FN Archimer Export Format PT J TI Additive effects of climate change on connectivity between marine protected areas and larval supply to fished areas BT AF ANDRELLO, Marco MOUILLOT, David SOMOT, Samuel THUILLER, Wilfried MANEL, Stephanie AS 1:1,2,3;2:4,5;3:6;4:2,3;5:1,7; FF 1:;2:;3:;4:;5:; C1 Aix Marseille Univ, IRD, LPED UMR 151, Marseille, France. Univ Grenoble Alpes, LECA, F-38000 Grenoble, France. CNRS, LECA, F-38000 Grenoble, France. Univ Montpellier 2, UMR Ecol Syst Marins Cotiers 5119, F-34095 Montpellier 5, France. James Cook Univ, ARC Ctr Excellence Coral Reef Studies, Townsville, Qld 4811, Australia. Meteo France, CNRM, GAME, F-31057 Toulouse, France. Ctr Cooperat Int Rech Agron Dev, UMR AMAP, Montpellier, France. C2 UNIV AIX MARSEILLE, FRANCE UNIV GRENOBLE ALPES, FRANCE CNRS, FRANCE UNIV MONTPELLIER, FRANCE UNIV JAMES COOK, AUSTRALIA CNRM (METEO FRANCE), FRANCE CIRAD, FRANCE UM MARBEC IN DOAJ IF 4.566 TC 69 UR https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00627/73867/73398.pdf https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00627/73867/73399.pdf https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00627/73867/73400.pdf https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00627/73867/73401.tif https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00627/73867/73402.tif https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00627/73867/73403.tiff https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00627/73867/73404.pdf LA English DT Article DE ;Biophysical model;conservation planning;Epinephelus marginatus;larval dispersal;larval growth rate;reproductive timing AB AimTo study the combined effects of climate change on connectivity between marine protected areas (MPAs) and larval supply to the continental shelf. LocationThe Mediterranean Sea, where sea surface temperatures are expected to strongly increase by the end of the 21st century, represents an archetypal situation with a dense MPA network but resource overexploitation outside. MethodsUsing an individual-based mechanistic model of larval transport, forced with an emission-driven regional climate change scenario for the Mediterranean Sea, we explored the combined effects of changes in hydrodynamics, adult reproductive timing and larval dispersal on the connectivity among MPAs and their ability to seed fished areas with larvae. ResultsWe show that, over the period 1970-2099, larval dispersal distances would decrease by 10%, the continental shelf area seeded with larvae would decrease by 3% and the larval retention fraction would increase by 5%, resulting in higher concentration of larvae in smaller areas of the continental shelf. However, connectance within the MPA network would increase by 5% as more northern MPAs would become suitable for reproduction with increasing temperatures. We also show that the effects of changes in adult reproductive timing and larval dispersal on connectivity patterns are additive. Main conclusionsClimate change will influence connectivity and the effectiveness of MPA networks, and should receive more attention in future conservation planning and large-scale population dynamics. PY 2015 PD FEB SO Diversity And Distributions SN 1366-9516 PU Wiley VL 21 IS 2 UT 000347462900002 BP 139 EP 150 DI 10.1111/ddi.12250 ID 73867 ER EF