FN Archimer Export Format
PT J
TI Impact of surface temperature biases on climate change projections of the South Pacific Convergence Zone
BT 
AF Dutheil, Cyril
   Bador, M.
   Lengaigne, M.
   Lefèvre, J.
   Jourdain, N. C.
   Vialard, J.
   Jullien, Swen
   Peltier, A.
   Menkes, C.
AS 1:1;2:2;3:3;4:1;5:4;6:3;7:5;8:6;9:1;
FF 1:;2:;3:;4:;5:;6:;7:PDG-ODE-LOPS-SIAM;8:;9:;
C1 IRD (Institut de Recherche pour le Développement)- Sorbonne Universités (UPMC, Université Paris 06)-CNRSMNHN- IPSL, LOCEAN Laboratory, IRD Nouméa BP A5, 98848 Nouméa, New Caledonia, France
   Climate Change Research Centre and ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, School of BEES, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia
   LOCEAN-IPSL, Sorbonne Universités, UPMC, Université Paris 06, CNRS-IRD-MNHN, Paris, France
   University of Grenoble Alpes/CNRS/IRD/G-INP, IGE, Grenoble, France
   Ifremer, University of Brest, CNRS, IRD, Laboratoire d’Océanographie Physique et Spatiale (LOPS), IUEM, Plouzané, France
   Météo France, Nouméa, Nouvelle Calédonie, France
C2 IRD, FRANCE
   UNIV NEW SOUTH WALES, AUSTRALIA
   UNIV PARIS 06, FRANCE
   UNIV GRENOBLE ALPES, FRANCE
   IFREMER, FRANCE
   METEO FRANCE, FRANCE
SI BREST
SE PDG-ODE-LOPS-SIAM
UM LOPS
IN WOS Ifremer UMR
   copubli-france
   copubli-p187
   copubli-univ-france
   copubli-int-hors-europe
IF 4.486
TC 19
UR https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00484/59603/62636.pdf
LA English
DT Article
DE ;Regional climate models;South Pacific Convergence Zone;Precipitation;Sea Surface Temperature
AB The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) is poorly represented in global coupled simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), with trademark biases such as the tendency to form a “double Intertropical convergence zone” and an equatorial cold tongue that extends too far westward. Such biases limit our confidence in projections of the future climate change for this region. In this study, we use a downscaling strategy based on a regional atmospheric general circulation model that accurately captures the SPCZ present-day climatology and interannual variability. More specifically, we investigate the sensitivity of the projected rainfall response to either just correcting present-day CMIP5 Sea Surface Temperature (SST) biases or correcting projected SST changes using an emergent constraint approach. While the equatorial western Pacific projected rainfall increase is robust in our experiments and CMIP5, correcting the projected CMIP5 SST changes yields a considerably larger reduction (~ 25%) than in CMIP5 simulations (~ + 3%) in the southwestern Pacific. Indeed, correcting the projected CMIP5 warming pattern yields stronger projected SST gradients, and more humidity convergence reduction under the SPCZ. Finally, our bias-corrected set of experiments yields an increase in equatorial rainfall and SPCZ variability in the future, but does not support the future increase in the frequency of zonal SPCZ events simulated by CMIP5 models. This study hence suggests that atmospheric downscaling studies should not only correct CMIP5 present-day SST biases but also projected SST changes to improve the reliability of their projections. Additional simulations with different physical parameterizations yield robust results. 
PY 2019
PD SEP
SO Climate Dynamics
SN 0930-7575
PU Springer Nature
VL 53
IS 5-6
UT 000483626900042
BP 3197
EP 3219
DI 10.1007/s00382-019-04692-6
ID 59603
ER

EF