A participatory scenario method to explore the future of marine social-ecological systems

Type Article
Date 2019-05
Language English
Author(s) Planque Benjamin1, Mullon Christian2, Arneberg Per1, Eide Arne3, Fromentin Jean-MarcORCID4, Heymans Johanna Jacomina5, 6, Hoel Alf Håkon1, Niiranen Susa7, Ottersen Geir8, Sandø Anne Britt8, 9, Sommerkorn Martin10, Thébaud OlivierORCID11, Thorvik Thorbjørn12
Affiliation(s) 1 : Institute of Marine Research; Tromsø, Norway
2 : Institut de Recherche pour le Développement; UMR Marbec (IRD, Ifremer, Université Montpellier, CNRS); Sète ,France
3 : Norwegian college of Fisheries Science; The Arctic University of Norway; Tromsø ,Norway
4 : Ifremer; UMR Marbec (IRD, Ifremer, Université Montpellier, CNRS); Sète Cedex ,France
5 : European Marine Board; Oostende ,Belgium
6 : SAMS; Scottish Marine Institute; Oban ,UK
7 : Stockholm Resilience Centre; Stockholm University; Stockholm ,Sweden
8 : Institute of Marine Research; Bergen ,Norway
9 : Bjerknes Centre; Institute of Marine Research; Bergen ,Norway
10 : World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF) Arctic Programme; Oslo ,Norway
11 : Ifremer; Univ Brest; CNRS; UMR 6308; AMURE; Unité d'Economie Maritime; IUEM; Plouzane, France
12 : Directorate of Fisheries; Bergen, Norway
Source Fish And Fisheries (1467-2960) (Wiley), 2019-05 , Vol. 20 , N. 3 , P. 434-451
DOI 10.1111/faf.12356
WOS© Times Cited 12
Keyword(s) Barents Sea, future studies, multiple perspectives, participatory fisheries management, storylines, uncertainty

Anticipating future changes in marine social‐ecological systems (MSES) several decades into the future is essential in the context of accelerating global change. This is challenging in situations where actors do not share common understandings, practices, or visions about the future. We introduce a dedicated scenario method for the development of MSES scenarios in a participatory context. The objective is to allow different actors to jointly develop scenarios which contain their multiple visions of the future. The method starts from four perspectives: “fisheries management,” “ecosystem,” “ocean climate,” and “global context and governance” for which current status and recent trends are summarized. Contrasted scenarios about possible futures are elaborated for each of the four single perspectives before being integrated into multiple‐perspective scenarios. Selected scenarios are then developed into storylines. Focusing on individual perspectives until near the end allows actors with diverse cultures, interests and horizons to confront their own notions of the future. We illustrate the method with the exploration of the futures of the Barents Sea MSES by 2050. We emphasize the following lessons learned: first, many actors are not familiar with scenario building and attention must be paid to explaining the purpose, methodology, and benefits of scenarios exercises. Second, although the Barents Sea MSES is relatively well understood, uncertainties about its future are significant. Third, it is important to focus on unlikely events. Fourth, all perspectives should be treated equally. Fifth, as MSES are continuously changing, we can only be prepared for future changes if we collectively keep preparing.

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Planque Benjamin, Mullon Christian, Arneberg Per, Eide Arne, Fromentin Jean-Marc, Heymans Johanna Jacomina, Hoel Alf Håkon, Niiranen Susa, Ottersen Geir, Sandø Anne Britt, Sommerkorn Martin, Thébaud Olivier, Thorvik Thorbjørn (2019). A participatory scenario method to explore the future of marine social-ecological systems. Fish And Fisheries, 20(3), 434-451. Publisher's official version : https://doi.org/10.1111/faf.12356 , Open Access version : https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00485/59621/