FN Archimer Export Format
PT J
TI Twenty-first-century climate change impacts on marine animal biomass and ecosystem structure across ocean basins
BT 
AF BRYNDUM-BUCHHOLZ, Andrea
   TITTENSOR, Derek P.
   BLANCHARD, Julia L.
   CHEUNG, William W. L.
   COLL, Marta
   GALBRAITH, Eric D.
   JENNINGS, Simon
   MAURY, Olivier
   LOTZE, Heike K.
AS 1:1;2:1,2;3:3;4:4;5:5,6;6:7,8;7:9,10,11;8:12,13;9:1;
FF 1:;2:;3:;4:;5:;6:;7:;8:;9:;
C1 Dalhousie Univ, Dept Biol, Halifax, NS, Canada.
   United Nations Environm Programme World Conserva, Cambridge, England.
   Univ Tasmania, Ctr Marine Socioecol, Inst Marine & Antarctic Studies, Hobart, Tas, Australia.
   Univ British Columbia, Inst Oceans & Fisheries, Nippon Fdn UBC Nereus Program & Changing Ocean Re, Vancouver, BC, Canada.
   CSIC, ICM, Barcelona, Spain.
   Ecopath Int Initiat, Barcelona, Spain.
   ICREA, Barcelona, Spain.
   Univ Autonoma Barcelona, Inst Ciencia & Tecnol Ambientals ICTA, Dept Math, Barcelona, Spain.
   CEFAS, Lowestoft Lab, Lowestoft, Suffolk, England.
   Univ East Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Norwich, Norfolk, England.
   Int Council Explorat Sea, Copenhagen V, Denmark.
   IRD, UMR 248 MARBEC, Paris, France.
   Univ Cape Town, Int Lab, ICEMASA, Rondebosch, South Africa.
C2 UNIV DALHOUSIE, CANADA
   UNEP WCMC, UK
   UNIV TASMANIA, AUSTRALIA
   MPO, CANADA
   CSIC, SPAIN
   ECOPATH INT INITIAT, SPAIN
   ICREA, SPAIN
   UNIV AUTONOMA BARCELONA, SPAIN
   CEFAS, UK
   UNIV EAST ANGLIA, UK
   ICES, DENMARK
   IRD, FRANCE
   UNIV CAPE TOWN, SOUTH AFRICA
UM MARBEC
IN WOS Cotutelle UMR
   copubli-europe
   copubli-int-hors-europe
   copubli-sud
IF 8.555
TC 111
UR https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00611/72296/87071.pdf
LA English
DT Article
DE ;climate change;ensemble modeling;future projection;marine animal biomass;marine ecosystem models;model intercomparison;ocean basins;uncertainty
AB Climate change effects on marine ecosystems include impacts on primary production, ocean temperature, species distributions, and abundance at local to global scales. These changes will significantly alter marine ecosystem structure and function with associated socio-economic impacts on ecosystem services, marine fisheries, and fishery-dependent societies. Yet how these changes may play out among ocean basins over the 21st century remains unclear, with most projections coming from single ecosystem models that do not adequately capture the range of model uncertainty. We address this by using six marine ecosystem models within the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (Fish-MIP) to analyze responses of marine animal biomass in all major ocean basins to contrasting climate change scenarios. Under a high emissions scenario (RCP8.5), total marine animal biomass declined by an ensemble mean of 15%-30% (+/- 12%-17%) in the North and South Atlantic and Pacific, and the Indian Ocean by 2100, whereas polar ocean basins experienced a 20%-80% (+/- 35%-200%) increase. Uncertainty and model disagreement were greatest in the Arctic and smallest in the South Pacific Ocean. Projected changes were reduced under a low (RCP2.6) emissions scenario. Under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, biomass projections were highly correlated with changes in net primary production and negatively correlated with projected sea surface temperature increases across all ocean basins except the polar oceans. Ecosystem structure was projected to shift as animal biomass concentrated in different size-classes across ocean basins and emissions scenarios. We highlight that climate change mitigation measures could moderate the impacts on marine animal biomass by reducing biomass declines in the Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian Ocean basins. The range of individual model projections emphasizes the importance of using an ensemble approach in assessing uncertainty of future change.
PY 2019
PD FEB
SO Global Change Biology
SN 1354-1013
PU Wiley
VL 25
IS 2
UT 000456028900008
BP 459
EP 472
DI 10.1111/gcb.14512
ID 72296
ER

EF