Global Carbon Budget 2015
| Type | Article | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | 2015 | ||||||||
| Language | English | ||||||||
| Author(s) | Le Quere C.1, Moriarty R.1, Andrew R. M.2, Canadell J. G.3, Sitch S.4, Korsbakken J. I.2, Friedlingstein P.5, Peters G. P.2, Andres R. J.6, Boden T. A.6, Houghton R. A.7, House J. I.8, Keeling R. F.9, Tans P.10, Arneth A.11, Bakker D. C. E.12, Barbero L.13, 14, Bopp L.15, Chang J.15, Chevallier F.15, Chini L. P.16, Ciais P.15, Fader M.17, Feely R. A.18, Gkritzalis T.19, Harris I.20, Hauck J.21, Ilyina T.22, Jain A. K.23, Kato E.24, Kitidis V.25, Goldewijk K. Klein26, 27, Koven C.28, Landschuetzer P.29, Lauvset S. K.30, Lefevre N.31, Lenton A.32, Lima I. D.33, Metzl N.31, Millero F.34, Munro D. R.35, 36, Murata A.37, Nabel J. E. M. S.22, Nakaoka S.38, Nojiri Y.38, O'Brien K.39, Olsen A.40, 41, Ono T.42, Perez Florian43, Pfeil B.40, 41, Pierrot D.13, 14, Poulter B.44, Rehder G.45, Roedenbeck C.46, Saito S.47, Schuster U.4, Schwinger J.30, Seferian R.48, Steinhoff T.49, Stocker B. D.50, 51, 52, Sutton A. J.18, 39, Takahashi T.53, Tilbrook B.32, 54, Van Der Laan-Luijkx I. T.55, 56, Van Der Werf G. R.57, Van Heuven S.58, Vandemark D.59, Viovy N.15, Wiltshire A.60, Zaehle S.46, Zeng N.61 | ||||||||
| Affiliation(s) | 1 : Univ E Anglia, Tyndall Ctr Climate Change Res, Norwich Res Pk, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. 2 : Ctr Int Climate & Environm Res Oslo CICERO, Oslo, Norway. 3 : CSIRO Oceans & Atmosphere, Global Carbon Project, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia. 4 : Univ Exeter, Coll Life & Environm Sci, Exeter EX4 4QE, Devon, England. 5 : Univ Exeter, Coll Engn Math & Phys Sci, Exeter EX4 4QE, Devon, England. 6 : Oak Ridge Natl Lab, Carbon Dioxide Informat Anal Ctr CDIAC, Oak Ridge, TN USA. 7 : Woods Hole Res Ctr WHRC, Falmouth, MA 02540 USA. 8 : Univ Bristol, Cabot Inst, Dept Geog, Bristol BS8 1TH, Avon, England. 9 : Univ Calif San Diego, Scripps Inst Oceanog, La Jolla, CA 92093 USA. 10 : NOAA, ESRL, Boulder, CO 80305 USA. 11 : Karlsruhe Inst Technol KIT, Inst Meteorol & Climate Res Atmospher Environm Re, D-82467 Garmisch Partenkirchen, Germany. 12 : Univ E Anglia, Ctr Ocean & Atmospher Sci, Sch Environm Sci, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. 13 : Univ Miami, Rosenstiel Sch Marine & Atmospher Sci, Cooperat Inst Marine & Atmospher Studies, Miami, FL 33149 USA. 14 : NOAA, Atlantic Oceanog & Meteorol Lab, Miami, FL 33149 USA. 15 : CE Orme Merisiers, UVSQ, CNRS,CEA, Lab Sci Climat & Envirom,Inst Pierre Simon Laplac, F-91191 Gif Sur Yvette, France. 16 : Univ Maryland, Dept Geog Sci, College Pk, MD 20742 USA. 17 : Avignon Univ, CNRS, Inst Mediterraneen Biodiversite & Ecol Marine & C, Aix Marseille Univ,IRD, F-13545 Aix En Provence 04, France. 18 : NOAA, Pacific Marine Environm Lab, Seattle, WA 98115 USA. 19 : InnovOcean Site, Flanders Marine Inst, B-8400 Oostende, Belgium. 20 : Univ E Anglia, Climat Res Unit, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. 21 : Helmholtz Zentrum Polar & Meeresforsch, Alfred Wegener Inst, D-27570 Bremerhaven, Germany. 22 : Max Planck Inst Meteorol, D-20146 Hamburg, Germany. 23 : Univ Illinois, Dept Atmospher Sci, Urbana, IL 61821 USA. 24 : Inst Appl Energy IAE, Minato Ku, Tokyo 1050003, Japan. 25 : Plymouth Marine Lab, Plymouth PL1 3DH, Devon, England. 26 : PBL Netherlands Environm Assessment Agcy, The Hague, Netherlands. 27 : Univ Utrecht, Utrecht, Netherlands. 28 : Univ Calif Berkeley, Lawrence Berkeley Natl Lab, Div Earth Sci, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA. 29 : ETH, Environm Phys Grp, Inst Biogeochem & Pollutant Dynam, CH-8092 Zurich, Switzerland. 30 : Uni Res Climate, Bjerknes Ctr Climate Res, N-5007 Bergen, Norway. 31 : Univ Paris 06, Sorbonne Univ, LOCEAN IPSL Lab, CNRS,IRD,MNHN, F-75005 Paris, France. 32 : CSIRO Oceans & Atmosphere, Hobart, Tas, Australia. 33 : Woods Hole Oceanog Inst WHOI, Woods Hole, MA 02543 USA. 34 : Univ Miami, RSMAS MAC, Dept Ocean Sci, Miami, FL 33149 USA. 35 : Univ Colorado, Dept Atmospher & Ocean Sci, Boulder, CO 80309 USA. 36 : Univ Colorado, Inst Arctic & Alpine Res, Boulder, CO 80309 USA. 37 : Japan Agcy Marine Earth Sci & Technol JAMSTEC, Yokosuka, Kanagawa 2370061, Japan. 38 : Natl Inst Environm Studies NIES, Ctr Global Environm Res, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 3058506, Japan. 39 : Univ Washington, Joint Inst Study Atmosphere & Ocean, Seattle, WA 98115 USA. 40 : Univ Bergen, Inst Geophys, N-5007 Bergen, Norway. 41 : Bjerknes Ctr Climate Res, N-5007 Bergen, Norway. 42 : Fisheries Res Agcy, Natl Res Inst Fisheries Sci, Kanazawa Ku, Yokohama, Kanagawa 2368648, Japan. 