FN Archimer Export Format
PT J
TI Modeling reproductive traits of an invasive bivalve species under contrasting climate scenarios from 1960 to 2100
BT 
AF GOURAULT, Melaine
   PETTON, Sebastien
   THOMAS, Yoann
   PECQUERIE, Laure
   MARQUES, Goncalo M.
   CASSOU, Christophe
   FLEURY, Elodie
   PAULET, Yves-Marie
   POUVREAU, Stephane
AS 1:6;2:1;3:2;4:2;5:3;6:4;7:5;8:6;9:1;
FF 1:;2:PDG-RBE-PFOM-LPI;3:;4:;5:;6:;7:PDG-RBE-PFOM-LPI;8:;9:PDG-RBE-PFOM-LPI;
C1 IFREMER, Lab Sci Environm Marin LEMAR, 11 Presquile Vivier, F-29840 Argenton En Landunvez, France.
   IFREMER, Lab Sci Environm Marin LEMAR, UBO, CNRS,IRD, Plouzane, France.
   Univ Lisbon, MARETEC, Inst Super Tecn, P-1049001 Lisbon, Portugal.
   CERFACS, F-31057 Toulouse 01, France.
   IFREMER, Lab Sci Environm Marin LEMAR, F-29280 Plouzane, France.
C2 IFREMER, FRANCE
   IRD, FRANCE
   UNIV LISBON, PORTUGAL
   CERFACS, FRANCE
   IFREMER, FRANCE
   UBO, FRANCE
SI ARGENTON
   BREST
SE PDG-RBE-PFOM-LPI
UM LEMAR
IN WOS Ifremer UMR
   WOS Cotutelle UMR
   copubli-france
   copubli-p187
   copubli-europe
   copubli-univ-france
IF 1.725
TC 16
UR https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00440/55188/56794.pdf
LA English
DT Article
DE ;DEB model;IPCC scenarios;Reproductive traits;Crassostrea gigas;Bay of Brest
AB Identifying the drivers that control the reproductive success of a population is vital to forecasting the consequences of climate change in terms of distribution shift and population dynamics. In the present study, we aimed to improve our understanding of the environmental conditions that allowed the colonization of the Pacific oyster, Crassostrea gigas, in the Bay of Brest since its introduction in the 1960s. We also aimed to evaluate the potential consequences of future climate change on its reproductive success and further expansion. Three reproductive traits were defined to study the success of the reproduction: the spawning occurrence, synchronicity among individuals and individual fecundity. We simulated these traits by applying an individual-based modeling approach using a Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) model. First, the model was calibrated for C. gigas in the Bay of Brest using a 6-year monitoring dataset (2009–2014). Second, we reconstructed past temperature conditions since 1960 in order to run the model backwards (hindcasting analysis) and identified the emergence of conditions that favored increasing reproductive success. Third, we explored the regional consequences of two contrasting IPCC climate scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5) on the reproductive success of this species in the bay for the 2100 horizon (forecasting analysis). In both analyses, since phytoplankton concentration variations were, at that point, unknown in the past and unpredicted in the future, we made an initial assumption that our six years of observed phytoplankton concentrations were informative enough to represent “past and future possibilities” of phytoplankton dynamics in the Bay of Brest. Therefore, temperature is the variable that we modified under each forecasting and hindcasting runs. The hindcasting simulations showed that the spawning events increased after 1995, which agrees with the observations made on C. gigas colonization. The forecasting simulations showed that under the warmer scenario (RCP8.5), reproductive success would be enhanced through two complementary mechanisms: more regular spawning each year and potentially precocious spawning resulting in a larval phase synchronized with the most favorable summer period. Our results evidenced that the spawning dates and synchronicity between individuals mainly relied on phytoplankton seasonal dynamics, and not on temperature as expected. Future research focused on phytoplankton dynamics under different climate change scenarios would greatly improve our ability to anticipate the reproductive success and population dynamics of this species and other similar invertebrates. 
PY 2019
PD JAN
SO Journal Of Sea Research
SN 1385-1101
PU Elsevier Science Bv
VL 143
UT 000453497600013
BP 128
EP 139
DI 10.1016/j.seares.2018.05.005
ID 55188
ER

EF