FN Archimer Export Format PT J TI Low fuel cost and rising fish price threaten coral reef wilderness BT AF Januchowski‐Hartley, Fraser A. Vigliola, Laurent Maire, Eva Kulbicki, Michel Mouillot, David AS 1:1,2,3;2:2;3:4,5;4:6;5:4,7; FF 1:;2:;3:;4:;5:; C1 UMR 9190 MARBECIRD‐CNRS‐UM‐IFREMER, Institut de recherche pour le développement (IRD) Montpellier Cedex 5 ,France UMR 9220 ENTROPIE Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD), Centré IRD de Nouméa Nouméa, New Caledonia Department of Biosciences, College of Science Swansea University Abertawe ,UK UMR 9190 MARBECIRD‐CNRS‐UM‐IFREMER, Université de Montpellier Montpellier Cedex 5 ,France Lancaster Environment Centre Lancaster University Lancaster, UK UMR 9920 ENTROPIE, Laboratoire Excellence LABEX Corail Institut de recherche pour le développement Perpignan ,France Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies James Cook University Townsville Queensland, Australia C2 IRD, FRANCE IRD, FRANCE UNV SWANSEA, UK UNIV MONTPELLIER, FRANCE UNIV LANCASTER, UK IRD, FRANCE UNIV JAMES COOK, AUSTRALIA UM MARBEC ENTROPIE IN WOS Cotutelle UMR DOAJ copubli-france copubli-europe copubli-univ-france copubli-int-hors-europe IF 4.694 TC 12 UR https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00607/71887/70585.pdf https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00607/71887/70586.pdf https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00607/71887/70587.pdf LA English DT Article CR APEX PRISTINE 3 BO Alis DE ;coral reef conservation;fisheries management;reef accessibility;small-scale fisheries;South Pacific AB Wilderness areas offer unparalleled ecosystem conditions. However, growing human populations and consumption are among factors that drive encroachment on these areas. Here, we explore the threat of small‐scale fisheries to wilderness reefs by developing a framework and modeling fluctuations in fishery range with fuel costs and fish prices. We modeled biomass of four fishery groups across the New Caledonian archipelago, and used fish and fuel prices from 2005 to 2020 to estimate the extent of exploited reefs across three fishing scenarios.  From 2012 to 2018, maximum profitable range increased from 15 to over 30 hr from the capital city, expanding to reefs previously uneconomic to fish, including a UNESCO heritage site. By 2020, over half of New Caledonian (∼17% global) wilderness reefs will become profitable to fish. Our results demonstrate that remoteness from humans should not be considered protection for wilderness coral reefs in the context of rising fish prices. PY 2020 PD MAY SO Conservation Letters SN 1755-263X PU Wiley VL 13 IS 3 UT 000511221000001 DI 10.1111/conl.12706 ID 71887 ER EF