Global Carbon Budget 2016

Type Article
Date 2016-11
Language English
Author(s) Le Quere Corinne1, Andrew Robbie M.2, Canadell Josep G.3, Sitch Stephen4, Korsbakken Jan Ivar2, Peters Glen P.2, Manning Andrew C.5, Boden Thomas A.6, Tans Pieter P.7, Houghton Richard A.8, Keeling Ralph F.9, Alin Simone10, Andrews Oliver D.1, Anthoni Peter11, Barbero Leticia12, 13, Bopp Laurent14, Chevallier Frederic14, Chini Louise P.15, Ciais Philippe14, Currie Kim16, Delire Christine17, Doney Scott C.18, Friedlingstein Pierre19, Gkritzalis Thanos20, Harris Ian21, Hauck Judith22, Haverd Vanessa23, Hoppema Mario22, Goldewijk Kees Klein24, 25, Jain Atul K.26, Kato Etsushi27, Koertzinger Arne28, Landschuetzer Peter29, Lefevre Nathalie30, Lenton AndrewORCID31, Lienert Sebastian32, 33, Lombardozzi Danica34, Melton Joe R.35, Metzl Nicolas30, Millero Frank36, Monteiro Pedro M. S.37, Munro David R.38, 39, Nabel Julia E. M. S.29, Nakaoka Shin-Ichiro40, O'Brien Kevin41, Olsen Are42, 43, Omar Abdirahman M.42, 43, Ono Tsuneo44, Pierrot Denis12, 13, Poulter Benjamin45, 46, Roedenbeck Christian47, Salisbury Joe48, Schuster Ute4, Schwinger Joerg49, Seferian Roland17, Skjelvan Ingunn49, Stocker Benjamin D.50, Sutton Adrienne J.10, 41, Takahashi Taro51, Tian Hanqin52, Tilbrook Bronte53, 54, Van Der Laan-Luijkx Ingrid T.55, Van Der Werf Guido R.56, Viovy Nicolas14, Walker Anthony P.57, 58, Wiltshire Andrew J.59, Zaehle Soenke47
Affiliation(s) 1 : Univ East Anglia, Tyndall Ctr Climate Change Res, Norwich Res Pk, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England.
2 : Ctr Int Climate & Environm Res Oslo, Oslo, Norway.
3 : CSIRO Oceans & Atmosphere, Global Carbon Project, GPO Box 3023, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia.
4 : Univ Exeter, Coll Life & Environm Sci, Exeter EX4 4RJ, Devon, England.
5 : Univ East Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Ctr Ocean & Atmospher Sci, Norwich Res Pk, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England.
6 : Oak Ridge Natl Lab, Carbon Dioxide Informat Anal Ctr, Oak Ridge, TN 37830 USA.
7 : Natl Ocean & Atmospher Adm, Earth Syst Res Lab NOAA ESRL, Boulder, CO 80305 USA.
8 : Woods Hole Res Ctr, Falmouth, MA 02540 USA.
9 : Univ Calif San Diego, Scripps Inst Oceanog, La Jolla, CA 92093 USA.
10 : Natl Ocean & Atmospher Adm, Pacific Marine Environm Lab, 7600 Sand Point Way NE, Seattle, WA 98115 USA.
11 : Inst Meteorol & Climate Res Atmospher Environm Re, Karlsruhe Inst Technol, D-82467 Garmisch Partenkirchen, Germany.
12 : Univ Miami, Rosenstiel Sch Marine & Atmospher Sci, Cooperat Inst Marine & Atmospher Studies, Miami, FL 33149 USA.
13 : Natl Ocean & Atmospher Adm, Atlant Oceanog & Meteorol Lab, Miami, FL 33149 USA.
14 : CEA, CNRS, UVSQ, Inst Pierre Simon Laplace,Lab Sci Climat & Enviro, F-91191 Gif Sur Yvette, France.
15 : Univ Maryland, Dept Geog Sci, College Pk, MD 20742 USA.
16 : Natl Inst Water & Atmospher Res, Dunedin 9054, New Zealand.
17 : CNRS, Ctr Natl Rech Meteorol, Unite Mixte Rech Meteo France 3589, 42 Ave Gaspard Coriolis, F-31100 Toulouse, France.
18 : Woods Hole Oceanog Inst, Woods Hole, MA 02543 USA.
19 : Univ Exeter, Coll Engn Math & Phys Sci, Exeter EX4 4QF, Devon, England.
20 : InnovOcean, Flanders Marine Inst, Wandelaarkaai 7, B-8400 Oostende, Belgium.
