FN Archimer Export Format
PT J
TI Climate change in the Bay of Biscay: Changes in spatial biodiversity patterns could be driven by the arrivals of southern species
BT 
AF Le Marchand, Marie
   Hattab, Tarek
   Niquil, N
   Albouy, Camille
   LE LOCH, Francois
   Lasram, FBR
AS 1:1,2;2:3;3:4;4:5;5:2;6:6;
FF 1:;2:PDG-RBE-MARBEC-LHM;3:;4:PDG-RBE-EMH;5:;6:;
C1 France Energies Marines, 525 avenue Alexis de Rochon, 29280 Plouzané, France
   IRD, Université Brest, CNRS, IFREMER, LEMAR, IUEM, 29280 Plouzané, France
   MARBEC, Université Montpellier, CNRS, IFREMER, IRD Sète, avenue Jean Monnet, 34200 Sète, France
   UMR BOREA, Team Ecofunc, Université de Caen, CNRS, MNHN, IRD, SU, UACS 14032, 14000 Caen, France
   IFREMER, unité Ecologie et Modèles pour l’Halieutique, 44200 Nantes, France
   Université Littoral Côte d’Opale, Université Lille, CNRS, UMR 8187, LOG, Laboratoire d’Océanologie et de Géosciences, 62930 Wimereux, France
C2 FRANCE ENERGIES MARINES, FRANCE
   IRD, FRANCE
   IFREMER, FRANCE
   UNIV CAEN, FRANCE
   IFREMER, FRANCE
   UNIV LITTORAL COTE D’OPALE, FRANCE
SI SETE
   NANTES
SE PDG-RBE-MARBEC-LHM
   PDG-RBE-EMH
UM LEMAR
   MARBEC
IN WOS Ifremer UPR
   WOS Ifremer UMR
   WOS Cotutelle UMR
   copubli-france
   copubli-p187
   copubli-univ-france
IF 2.824
TC 12
UR https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00643/75518/76408.pdf
LA English
DT Article
DE ;Climate change;Ecological niche model;Habitat model;Hierarchical filters;Species turnover;Species distribution
AB Under climate change, future species assemblages will be driven by the movements and poleward shift of local species and the arrival of more thermophilic species from lower latitudes. To evaluate the impacts of climate change on marine communities in the Bay of Biscay, we used the hierarchical filters modelling approach. Models integrated 3 vertical depth layers and considered 2 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathway, RCP2.6 and RCP8.5) and 2 periods (2041-2050 and 2091-2100) to simulate potential future species distributions. Results predicted potentially suitable future ranges for 163 species as well as future arrivals of non-indigenous southern species. We aggregated these results to map changes in species assemblages. Results revealed that coastal areas would undergo the highest species loss among the Bay of Biscay species, depending on their vertical habitat (benthic, demersal, benthopelagic or pelagic). Benthic and demersal species were projected to experience a westward shift, which would induce a deepening of those species. In contrast, pelagic species were projected to shift northward. The potential ecological niche for half of the studied species, mostly benthic and demersal, was projected to decrease under climate change. In addition, a high rate of southern species arrivals is expected (+28%). Assessment of community composition showed high species replacement within the 0-50 m isobath, driven by the replacement of native species by southern ones. This could lead to a major reorganization of trophic networks and have socio-economic impacts. 
PY 2020
PD AUG
SO Marine Ecology Progress Series
SN 0171-8630
PU Inter-Research Science Center
VL 647
UT 000621231500002
BP 17
EP 31
DI 10.3354/meps13401
ID 75518
ER

EF