TY - JOUR T1 - Climate Change-Induced Emergence of Novel Biogeochemical Provinces A1 - Reygondeau,Gabriel A1 - Cheung,William W. L. A1 - Wabnitz,Colette C. C. A1 - Lam,Vicky W. Y. A1 - Frölicher,Thomas A1 - Maury,Olivier AD - Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada AD - Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Max Planck – Yale Center for Biodiversity Movement and Global Change, Yale University, New Haven, CT, United States AD - Stanford Center for Ocean Solutions, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, United States AD - Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland AD - Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland AD - Marine Biodiversity, Exploitation and Conservation, Institut de Recherche pour le Développement, Ifremer, Université de Montpellier, CNRS, Sète, France UR - https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00654/76611/ DO - 10.3389/fmars.2020.00657 KW - physical oceanography KW - marine biogeography KW - pelagic environment KW - novel ocean climate KW - environmental niche model N2 - The global ocean is commonly partitioned into 4 biomes subdivided into 56 biogeochemical provinces (BGCPs) following the accepted division proposed by Longhurst in 1998. Each province corresponds to a unique regional environment that shapes biodiversity and constrains ecosystem structure and functions. Biogeochemical provinces are dynamic entities that change their spatial extent and position with climate and are expected to be perturbated in the near future by global climate change. Here, we characterize the changes in spatial distribution of BGCPs from 1950 to 2100 using three earth system models under two representative concentration pathways (RCP 2.6 and 8.5). We project a reorganization of the current distribution of BGCPs driven mostly by a poleward shit in their distribution (18.4 km in average per decade). Projection of the future distribution of BGCPs also revealed the emergence of new climate that has no analog with past and current environmental conditions. These novel environmental conditions, here named No-Analog BGCPs State (NABS), will expand from 2040 to 2100 at a rate of 4.3 Mkm2 per decade (1.2% of the global ocean). We subsequently quantified the potential number of marine species and annual volume of fisheries catches that would experience such novel environmental conditions to roughly evaluate the impact of NABS on ecosystem services. Y1 - 2020/10 PB - Frontiers Media SA JF - Frontiers In Marine Science SN - 2296-7745 VL - 7 IS - 657 ID - 76611 ER -