FN Archimer Export Format PT J TI Spatial epidemiological modelling of infection by Vibrio aestuarianus shows that connectivity and temperature control oyster mortality BT AF Lupo, Coralie Dutta, Bhagat Lal Petton, Sebastien Ezanno, P Tourbiez, Delphine Travers, Marie-Agnes Pernet, Fabrice Bacher, Cedric AS 1:1;2:1;3:2;4:3;5:1;6:1,4;7:2;8:5; FF 1:PDG-RBE-SGMM-LGPMM;2:PDG-RBE-SG2M-LGPMM;3:PDG-RBE-PFOM-LPI;4:;5:PDG-RBE-SGMM-LGPMM;6:PDG-RBE-IHPE;7:PDG-RBE-PFOM-LPI;8:PDG-ODE-DYNECO; C1 Ifremer, SG2M, F-17390 La Tremblade, France Université Brest, Ifremer, CNRS, IRD, LEMAR, 29840 Plouzané, France INRAE, Oniris, BIOEPAR, 44300 Nantes, France Université Montpellier, CNRS, Ifremer, UPVD, IHPE, 34000 Montpellier, France Ifremer, DYNECO, F-29580 Plouzané, France C2 IFREMER, FRANCE IFREMER, FRANCE INRAE, FRANCE IFREMER, FRANCE IFREMER, FRANCE SI LA TREMBLADE ARGENTON MONTPELLIER BREST SE PDG-RBE-SGMM-LGPMM PDG-RBE-SG2M-LGPMM PDG-RBE-PFOM-LPI PDG-RBE-IHPE PDG-ODE-DYNECO UM LEMAR IHPE IN WOS Ifremer UPR WOS Ifremer UMR DOAJ copubli-france copubli-p187 IF 2.188 TC 7 UR https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00662/77459/79114.pdf https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00662/77459/79115.pdf LA English DT Article DE ;Basic reproduction number;Crassostrea gigas;Hydrodynamics;Oyster disease;Sensitivity analysis;Vibrio aestuarianus AB Vibrio aestuarianus infection in oyster populations causes massive mortality, resulting in losses for oyster farmers. Such dynamics result from host-pathogen interactions and contagion through water-borne transmission. To assess the spatiotemporal spread of V. aestuarianus infection and associated oyster mortality at a bay scale, we built a mathematical model informed by experimental infection data at 2 temperatures and spatially dependent marine connectivity of oyster farms. We applied the model to a real system and tested the importance of each factor using a number of modelling scenarios. Results suggest that introducing V. aestuarianus in a fully susceptible adult oyster population in the bay would lead to the mortality of all farmed oysters over 6 to 12 mo, depending on the location in which infection was initiated. The effect of temperature was captured by the basic reproduction number (R0), which was >1 at high seawater temperatures, as opposed to values <1 at low temperatures. At the ecosystem scale, simulations showed the existence of long-distance dispersal of free-living bacteria. The western part of the bay could be reached by bacteria originating from the eastern side, though the spread time was greatly increased. Further developments of the model, including the consideration of the anthropogenic movements of oysters and oyster-specific sensitivity factors, would allow the development of accurate maps of epidemiological risks and help define aquaculture zoning. PY 2020 SO Aquaculture Environment Interactions SN 1869-215X PU Inter-Research Science Center VL 12 UT 000594267300001 BP 511 EP 527 DI 10.3354/aei00379 ID 77459 ER EF