Global Air-Sea CO2 Flux in 22 CMIP5 Models: Multiyear Mean and Interannual Variability*

Type Article
Date 2016-04
Language English
Author(s) Dong Fang1, 2, Li Yangchun3, Wang Bin4, 5, 6, Huang WenyuORCID4, 5, Shi Yanyan4, 5, Dong Wenhao4, 5
Affiliation(s) 1 : Tsinghua Univ, Minist Educ, Key Lab Earth Syst Modeling, Ctr Earth Syst Sci, Beijing 100084, Peoples R China.
2 : Tsinghua Univ, Sch Environm, Beijing 100084, Peoples R China.
3 : Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, State Key Lab Atmospher Boundary Layer Phys & Atm, Beijing, Peoples R China.
4 : Tsinghua Univ, Minist Educ, Key Lab Earth Syst Modeling, Beijing 100084, Peoples R China.
5 : Tsinghua Univ, Ctr Earth Syst Sci, Beijing 100084, Peoples R China.
6 : Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, State Key Lab Numer Modeling Atmospher Sci & Geop, Beijing, Peoples R China.
Source Journal Of Climate (0894-8755) (Amer Meteorological Soc), 2016-04 , Vol. 29 , N. 7 , P. 2407-2431
DOI 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00788.1
WOS© Times Cited 21
Keyword(s) Interannual variability, Model output statistics, Model comparison, Variability, Models and modeling, Ocean models, Ensembles, Climate models
Abstract

To assess the capability of the latest Earth system models (ESMs) in representing historical global air-sea CO2 flux, 22 models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparision Project (CMIP5) are analyzed, with a focus on the spatial distribution of multiyear mean and interannual variability. Results show that the global distribution of air-sea CO2 flux is reasonable in most of the models and that the main differences between models and observationally based results exist in regions with strong vertical movement. The annual mean flux in the 18-member multimodel ensemble (MME; four models were excluded because of their poor performances) mean during 1996-2004 is 1.95 Pg C yr(-1) (1 Pg = 10(15) g; positive values mean into the ocean), and all but one model describe the rapid increasing trend of air-sea CO2 flux observed during 1960-2000. The first mode of the global air-sea CO2 flux variability during 1870-2000 in six of the models represents the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) mode. The remaining 12 models fail to represent this important character for the following reasons: in five models, the tropical Pacific does not play a dominant role in the interannual variability of global air-sea CO2 flux because of stronger interannual variability in the Southern Ocean; two models poorly represent the interannual fluctuation of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) in the surface ocean of the tropical Pacific; and four models have shorter periods of the air-sea CO2 flux, which are out of the period range of ENSO events.

Full Text
File Pages Size Access
Publisher's official version 25 7 MB Open access
Supplementary materials 9 3 MB Open access
Top of the page