FN Archimer Export Format PT J TI Climate‐induced changes in the suitable habitat of cold‐water corals and commercially important deep‐sea fishes in the North Atlantic BT AF Morato, Telmo González‐Irusta, José‐Manuel Dominguez‐Carrió, Carlos Wei, Chih‐Lin Davies, Andrew Sweetman, Andrew K. Taranto, Gerald H. Beazley, Lindsay García‐Alegre, Ana Grehan, Anthony Laffargue, Pascal Murillo, Francisco Javier Sacau, Mar Vaz, Sandrine Kenchington, Ellen ARNAUD-HAOND, Sophie Callery, Oisín Chimienti, Giovanni Cordes, Erik Egilsdottir, Hronn Freiwald, André Gasbarro, Ryan Gutiérrez‐Zárate, Cristina Gianni, Matthew Gilkinson, Kent Wareham Hayes, Vonda E. Hebbeln, Dierk Hedges, Kevin Henry, Lea‐Anne Johnson, David Koen‐Alonso, Mariano Lirette, Cam Mastrototaro, Francesco Menot, Lenaick Molodtsova, Tina Durán Muñoz, Pablo Orejas, Covadonga Pennino, Maria Grazia Puerta, Patricia Ragnarsson, Stefán Á. Ramiro‐Sánchez, Berta Rice, Jake Rivera, Jesús Roberts, J. Murray Ross, Steve W. Rueda, José L. Sampaio, Íris Snelgrove, Paul Stirling, David Treble, Margaret A. Urra, Javier Vad, Johanne Oevelen, Dick Watling, Les Walkusz, Wojciech Wienberg, Claudia Woillez, Mathieu Levin, Lisa A. Carreiro‐Silva, Marina AS 1:1,2;2:1,2;3:1,2;4:3;5:4;6:5;7:1,2;8:6;9:7;10:8;11:9;12:6;13:7;14:10;15:6;16:10;17:8;18:11,12;19:13;20:14;21:15;22:13;23:1,2;24:16;25:17;26:17;27:18;28:19;29:20;30:21;31:17;32:6;33:11,12;34:22;35:23;36:7;37:24;38:7;39:24;40:14;41:20;42:25;43:26;44:20;45:27;46:28;47:2,15;48:29;49:30;50:19;51:28;52:20;53:31;54:32;55:19;56:18;57:22;58:33;59:1,2; FF 1:;2:;3:;4:;5:;6:;7:;8:;9:;10:;11:PDG-RBE-EMH;12:;13:;14:PDG-RBE-MARBEC-LHM;15:;16:PDG-RBE-MARBEC-LHM;17:;18:;19:;20:;21:;22:;23:;24:;25:;26:;27:;28:;29:;30:;31:;32:;33:;34:PDG-REM-EEP-LEP;35:;36:;37:;38:;39:;40:;41:;42:;43:;44:;45:;46:;47:;48:;49:;50:;51:;52:;53:;54:;55:;56:;57:PDG-RBE-STH-LBH;58:;59:; C1 Okeanos Research Centre Departamento de Oceanografia e Pesca Universidade dos Açores Horta ,Portugal IMAR Instituto do Mar Departamento de Oceanografia e Pesca Universidade dos Açores Horta ,Portugal Institute of Oceanography National Taiwan University Taipei ,Taiwan Department of Biological Sciences University of Rhode Island Kingston RI, USA Marine Benthic Ecology, Biogeochemistry and In situ Technology Research Group The Lyell Centre for Earth and Marine Science and Technology Heriot‐Watt University Edinburgh, UK Fisheries and Oceans Canada Bedford Institute of Oceanography Dartmouth NS ,Canada Instituto Español de Oceanografía (IEO) Centro Oceanográfico de Vigo Vigo, Pontevedra ,Spain Earth and Ocean Sciences NUI Galway Galway, Ireland IFREMER, Centre Atlantique Nantes ,France MARBEC University of Montpellier IFREMER CNRS IRD Sète ,France Department of Biology University of Bari Aldo Moro Bari, Italy CoNISMa Rome, Italy Department of Biology Temple University Philadelphia PA ,USA Marine and Freshwater Research Institute Reykjavík ,Iceland Marine Research Department Senckenberg am Meer Wilhelmshaven ,Germany Gianni Consultancy Amsterdam ,The Netherlands Northwest Atlantic Fisheries Centre Fisheries and Ocean Canada St. John’s NL, Canada MARUM ‐ Center for Marine Environmental Sciences University of Bremen Bremen, Germany Fisheries and Oceans Canada Winnipeg MB ,Canada Changing Oceans Group School of GeoSciences Grant Institute University of Edinburgh Edinburgh ,UK Seascape Consultants Ltd Romsey ,UK IFREMER Centre de Bretagne Plouzané ,France P.P. Shirshov Institute of Oceanology RAS Moscow ,Russia Instituto Español de Oceanografía Centro Oceanográfico de Baleares Palma ,Spain Fisheries and Ocean Canada Ottawa ON, Canada Instituto Español de Oceanografía Madrid ,Spain Center for Marine Science University of North Carolina at Wilmington Wilmington NC, USA Instituto Español de Oceanografía Centro Oceanográfico de Málaga Málaga, Spain Ocean Sciences Centre Memorial University St. John’s NL ,Canada Marine Laboratory Marine Scotland Science Aberdeen ,UK Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research (NIOZ) Utrecht University Yerseke ,The Netherlands Department of Biology University of Hawai‘i at Mānoa Honolulu HI, USA Center for Marine Biodiversity and Conservation and Integrative Oceanography Division Scripps Institution of Oceanography UC San Diego La Jolla CA ,USA C2 UNIV AZORES, PORTUGAL UNIV AZORES, PORTUGAL UNIV NATL TAIWAN NTU, TAIWAN UNIV RHODE ISLAND, USA UNIV HERIOT WATT, UK MPO BEDFORD INST OCEANOG, CANADA IEO, SPAIN UNIV NATL IRELAND, IRELAND IFREMER, FRANCE IFREMER, FRANCE UNIV BARI ALDO MORO, ITALY CONISMA, ITALY UNIV PHILADELPHIA, USA MFRI, ICELAND SENCKENBERG MEER, GERMANY GIANNI CONSULTANCY AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS MPO, CANADA UNIV BREMEN MARUM, GERMANY MPO, CANADA UNIV EDINBURGH, UK SEASCAPE CONSULTANTS LTD AMPFIELD, UK IFREMER, FRANCE PP SHIRSHOV OCEANOL INST, RUSSIA IEO, SPAIN MPO, CANADA IEO, SPAIN UNIV N CAROLINA, USA IEO, SPAIN UNIV MEM NEWFOUNDLAND, CANADA MARINE SCOTLAND SCI (NRL), UK INST SEA RESEARCH (NIOZ), NETHERLANDS UNIV HAWAII, USA UNIV CALIF SAN DIEGO, USA SI NANTES SETE BREST SE PDG-RBE-EMH PDG-RBE-MARBEC-LHM PDG-REM-EEP-LEP PDG-RBE-STH-LBH UM MARBEC IN WOS Ifremer UPR WOS Ifremer UMR copubli-europe copubli-int-hors-europe IF 10.863 TC 95 UR https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00610/72211/71007.pdf https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00610/72211/71008.pdf LA English DT Article CR EVHOE EVALUATION HALIEUTIQUE OUEST DE L'EUROPE DE ;climate change;cold-water corals;deep-sea;fisheries;fishes;habitat suitability modelling;octocorals;scleractinians;species distribution models;vulnerable marine ecosystems AB The deep sea plays a critical role in global climate regulation through uptake and storage of heat and carbon dioxide. However, this regulating service causes warming, acidification and deoxygenation of deep waters, leading to decreased food availability at the seafloor. These changes and their projections are likely to affect productivity, biodiversity and distributions of deep‐sea fauna, thereby compromising key ecosystem services. Understanding how climate change can lead to shifts in deep‐sea species distributions is critically important in developing management measures. We used environmental niche modelling along with the best available species occurrence data and environmental parameters to model habitat suitability for key cold‐water coral and commercially important deep‐sea fish species under present‐day (1951–2000) environmental conditions and to project changes under severe, high emissions future (2081–2100) climate projections (RCP8.5 scenario) for the North Atlantic Ocean. Our models projected a decrease of 28%–100% in suitable habitat for cold‐water corals and a shift in suitable habitat for deep‐sea fishes of 2.0°–9.9° towards higher latitudes. The largest reductions in suitable habitat were projected for the scleractinian coral Lophelia pertusa and the octocoral Paragorgia arborea, with declines of at least 79% and 99% respectively. We projected the expansion of suitable habitat by 2100 only for the fishes Helicolenus dactylopterus and Sebastes mentella (20%–30%), mostly through northern latitudinal range expansion. Our results projected limited climate refugia locations in the North Atlantic by 2100 for scleractinian corals (30%–42% of present‐day suitable habitat), even smaller refugia locations for the octocorals Acanella arbuscula and Acanthogorgia armata (6%–14%), and almost no refugia for P. arborea. Our results emphasize the need to understand how anticipated climate change will affect the distribution of deep‐sea species including commercially important fishes and foundation species, and highlight the importance of identifying and preserving climate refugia for a range of area‐based planning and management tools. PY 2020 PD APR SO Global Change Biology SN 1354-1013 PU Wiley VL 26 IS 4 UT 000514391400001 BP 2181 EP 2202 DI 10.1111/gcb.14996 ID 72211 ER EF