FN Archimer Export Format
PT J
TI Impact of projected sea surface temperature biases on tropical cyclones projections in the South Pacific
BT 
AF Dutheil, C.
   Lengaigne, Matthieu
   Bador, M.
   Vialard, J.
   Lefèvre, J.
   Jourdain, N. C.
   Jullien, Swen
   Peltier, A.
   Sultan, B.
   Menkès, C.
AS 1:1,2;2:2;3:3;4:2;5:1;6:4;7:5;8:6;9:7;10:1;
FF 1:;2:;3:;4:;5:;6:;7:PDG-ODE-LOPS-SIAM;8:;9:;10:;
C1 ENTROPIE (UMR 9220), IRD, Univ. de la Réunion, CNRS, Nouméa, Nouvelle-Calédonie
   LOCEAN-IPSL, Sorbonne Universités, UPMC, Université Paris 06, CNRS-IRD-MNHN, Paris, France
   ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes and Climate Change Research Centre, School of BEES, University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
   Univ. Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, IRD, G-INP, IGE, Grenoble, France
   Ifremer, Univ. Brest, CNRS, IRD, Laboratoire d’Océanographie Physique et Spatiale (LOPS), IUEM, Plouzané, France
   Météo France, Nouméa, New Caledonia
   ESPACE-DEV, Univ Montpellier, IRD, Univ Guyane, Univ Reunion, Univ Antilles, Univ Avignon, Avignon, France
C2 IRD, FRANCE
   IRD, FRANCE
   UNIV NEW SOUTH WALES, AUSTRALIA
   UNIV GRENOBLE ALPES, FRANCE
   IFREMER, FRANCE
   CNRM (METEO FRANCE), FRANCE
   IRD, FRANCE
SI BREST
SE PDG-ODE-LOPS-SIAM
UM LOPS
   ENTROPIE
IN WOS Ifremer UMR
   WOS Cotutelle UMR
   DOAJ
   copubli-france
   copubli-p187
   copubli-univ-france
   copubli-int-hors-europe
IF 4.379
TC 18
UR https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00614/72648/71651.pdf
   https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00614/72648/71652.pdf
LA English
DT Article
AB Climate model projections generally indicate fewer but more intense tropical cyclones (TCs) in response to increasing anthropogenic emissions. However these simulations suffer from long-standing biases in their Sea Surface Temperature (SST). While most studies investigating future changes in TC activity using high-resolution atmospheric models correct for the present-day SST bias, they do not consider the reliability of the projected SST changes from global climate models. The present study illustrates that future South Pacific TC activity changes are strongly sensitive to correcting the projected SST changes using an emergent constraint method. This additional correction indeed leads to a strong reduction of the cyclogenesis (−55%) over the South Pacific basin, while no statistically significant change arises in the uncorrected simulations. Cyclogenesis indices suggest that this strong reduction in the corrected experiment is caused by stronger vertical wind shear in response to a South Pacific Convergence Zone equatorward shift. We thus find that uncertainty in the projected SST patterns could strongly hamper the reliability of South Pacific TC projections. The strong sensitivity found in the current study will need to be investigated with other models, observational constraint methods and in other TC basins in order to assess the reliability of regional TC projections. 
PY 2020
PD MAR
SO Scientific Reports
SN 2045-2322
PU Springer Science and Business Media LLC
VL 10
IS 1
UT 000562126100012
DI 10.1038/s41598-020-61570-6
ID 72648
ER

EF