FN Archimer Export Format
PT J
TI Surface predictor of overturning circulation and heat content change in the subpolar North Atlantic
BT 
AF Desbruyères, Damien
   Mercier, Herle
   Maze, Guillaume
   Daniault, Nathalie
AS 1:1;2:3;3:1;4:2;
FF 1:PDG-ODE-LOPS-OH;2:;3:PDG-ODE-LOPS-OH;4:;
C1 Ifremer, University of Brest, CNRS, IRD, Laboratoire d'Océanographie Physique et Spatiale, IUEM, Ifremer centre de Bretagne, Plouzané, 29280, France
   University of Brest, CNRS, Ifremer, IRD, Laboratoire d'Océanographie Physique et Spatiale, IUEM, Ifremer centre de Bretagne, Plouzané, 29280, France
C2 IFREMER, FRANCE
   UBO, FRANCE
   CNRS, FRANCE
SI BREST
SE PDG-ODE-LOPS-OH
UM LOPS
IN WOS Ifremer UMR
   WOS Cotutelle UMR
   DOAJ
   copubli-france
   copubli-univ-france
IF 2.864
TC 47
UR https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00503/61443/65162.pdf
   https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00503/61443/65163.pdf
   https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00503/61443/65164.pdf
   https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00503/61443/65165.pdf
LA English
DT Article
CR OVIDE
AB The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) impacts ocean and atmosphere temperatures on a wide range of temporal and spatial scales. Here we use observational datasets to validate model-based inferences on the usefulness of thermodynamics theory in reconstructing AMOC variability at low frequency, and further build on this reconstruction to provide prediction of the near-future (2019–2022) North Atlantic state. An easily observed surface quantity – the rate of warm to cold transformation of water masses at high latitudes – is found to lead the observed AMOC at 45∘ N by 5–6 years and to drive its 1993–2010 decline and its ongoing recovery, with suggestive prediction of extreme intensities for the early 2020s. We further demonstrate that AMOC variability drove a bi-decadal warming-to-cooling reversal in the subpolar North Atlantic before triggering a recent return to warming conditions that should prevail at least until 2021. Overall, this mechanistic approach of AMOC variability and its impact on ocean temperature brings new key aspects for understanding and predicting climatic conditions in the North Atlantic and beyond. 
PY 2019
PD JUL
SO Ocean Science
SN 1812-0784
PU Copernicus GmbH
VL 15
IS 3
UT 000472538300001
BP 809
EP 817
DI 10.5194/os-15-809-2019
ID 61443
ER

EF