Modéliser la réponse des espèces au changement climatique dans les iles subantarctiques : étude de cas chez les oursins du Plateau des Kerguelen

Modelling species response to climate change in sub-Antarctic islands: echinoids as a case study for the Kerguelen Plateau

Type Proceedings paper
Date 2019
Language French, English
Other localization http://heardisland.antarctica.gov.au/research/kerguelen-plateau-symposium/the-kerguelen-plateau-marine-ecosystems-and-fisheries/
Author(s) Saucède Thomas1, Guillaumot Charlène1, 2, Michel LoicORCID3, 4, Fabri-Ruiz Salomé1, 2, Bazin Alexis1, Cabessut Marie1, Garcia-Berro Aurora1, Mateos Amélie1, Mathieu Olivier1, De Ridder Chantal2, Dubois Philippe2, Danis Bruno2, David Bruno1, Diaz Angie5, Lepoint Gilles3, Motreuil Sébastien1, Poulin Elie6, Féral Jean-Pierre7
Affiliation(s) 1 : Biogéosciences, UMR 6282 CNRS, Université Bourgogne Franche-Comté, 6 bd Gabriel, F-21000 Dijon, France
2 : Laboratoire de Biologie marine CP160/15, Université Libre de Bruxelles, 50 av. Roosevelt, B1050 Bruxelles, Belgium
3 : Laboratory of Oceanology, Freshwater and Oceanic Sciences Unit of reSearch (FOCUS), University of Liège, B6C, Allée du 6 Août 15, Quartier Agora, Sart-Tilman, B4000 Liège, Belgium
4 : Ifremer, Centre de Bretagne, REM/EEP, Laboratoire Environnement Profond, F-29280 Plouzané, France
5 : Departamento de Zoología, Universidad de Concepción, Barrio Universitario s/n, Concepción, Chile
6 : Instituto de Ecología y Biodiversidad (IEB), Departamento de Ciencias Ecológicas, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad de Chile, Las Palmeras # 3425, Ñuñoa, Santiago, Chile
7 : Aix Marseille Université/CNRS/IRD/UAPV, IMBE-Institut Méditerranéen de Biologie et d’Ecologie marine et continentale, UMR 7263, Station Marine d’Endoume, Chemin de la Batterie des Lions, 13007 Marseille, France
Meeting Second Kerguelen Plateau Symposium on Marine Ecosystems and Fisheries. November 2017, Hobart, Tasmanie
Source Welsford, D., J. Dell and G. Duhamel (Eds). 2019 The Kerguelen Plateau: marine ecosystem and fisheries. Proceedings of the Second Symposium. Australian Antarctic Division, Kingston, Tasmania, Australia. ISBN: 978-1-876934-30-9. pp.95-116
Keyword(s) Fisheries interactions, sperm whale, Patagonian toothfish, Kerguelen, depredation
Abstract

In the Kerguelen Islands, the multiple effects of climate change are expected to impact coastal marine habitats. Species distribution models (SDM) can represent a convenient tool to predict the biogeographic response of species to climate change but biotic interactions are not considered in these models. Nevertheless, new species interactions can emerge in communities exposed to environmental changes and the structure of biotic interactions is directly related to the potential resilience of ecosystems. Trophic interaction studies can help predict species vulnerability to environmental changes using carbon (δ13C) and nitrogen (δ15N) stable isotope ratios to generate trophic models. Using new available data inputs, we generated robust SDM and trophic interaction models to assess the potential response and sensitivity of three echinoid species to future worst-case scenarios of environmental change in the Kerguelen Plateau region. The two modelling approaches provide contrasting insights into the potential responses of each species to future environmental changes with both approaches identifying Abatus cordatus to be particularly vulnerable due to its narrow ecological niche and endemism to near-shore areas. Coupling insights gained from trophic niche ecology with species distribution modelling represents a promising approach that can improve our understanding and ability to predict the potential responses of species to future habitat changes.

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Saucède Thomas, Guillaumot Charlène, Michel Loic, Fabri-Ruiz Salomé, Bazin Alexis, Cabessut Marie, Garcia-Berro Aurora, Mateos Amélie, Mathieu Olivier, De Ridder Chantal, Dubois Philippe, Danis Bruno, David Bruno, Diaz Angie, Lepoint Gilles, Motreuil Sébastien, Poulin Elie, Féral Jean-Pierre (2019). Modéliser la réponse des espèces au changement climatique dans les iles subantarctiques : étude de cas chez les oursins du Plateau des Kerguelen / Modelling species response to climate change in sub-Antarctic islands: echinoids as a case study for the Kerguelen Plateau. Welsford, D., J. Dell and G. Duhamel (Eds). 2019 The Kerguelen Plateau: marine ecosystem and fisheries. Proceedings of the Second Symposium. Australian Antarctic Division, Kingston, Tasmania, Australia. ISBN: 978-1-876934-30-9. pp.95-116. https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00592/70389/