21 : Univ East Anglia, Climat Res Unit, Norwich Res Pk, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England.
22 : Helmholtz Ctr Polar & Marine Res, Alfred Wegener Inst, D-120161 Postfach, Germany.
23 : CSIRO Oceans & Atmosphere, GPO Box 1700, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia.
24 : PBL Netherlands Environm Assessment Agcy, The Hague, Netherlands.
25 : Univ Utrecht, Utrecht, Netherlands.
26 : Univ Illinois, Dept Atmospher Sci, Urbana, IL 61821 USA.
27 : Inst Appl Energy, Minato Ku, Tokyo 1050003, Japan.
28 : GEOMAR Helmholtz Ctr Ocean Res Kiel, Dusternbrooker Weg 20, D-24105 Kiel, Germany.
29 : Max Planck Inst Meteorol, Bundesstr 53, D-20146 Hamburg, Germany.
30 : Univ Paris 06, Sorbonne Univ, CNRS, IRD,MNHN,LOCEAN IPSL Lab, F-75252 Paris, France.
31 : CSIRO Oceans & Atmosphere, POB 1538, Hobart, Tas, Australia.
32 : Univ Bern, Inst Phys, Climate & Environm Phys, Bern, Switzerland.
33 : Univ Bern, Oeschger Ctr Climate Change Res, Bern, Switzerland.
34 : Natl Ctr Atmospher Res Climate & Global Dynam, Terr Sci Sect, Boulder, CO 80305 USA.
35 : Climate Res Div, Environm & Climate Change Canada, Victoria, BC, Canada.
36 : Univ Miami, RSMAS, MAC, Dept Ocean Sci, 4600 Rickenbacker Causeway, Miami, FL 33149 USA.
37 : CSIR, CHPC, Ocean Syst & Climate, Cape Town ZA-7700, South Africa.
38 : Univ Colorado, Dept Atmospher & Ocean Sci, Campus Box 450, Boulder, CO 80309 USA.
39 : Univ Colorado, Inst Arct & Alpine Res, Campus Box 450, Boulder, CO 80309 USA.
40 : Natl Inst Environm Studies, Ctr Global Environm Res, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 3058506, Japan.
41 : Univ Washington, Joint Inst Study Atmosphere & Ocean, Seattle, WA 98195 USA.
42 : Univ Bergen, Inst Geophys, Allegaten 70, N-5007 Bergen, Norway.
43 : Univ Bergen, Bjerknes Ctr Climate Res, Allegaten 70, N-5007 Bergen, Norway.
44 : Japan Fisheries Res & Educ Agcy, Natl Res Inst Far Sea Fisheries, 2-12-4 Fukuura, Yokohama, Kanagawa 2368648, Japan.
45 : NASA, Goddard Space Flight Ctr, Biospher Sci Lab, Greenbelt, MD 20771 USA.
46 : Montana State Univ, Dept Ecol, Bozeman, MT 59717 USA.
47 : Max Planck Inst Biogeochem, POB 600164,Hans Knoll Str 10, D-07745 Jena, Germany.
48 : Univ New Hampshire, Ocean Proc Anal Lab, 161 Morse Hall,8 Coll Rd, Durham, NH 03824 USA.
49 : Uni Res Climate, Bjerknes Ctr Climate Res, Nygardsgaten 112, N-5008 Bergen, Norway.
50 : Univ London Imperial Coll Sci Technol & Med, Dept Life Sci, Silwood Pk, Ascot SL5 7PY, Berks, England.
51 : Columbia Univ, Lamont Doherty Earth Observ, Palisades, NY 10964 USA.
52 : Auburn Univ, Sch Forestry & Wildlife Sci, 602 Ducan Dr, Auburn, AL 36849 USA.
53 : CSIRO Oceans & Atmosphere, Hobart, Tas, Australia.
54 : Antarct Climate & Ecosyst Cooperat Res Ctr, Hobart, Tas, Australia.
55 : Wageningen Univ & Res, Dept Meteorol & Air Qual, POB 47, NL-6700 AA Wageningen, Netherlands.
56 : Vrije Univ Amsterdam, Fac Earth & Life Sci, Amsterdam, Netherlands.
57 : Oak Ridge Natl Lab, Div Environm Sci, Oak Ridge, TN 37830 USA.
58 : Oak Ridge Natl Lab, Climate Change Sci Inst, Oak Ridge, TN 37830 USA.
59 : Met Off Hadley Ctr, FitzRoy Rd, Exeter EX1 3PB, Devon, England.
Source Earth System Science Data (1866-3508) (Copernicus Gesellschaft Mbh), 2016-11 , Vol. 8 , N. 2 , P. 605-649
DOI 10.5194/essd-8-605-2016
WOS© Times Cited 965
Abstract

