FN Archimer Export Format PT J TI Applicability of Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) models across steep environmental gradients BT AF MONACO, Cristian MCQUAID, Christopher D. AS 1:1,2,3;2:1; FF 1:;2:; C1 Rhodes Univ, Dept Zool & Entomol, Grahamstown, South Africa. Univ Adelaide, Sch Biol Sci, Southern Seas Ecol Labs, Adelaide, SA 5005, Australia. Univ Adelaide, Environm Inst, Adelaide, SA 5005, Australia. C2 UNIV RHODES, SOUTH AFRICA UNIV ADELAIDE, AUSTRALIA UNIV ADELAIDE, AUSTRALIA IN DOAJ IF 4.011 TC 22 UR https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00605/71690/70130.pdf https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00605/71690/70131.pdf LA English DT Article AB Robust ecological forecasting requires accurate predictions of physiological responses to environmental drivers. Energy budget models facilitate this by mechanistically linking biology to abiotic drivers, but are usually ground-truthed under relatively stable physical conditions, omitting temporal/spatial environmental variability. Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) theory is a powerful framework capable of linking individual fitness to environmental drivers and we tested its ability to accommodate variability by examining model predictions across the rocky shore, a steep ecotone characterized by wide fluctuations in temperature and food availability. We parameterized DEB models for co-existing mid/high-shore (Mytilus galloprovincialis) and mid/low-shore (Perna perna) mussels on the south coast of South Africa. First, we assumed permanently submerged conditions, and then incorporated metabolic depression under low tide conditions, using detailed data of tidal cycles, body temperature and variability in food over 12 months at three sites. Models provided good estimates of shell length for both species across the shore, but predictions of gonadosomatic index were consistently lower than observed. Model disagreement could reflect the effects of details of biology and/or difficulties in capturing environmental variability, emphasising the need to incorporate both. Our approach provides guidelines for incorporating environmental variability and long-term change into mechanistic models to improve ecological predictions. PY 2018 PD NOV SO Scientific Reports SN 2045-2322 PU Nature Publishing Group VL 8 UT 000449274000017 DI 10.1038/s41598-018-34786-w ID 71690 ER EF