FN Archimer Export Format PT J TI Coral cover surveys corroborate predictions on reef adaptive potential to thermal stress BT AF Selmoni, Oliver Lecellier, Gaël Vigliola, Laurent Berteaux-Lecellier, Véronique Joost, Stéphane AS 1:1,2;2:2,3;3:2;4:2;5:1; FF 1:;2:;3:;4:;5:; C1 Laboratory of Geographic Information Systems, Ecole Polytechnique Federale de Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland UMR250/9220 ENTROPIE IRD-CNRS-Ifremer-UNC-UR, Labex CORAIL, Nouméa, New Caledonia, France UVSQ, Université de Paris-Saclay, Versailles, France C2 ECOLE POLYTECH FED LAUSANNE, SWITZERLAND IRD, FRANCE UNIV VERSAILLES, FRANCE UM ENTROPIE IN WOS Cotutelle UMR DOAJ copubli-france copubli-univ-france copubli-int-hors-europe IF 4.379 TC 6 UR https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00659/77138/78460.pdf https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00659/77138/78461.pdf LA English DT Article AB As anomalous heat waves are causing the widespread decline of coral reefs worldwide, there is an urgent need to identify coral populations tolerant to thermal stress. Heat stress adaptive potential is the degree of tolerance expected from evolutionary processes and, for a given reef, depends on the arrival of propagules from reefs exposed to recurrent thermal stress. For this reason, assessing spatial patterns of thermal adaptation and reef connectivity is of paramount importance to inform conservation strategies. In this work, we applied a seascape genomics framework to characterize the spatial patterns of thermal adaptation and connectivity for coral reefs of New Caledonia (Southern Pacific). In this approach, remote sensing of seascape conditions was combined with genomic data from three coral species. For every reef of the region, we computed a probability of heat stress adaptation, and two indices forecasting inbound and outbound connectivity. We then compared our indicators to field survey data, and observed that decrease of coral cover after heat stress was lower at reefs predicted with high probability of adaptation and inbound connectivity. Last, we discussed how these indicators can be used to inform local conservation strategies and preserve the adaptive potential of New Caledonian reefs. PY 2020 PD NOV SO Scientific Reports SN 2045-2322 PU Springer Science and Business Media LLC VL 10 IS 1 UT 000595255700073 DI 10.1038/s41598-020-76604-2 ID 77138 ER EF