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere - the "global carbon budget" - is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics, and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates and consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations. CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry (E-FF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, respectively, while emissions from land-use change (E-LUC), mainly deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover change data, fire activity associated with deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (G(ATM)) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The mean ocean CO2 sink (S-OCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in S-OCEAN is evaluated with data products based on surveys of ocean CO2 measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (S-LAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of independent dynamic global vegetation models. We compare the mean land and ocean fluxes and their variability to estimates from three atmospheric inverse methods for three broad latitude bands. All uncertainties are reported as +/- 1 sigma, reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. For the last decade available (2006-2015), E-FF was 9.3 +/- 0.5 GtC yr(-1), E-LUC 1.0 +/- 0.5 GtC yr(-1), G(ATM) 4.5 +/- 0.1 GtC yr(-1), S-OCEAN 2.6 +/- 0.5 GtC yr(-1), and S-LAND 3.1 +/- 0.9 GtC yr(-1). For year 2015 alone, the growth in E-FF was approximately zero and emissions remained at 9.9 +/- 0.5 GtC yr(-1), showing a slowdown in growth of these emissions compared to the average growth of 1.8% yr(-1) that took place during 2006-2015. Also, for 2015, E-LUC was 1.3 +/- 0.5 GtC yr(-1), G(ATM) was 6.3 +/- 0.2 GtC yr(-1), S-OCEAN was 3.0 +/- 0.5 GtC yr(-1), and S-LAND was 1.9 +/- 0.9 GtC yr(-1). G(ATM) was higher in 2015 compared to the past decade (2006-2015), reflecting a smaller S-LAND for that year. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 399.4 +/- 0.1 ppm averaged over 2015. For 2016, preliminary data indicate the continuation of low growth in E-FF with +0.2% (range of -1.0 to +1.8 %) based on national emissions projections for China and USA, and projections of gross domestic product corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy for the rest of the world. In spite of the low growth of E-FF in 2016, the growth rate in atmospheric CO2 concentration is expected to be relatively high because of the persistence of the smaller residual terrestrial sink (S-LAND) in response to El Nino conditions of 2015-2016. From this projection of E-FF and assumed constant E-LUC for 2016, cumulative emissions of CO2 will reach 565 +/- 55 GtC (2075 +/- 205 GtCO(2)) for 1870-2016, about 75% from E-FF and 25% from E-LUC. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new carbon budget compared with previous publications of this data set (Le Quere et al., 2015b, a, 2014, 2013). All observations presented here can be downloaded from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (doi: 10.3334/CDIAC/GCP_2016).

Full Text
File Pages Size Access
Publisher's official version 45 3 MB Open access
Top of the page

How to cite 

Le Quere Corinne, Andrew Robbie M., Canadell Josep G., Sitch Stephen, Korsbakken Jan Ivar, Peters Glen P., Manning Andrew C., Boden Thomas A., Tans Pieter P., Houghton Richard A., Keeling Ralph F., Alin Simone, Andrews Oliver D., Anthoni Peter, Barbero Leticia, Bopp Laurent, Chevallier Frederic, Chini Louise P., Ciais Philippe, Currie Kim, Delire Christine, Doney Scott C., Friedlingstein Pierre, Gkritzalis Thanos, Harris Ian, Hauck Judith, Haverd Vanessa, Hoppema Mario, Goldewijk Kees Klein, Jain Atul K., Kato Etsushi, Koertzinger Arne, Landschuetzer Peter, Lefevre Nathalie, Lenton Andrew, Lienert Sebastian, Lombardozzi Danica, Melton Joe R., Metzl Nicolas, Millero Frank, Monteiro Pedro M. S., Munro David R., Nabel Julia E. M. S., Nakaoka Shin-Ichiro, O'Brien Kevin, Olsen Are, Omar Abdirahman M., Ono Tsuneo, Pierrot Denis, Poulter Benjamin, Roedenbeck Christian, Salisbury Joe, Schuster Ute, Schwinger Joerg, Seferian Roland, Skjelvan Ingunn, Stocker Benjamin D., Sutton Adrienne J., Takahashi Taro, Tian Hanqin, Tilbrook Bronte, Van Der Laan-Luijkx Ingrid T., Van Der Werf Guido R., Viovy Nicolas, Walker Anthony P., Wiltshire Andrew J., Zaehle Soenke (2016). Global Carbon Budget 2016. Earth System Science Data, 8(2), 605-649. Publisher's official version : https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-8-605-2016 , Open Access version : https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00383/49401/