Argyll, Scotland. Lab Oceanog Villefranche Sur Mer, Villefranche Sur Mer, France. C2 CNRM (METEO FRANCE), FRANCE UNIV TOULOUSE, FRANCE UNIV PARIS 06, FRANCE UNIV TOULOUSE, FRANCE SAMS SCOTLAND, UK UNIV PARIS 06, FRANCE IF 2.711 TC 20 UR https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00363/47379/47365.pdf https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00363/47379/47367.pdf https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00363/47379/47368.pdf https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00363/47379/47369.pdf https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00363/47379/47370.pdf LA English DT Article CR DEWEX-MERMEX 2013 LEG1 DEWEX-MERMEX 2013 LEG2 MOOSE-GE 2012 BO Le SuroƮt AB The northwestern Mediterranean Sea is a well-observed ocean deep convection site. Winter 2012-2013 was an intense and intensely documented dense water formation (DWF) event. We evaluate this DWF event in an ensemble configuration of the regional ocean model NEMOMED12. We then assess for the first time the impact of ocean intrinsic variability on DWF with a novel perturbed initial state ensemble method. Finally, we identify the main physical mechanisms driving water mass transformations. NEMOMED12 reproduces accurately the deep convection chronology between late January and March, its location off the Gulf of Lions although with a southward shift and its magnitude. It fails to reproduce the Western Mediterranean Deep Waters salinification and warming, consistently with too strong a surface heat loss. The Ocean Intrinsic Variability modulates half of the DWF area, especially in the open-sea where the bathymetry slope is low. It modulates marginally (3-5\%) the integrated DWF rate, but its increase with time suggests its impact could be larger at interannual timescales. We conclude that ensemble frameworks are necessary to evaluate accurately numerical simulations of DWF. Each phase of DWF has distinct diapycnal and thermohaline regimes: during preconditioning, the Mediterranean thermohaline circulation is driven by exchanges with the Algerian basin. During the intense mixing phase, surface heat fluxes trigger deep convection and internal mixing largely determines the resulting deep water properties. During restratification, lateral exchanges and internal mixing are enhanced. Finally, isopycnal mixing was shown to play a large role in water mass transformations during the preconditioning and restratification phases. PY 2017 PD FEB SO Journal Of Geophysical Research-oceans SN 2169-9275 PU Amer Geophysical Union VL 122 IS 2 UT 000398063100031 BP 1297 EP 1324 DI 10.1002/2016JC012437 ID 47379 ER EF