FN Archimer Export Format
PT J
TI Assessing causal links in fish stock–recruitment relationships
BT 
AF PIERRE, Maud
   ROUYER, Tristan
   BONHOMMEAU, Sylvain
   FROMENTIN, Jean-Marc
AS 1:1;2:2;3:3;4:2;
FF 1:;2:PDG-RBE-MARBEC-LHM;3:PDG-RBE-DOI;4:PDG-RBE-MARBEC;
C1 Irstea, UR EABX, 50 Ave Verdun, F-33612 Cestas, France.
   Ifremer Stn Sete, UMR MARBEC, Ave Jean Monnet,CS 30171, F-34203 Sete, France.
   IFREMER, Delegat Ocean Indien, Rue Jean Bertho,BP 6097822, Le Port, La Reunion, France.
C2 IRSTEA, FRANCE
   IFREMER, FRANCE
   IFREMER, FRANCE
SI SETE
   LA REUNION
SE PDG-RBE-MARBEC-LHM
   PDG-RBE-DOI
   PDG-RBE-MARBEC
UM MARBEC
IN WOS Ifremer jusqu'en 2018
   copubli-france
   copubli-p187
IF 3.367
TC 15
UR https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00408/51930/52555.pdf
   https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00408/51930/52556.pdf
   https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00408/51930/52557.pdf
   https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00408/51930/52558.pdf
   https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00408/51930/52559.pdf
LA English
DT Article
DE ;causality;forecasting models;marine
AB Understanding whether recruitment fluctuations in fish stock arise from stochastic forcing (e.g. environmental variations) rather than deterministic forces (e.g. intrinsic dynamics) is a long standing question with important applied consequences for fisheries ecology. In particular, the relationship between recruitment, spawning stock biomass and environmental factors is still poorly understood, even though this aspect is crucial for fisheries management. Fisheries data are often short, but arise from complex dynamical systems with a high degree of stochastic forcing, which are difficult to capture through classic modelling approaches. In the present study, recent statistical approaches based on the approximation of the attractors of dynamical systems are applied on a large dataset of time series to assess (i) the directionality of potential causal relationships between recruitment and spawning stock biomass and potential influence of sea-surface temperature on recruitment and (ii) their performance to forecast recruitment. Our study shows that (i) whereas spawning stock biomass and sea surface temperature influence the recruitment to a lesser extent, recruitment causes also parental stock size and (ii) that non-linear forecasting methods performed well for the short-term predictions of recruitment time series. Our results underline that the complex and stochastic nature of the processes characterizing recruitment are unlikely to be captured by classical stock–recruitment relationships, but that non-linear forecasting methods provide interesting perspectives in that respect. 
PY 2018
PD MAY
SO Ices Journal Of Marine Science
SN 1054-3139
PU Oxford Univ Press
VL 75
IS 3
UT 000434070900001
BP 903
EP 911
DI 10.1093/icesjms/fsx202
ID 51930
ER

EF