FN Archimer Export Format
PT J
TI Oysters as sentinels of climate variability and climate change in coastal ecosystems
BT 
AF THOMAS, Yoann
   CASSOU, Christophe
   GERNEZ, Pierre
   POUVREAU, Stephane
AS 1:1;2:2;3:1;4:3;
FF 1:;2:;3:;4:PDG-RBE-PFOM-LPI;
C1 Univ Nantes, Mer Mol Sante EA 2160, 2 Rue Houssiniere, F-44322 Nantes 3, France.
   Univ Toulouse, Cerfacs, CNRS, CECI, F-31057 Toulouse, France.
   UMR 6539 Ifremer UBO IRD CNRS, Ifremer, Lab Sci Environm Marin LEMAR, Site Argenton,11 Presquile Vivier, F-29840 Argenton En Landunvez, France.
C2 UNIV NANTES, FRANCE
   UNIV TOULOUSE, FRANCE
   IFREMER, FRANCE
SI ARGENTON
SE PDG-RBE-PFOM-LPI
UM LEMAR
IN WOS Ifremer jusqu'en 2018
   DOAJ
   copubli-france
   copubli-univ-france
IF 6.192
TC 20
UR https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00461/57255/59281.pdf
LA English
DT Article
DE ;North Atlantic;weather regime;oyster;monitoring network;mortality risk assessment;climate models;RCP scenarios
AB Beyond key ecological services, marine resources are crucial for human food security and socio-economical sustainability. Among them, shellfish aquaculture and fishing are of primary importance but become more vulnerable under anthropogenic pressure, as evidenced by reported mass mortality events linked to global changes such as ocean warming and acidification, chemical contamination, and diseases. Understanding climate-related risks is a vital objective for conservation strategies, ecosystems management and human health. We provide here a comprehensive study of the historical mortality of adult oysters related to observed climate variability along the French Atlantic coast from 1986 to 2015, and we built on this knowledge to develop hindcast and forecast assessments of the oyster mortality risk from 1900 to 2100. We show that mortality events usually occur several months after winters dominated by the occurrence of positive North Atlantic oscillation (NAO+) atmospheric regimes of circulation. We explain the lagged response by the multiseasonal long-lasting imprint of wintertime NAO+ on biological and environmental factors, which partly structure oyster mortality etiology. Very high wintertime seawater temperature anomalies at the interannual timescale, which were mostly attributable to internal climate variability through NAO+ and which led to pronounced mortality over the observed period, are then treated as 'analogs' in a large ensemble of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emission scenarios and models in order to anticipate future risks. Without any adaptive process, we provide evidence that actual exceptional mortality is likely to become the norm by ~2035, even if global warming is limited to +2 °C relative to pre-industrial levels. 
PY 2018
PD OCT
SO Environmental Research Letters
SN 1748-9326
PU Iop Publishing Ltd
VL 13
IS 10
UT 000446846700001
DI 10.1088/1748-9326/aae254
ID 57255
ER

EF