FN Archimer Export Format
PT J
TI Climate Change-Induced Emergence of Novel Biogeochemical Provinces
BT 
AF Reygondeau, Gabriel
   Cheung, William W. L.
   Wabnitz, Colette C. C.
   Lam, Vicky W. Y.
   Frölicher, Thomas
   Maury, Olivier
AS 1:1,2;2:1;3:1,3;4:1;5:4,5;6:6;
FF 1:;2:;3:;4:;5:;6:;
C1 Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada
   Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Max Planck – Yale Center for Biodiversity Movement and Global Change, Yale University, New Haven, CT, United States
   Stanford Center for Ocean Solutions, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, United States
   Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
   Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
   Marine Biodiversity, Exploitation and Conservation, Institut de Recherche pour le Développement, Ifremer, Université de Montpellier, CNRS, Sète, France
C2 UNIV BRITISH COLUMBIA, CANADA
   UNIV YALE, USA
   UNIV STANFORD, USA
   UNIV BERN, SWITZERLAND
   UNIV BERN, SWITZERLAND
   IRD, FRANCE
UM MARBEC
IN WOS Cotutelle UMR
   DOAJ
   copubli-int-hors-europe
IF 5.247
TC 14
UR https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00654/76611/77762.pdf
   https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00654/76611/77763.pdf
LA English
DT Article
DE ;physical oceanography;marine biogeography;pelagic environment;novel ocean climate;environmental niche model
AB The global ocean is commonly partitioned into 4 biomes subdivided into 56 biogeochemical provinces (BGCPs) following the accepted division proposed by Longhurst in 1998. Each province corresponds to a unique regional environment that shapes biodiversity and constrains ecosystem structure and functions. Biogeochemical provinces are dynamic entities that change their spatial extent and position with climate and are expected to be perturbated in the near future by global climate change. Here, we characterize the changes in spatial distribution of BGCPs from 1950 to 2100 using three earth system models under two representative concentration pathways (RCP 2.6 and 8.5). We project a reorganization of the current distribution of BGCPs driven mostly by a poleward shit in their distribution (18.4 km in average per decade). Projection of the future distribution of BGCPs also revealed the emergence of new climate that has no analog with past and current environmental conditions. These novel environmental conditions, here named No-Analog BGCPs State (NABS), will expand from 2040 to 2100 at a rate of 4.3 Mkm2 per decade (1.2% of the global ocean). We subsequently quantified the potential number of marine species and annual volume of fisheries catches that would experience such novel environmental conditions to roughly evaluate the impact of NABS on ecosystem services. 
PY 2020
PD OCT
SO Frontiers In Marine Science
SN 2296-7745
PU Frontiers Media SA
VL 7
IS 657
UT 000579835900001
DI 10.3389/fmars.2020.00657
ID 76611
ER

EF