TY - JOUR T1 - Climate‐induced changes in the suitable habitat of cold‐water corals and commercially important deep‐sea fishes in the North Atlantic A1 - Morato,Telmo A1 - González‐irusta,José‐manuel A1 - Dominguez‐carrió,Carlos A1 - Wei,Chih‐lin A1 - Davies,Andrew A1 - Sweetman,Andrew K. A1 - Taranto,Gerald H. A1 - Beazley,Lindsay A1 - García‐alegre,Ana A1 - Grehan,Anthony A1 - Laffargue,Pascal A1 - Murillo,Francisco Javier A1 - Sacau,Mar A1 - Vaz,Sandrine A1 - Kenchington,Ellen A1 - Arnaud-Haond,Sophie A1 - Callery,Oisín A1 - Chimienti,Giovanni A1 - Cordes,Erik A1 - Egilsdottir,Hronn A1 - Freiwald,André A1 - Gasbarro,Ryan A1 - Gutiérrez‐zárate,Cristina A1 - Gianni,Matthew A1 - Gilkinson,Kent A1 - Wareham Hayes,Vonda E. A1 - Hebbeln,Dierk A1 - Hedges,Kevin A1 - Henry,Lea‐anne A1 - Johnson,David A1 - Koen‐alonso,Mariano A1 - Lirette,Cam A1 - Mastrototaro,Francesco A1 - Menot,Lenaick A1 - Molodtsova,Tina A1 - Durán Muñoz,Pablo A1 - Orejas,Covadonga A1 - Pennino,Maria Grazia A1 - Puerta,Patricia A1 - Ragnarsson,Stefán Á. A1 - Ramiro‐sánchez,Berta A1 - Rice,Jake A1 - Rivera,Jesús A1 - Roberts,J. Murray A1 - Ross,Steve W. A1 - Rueda,José L. A1 - Sampaio,Íris A1 - Snelgrove,Paul A1 - Stirling,David A1 - Treble,Margaret A. A1 - Urra,Javier A1 - Vad,Johanne A1 - Oevelen,Dick A1 - Watling,Les A1 - Walkusz,Wojciech A1 - Wienberg,Claudia A1 - Woillez,Mathieu A1 - Levin,Lisa A. A1 - Carreiro‐silva,Marina AD - Okeanos Research Centre Departamento de Oceanografia e Pesca Universidade dos Açores Horta ,Portugal AD - IMAR Instituto do Mar Departamento de Oceanografia e Pesca Universidade dos Açores Horta ,Portugal AD - Institute of Oceanography National Taiwan University Taipei ,Taiwan AD - Department of Biological Sciences University of Rhode Island Kingston RI, USA AD - Marine Benthic Ecology, Biogeochemistry and In situ Technology Research Group The Lyell Centre for Earth and Marine Science and Technology Heriot‐Watt University Edinburgh, UK AD - Fisheries and Oceans Canada Bedford Institute of Oceanography Dartmouth NS ,Canada AD - Instituto Español de Oceanografía (IEO) Centro Oceanográfico de Vigo Vigo, Pontevedra ,Spain AD - Earth and Ocean Sciences NUI Galway Galway, Ireland AD - IFREMER, Centre Atlantique Nantes ,France AD - MARBEC University of Montpellier IFREMER CNRS IRD Sète ,France AD - Department of Biology University of Bari Aldo Moro Bari, Italy AD - CoNISMa Rome, Italy AD - Department of Biology Temple University Philadelphia PA ,USA AD - Marine and Freshwater Research Institute Reykjavík ,Iceland AD - Marine Research Department Senckenberg am Meer Wilhelmshaven ,Germany AD - Gianni Consultancy Amsterdam ,The Netherlands AD - Northwest Atlantic Fisheries Centre Fisheries and Ocean Canada St. John’s NL, Canada AD - MARUM ‐ Center for Marine Environmental Sciences University of Bremen Bremen, Germany AD - Fisheries and Oceans Canada Winnipeg MB ,Canada AD - Changing Oceans Group School of GeoSciences Grant Institute University of Edinburgh Edinburgh ,UK AD - Seascape Consultants Ltd Romsey ,UK AD - IFREMER Centre de Bretagne Plouzané ,France AD - P.P. Shirshov Institute of Oceanology RAS Moscow ,Russia AD - Instituto Español de Oceanografía Centro Oceanográfico de Baleares Palma ,Spain AD - Fisheries and Ocean Canada Ottawa ON, Canada AD - Instituto Español de Oceanografía Madrid ,Spain AD - Center for Marine Science University of North Carolina at Wilmington Wilmington NC, USA AD - Instituto Español de Oceanografía Centro Oceanográfico de Málaga Málaga, Spain AD - Ocean Sciences Centre Memorial University St. John’s NL ,Canada AD - Marine Laboratory Marine Scotland Science Aberdeen ,UK AD - Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research (NIOZ) Utrecht University Yerseke ,The Netherlands AD - Department of Biology University of Hawai‘i at Mānoa Honolulu HI, USA AD - Center for Marine Biodiversity and Conservation and Integrative Oceanography Division Scripps Institution of Oceanography UC San Diego La Jolla CA ,USA UR - https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00610/72211/ DO - 10.1111/gcb.14996 KW - climate change KW - cold-water corals KW - deep-sea KW - fisheries KW - fishes KW - habitat suitability modelling KW - octocorals KW - scleractinians KW - species distribution models KW - vulnerable marine ecosystems N2 - The deep sea plays a critical role in global climate regulation through uptake and storage of heat and carbon dioxide. However, this regulating service causes warming, acidification and deoxygenation of deep waters, leading to decreased food availability at the seafloor. These changes and their projections are likely to affect productivity, biodiversity and distributions of deep‐sea fauna, thereby compromising key ecosystem services. Understanding how climate change can lead to shifts in deep‐sea species distributions is critically important in developing management measures. We used environmental niche modelling along with the best available species occurrence data and environmental parameters to model habitat suitability for key cold‐water coral and commercially important deep‐sea fish species under present‐day (1951–2000) environmental conditions and to project changes under severe, high emissions future (2081–2100) climate projections (RCP8.5 scenario) for the North Atlantic Ocean. Our models projected a decrease of 28%–100% in suitable habitat for cold‐water corals and a shift in suitable habitat for deep‐sea fishes of 2.0°–9.9° towards higher latitudes. The largest reductions in suitable habitat were projected for the scleractinian coral Lophelia pertusa and the octocoral Paragorgia arborea, with declines of at least 79% and 99% respectively. We projected the expansion of suitable habitat by 2100 only for the fishes Helicolenus dactylopterus and Sebastes mentella (20%–30%), mostly through northern latitudinal range expansion. Our results projected limited climate refugia locations in the North Atlantic by 2100 for scleractinian corals (30%–42% of present‐day suitable habitat), even smaller refugia locations for the octocorals Acanella arbuscula and Acanthogorgia armata (6%–14%), and almost no refugia for P. arborea. Our results emphasize the need to understand how anticipated climate change will affect the distribution of deep‐sea species including commercially important fishes and foundation species, and highlight the importance of identifying and preserving climate refugia for a range of area‐based planning and management tools. Y1 - 2020/04 PB - Wiley JF - Global Change Biology SN - 1354-1013 VL - 26 IS - 4 SP - 2181 EP - 2202 ID - 72211 ER -