43 : Inst Invest Marinas CSIC, Vigo 36208, Pontevedra, Spain. 44 : Montana State Univ, Dept Ecol, Bozeman, MT 59717 USA. 45 : Leibniz Inst Balt Sea Res Warnemunde, D-18119 Rostock, Germany. 46 : Max Planck Inst Biogeochem, D-07745 Jena, Germany. 47 : Japan Meteorol Agcy, Global Environm & Marine Dept, Marine Div, Chiyoda Ku, Tokyo 1008122, Japan. 48 : CNRS, Meteofrance, Ctr Natl Rech Meteorol Grp Etud Atmosphere Metero, F-31100 Toulouse, France. 49 : GEOMAR Helmholtz Ctr Ocean Res Kiel, D-24105 Kiel, Germany. 50 : Univ Bern, Climate & Environm Phys, Bern, Switzerland. 51 : Univ Bern, Oeschger Ctr Climate Change Res, Bern, Switzerland. 52 : Univ London Imperial Coll Sci Technol & Med, Dept Life Sci, Ascot SL5 7PY, Berks, England. 53 : Columbia Univ, Lamont Doherty Earth Observ, Palisades, NY 10964 USA. 54 : Antarctic Climate & Ecosyst Cooperat Res Ctr, Hobart, Tas, Australia. 55 : Wageningen Univ, Dept Meteorol & Air Qual, NL-6700 AA Wageningen, Netherlands. 56 : Wageningen Univ, ICOS Carbon Portal, NL-6700 AA Wageningen, Netherlands. 57 : Vrije Univ Amsterdam, Fac Earth & Life Sci, Amsterdam, Netherlands. 58 : Royal Netherlands Inst Sea Res, NL-1797 SZ T Horntje, Texel, Netherlands. 59 : Univ New Hampshire, Ocean Proc Anal Lab, Durham, NH 03824 USA. 60 : Met Off Hadley Ctr, Exeter EX1 3PB, Devon, England. 61 : Univ Maryland, Dept Atmospher & Ocean Sci, College Pk, MD 20742 USA. |
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| Source | Earth System Science Data (1866-3508) (Copernicus Gesellschaft Mbh), 2015 , Vol. 7 , N. 2 , P. 349-396 | ||||||||
| DOI | 10.5194/essd-7-349-2015 | ||||||||
| WOS© Times Cited | 555 | ||||||||
| Abstract | Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and a methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics, and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates as well as consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations. CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry (E-FF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land-use change (E-LUC), mainly deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover-change data, fire activity associated with deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (G(ATM)) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The mean ocean CO2 sink (S-OCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in S-OCEAN is evaluated with data products based on surveys of ocean CO2 measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (S-LAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of independent dynamic global vegetation models forced by observed climate, CO2, and land-cover change (some including nitrogen-carbon interactions). We compare the mean land and ocean fluxes and their variability to estimates from three atmospheric inverse methods for three broad latitude bands. All uncertainties are reported as +/- 1 sigma, reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. For the last decade available (20052014), E-FF was 9.0 +/- 0.5 GtC yr(-1) E-LUC was 0.9 +/- 0.5 GtC yr(-1), GATM was 4.4 +/- 0.1 GtC yr(-1), S-OCEAN was 2.6 +/- 0.5 GtC yr(-1), and S LAND was 3.0 +/- 0.8 GtC yr(-1). For the year 2014 alone, E FF grew to 9.8 +/- 0.5 GtC yr(-1), 0.6% above 2013, continuing the growth trend in these emissions, albeit at a slower rate compared to the average growth of 2.2% yr(-1) that took place during 2005-2014. Also, for 2014, E-LUC was 1.1 +/- 0.5 GtC yr(-1), G(ATM) was 3.9 +/- 0.2 GtC yr(-1), S-OCEAN was 2.9 +/- 0.5 GtC yr(-1), and S-LAND was 4.1 +/- 0.9 GtC yr(-1). G(ATM) was lower in 2014 compared to the past decade (2005-2014), reflecting a larger S-LAND for that year. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 397.15 +/- 0.10 ppm averaged over 2014. For 2015, preliminary data indicate that the growth in E-FF will be near or slightly below zero, with a projection of 0.6 [ range of 1.6 to C 0.5] %, based on national emissions projections for China and the USA, and projections of gross domestic product corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the global economy for the rest of the world. From this projection of E-FF and assumed constant E LUC for 2015, cumulative emissions of CO2 will reach about 555 +/- 55 GtC (2035 +/- 205 GtCO(2)) for 1870-2015, about 75% from E FF and 25% from E LUC. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new carbon budget compared with previous publications of this data set (Le Quere et al., 2015, 2014, 2013). All observations presented here can be downloaded from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (doi: 10.3334/CDIAC/GCP_2015). | ||||||||
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