FN Archimer Export Format
PT J
TI Differing marine animal biomass shifts under 21st century climate change between Canada’s three oceans
BT 
AF Bryndum-Buchholz, Andrea
   Prentice, Faelan
   Tittensor, Derek P.
   Blanchard, Julia L.
   Cheung, William W.L.
   Christensen, Villy
   Galbraith, Eric D.
   Maury, Olivier
   Lotze, Heike K.
   Favaro, Brett
AS 1:1;2:1;3:1;4:2;5:3;6:4;7:5,6;8:7,8;9:1;10:;
FF 1:;2:;3:;4:;5:;6:;7:;8:;9:;10:;
C1 Department of Biology, Dalhousie University, 1355 Oxford Street, Halifax, NS B3H 4R2, Canada
   Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies and Center for Marine Socioecology, University of Tasmania, 20 Castray Esplanade, Battery Point TAS 7004, Private Bag 129, Hobart, Tasmania 7001, Australia
   Nippon Foundation-UBC Nereus Program and Changing Ocean Research Unit, Institute for te Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada
   Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada
   Institució Catalana de Recerca i Estudis Avançats (ICREA), 08010 Barcelona, Spain
   Department of Mathematics, Institut de Ciència i Tecnologia Ambientals (ICTA), Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona, 08193 Barcelona, Spain
   Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD), MARBEC (IRD, University of Montpellier, IFREMER, CNRS), 34203 Sète, France
   Department of Oceanography, Marine Research Institute, University of Cape Town, 7701 Rondebosch, South Africa
C2 UNIV DALHOUSIE, CANADA
   UNIV TASMANIA, AUSTRALIA
   UNIV BRITISH COLUMBIA, CANADA
   UNIV BRITISH COLUMBIA, CANADA
   ICREA, SPAIN
   UNIV AUTONOMA BARCELONA, SPAIN
   IRD, FRANCE
   UNIV CAPE TOWN, SOUTH AFRICA
UM MARBEC
IN WOS Cotutelle UMR
   DOAJ
   copubli-europe
   copubli-int-hors-europe
   copubli-sud
IF 2.535
TC 19
UR https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00613/72464/71425.pdf
   https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00613/72464/71426.pdf
LA English
DT Article
DE ;climate change;ensemble modeling;marine ecosystem models;Canada Exclusive Economic Zone;Fish-MIP;projection uncertainty
AB Under climate change, species composition and abundances in high-latitude waters are expected to substantially reconfigure with consequences for trophic relationships and ecosystem services. Outcomes are challenging to project at national scales, despite their importance for management decisions. Using an ensemble of six global marine ecosystem models we analyzed marine ecosystem responses to climate change from 1971 to 2099 in Canada’s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) under four standardized emissions scenarios. By 2099, under business-as-usual emissions (RCP8.5) projected marine animal biomass declined by an average of −7.7% (±29.5%) within the Canadian EEZ, dominated by declines in the Pacific (−24% ± 24.5%) and Atlantic (−25.5% ± 9.5%) areas; these were partially compensated by increases in the Canadian Arctic (+26.2% ± 38.4%). Lower emissions scenarios projected successively smaller biomass changes, highlighting the benefits of stronger mitigation targets. Individual model projections were most consistent in the Atlantic and Pacific, but highly variable in the Arctic due to model uncertainties in polar regions. Different trajectories of future marine biomass changes will require regional-specific responses in conservation and management strategies, such as adaptive planning of marine protected areas and species-specific management plans, to enhance resilience and rebuilding of Canada’s marine ecosystems and commercial fish stocks. 
PY 2020
PD MAR
SO Facets
SN 2371-1671
PU Canadian Science Publishing
VL 5
IS 1
UT 000518822800001
BP 105
EP 122
DI 10.1139/facets-2019-0035
ID 72464
ER

EF