Global Carbon Budget 2019

Type Article
Date 2019-12
Language English
Author(s) Friedlingstein Pierre1, 2, Jones Matthew W.3, O'Sullivan Michael1, Andrew Robbie M.4, Hauck JudithORCID5, Peters Glen P.4, Peters WouterORCID6, 7, Pongratz JuliaORCID8, 9, Sitch Stephen10, Le Quere CorinneORCID3, Bakker Dorothee C. E.3, Canadell Josep G.11, Ciais Philippe12, Jackson Robert B.13, 14, Anthoni Peter15, Barbero Leticia16, 17, Bastos AnaORCID8, Bastrikov Vladislav12, Becker Meike18, 19, Bopp Laurent2, Buitenhuis ErikORCID3, Chandra NaveenORCID20, Chevallier FredericORCID12, Chini Louise P.21, Currie Kim I.22, Feely Richard A.23, Gehlen MarionORCID12, Gilfillan Dennis24, Gkritzalis Thanos25, Goll Daniel S.26, Gruber NicolasORCID27, 28, Gutekunst Soeren29, Harris Ian30, Haverd VanessaORCID11, Houghton Richard A.31, Hurtt George21, Ilyina TatianaORCID9, Jain Atul K.32, Joetzjer Emilie33, Kaplan Jed O.ORCID34, Kato EtsushiORCID35, Goldewijk Kees KleinORCID36, 37, Korsbakken Jan Ivar4, Landschuetzer Peter9, Lauvset Siv K.19, 38, Lefevre Nathalie39, Lenton Andrew40, 41, Lienert Sebastian42, 43, Lombardozzi DanicaORCID44, Marland Gregg24, McGuire Patrick C.45, Melton Joe R.ORCID46, Metzl Nicolas39, Munro David R.47, Nabel Julia E. M. S.9, Nakaoka Shin-Ichiro48, Neill Craig40, Omar Abdirahman M.19, 40, Ono Tsuneo49, Peregon Anna12, 50, Pierrot Denis16, 17, Poulter BenjaminORCID51, Rehder Gregor52, Resplandy LaureORCID53, 54, Robertson Eddy55, Rodenbeck Christian56, Seferian RolandORCID33, Schwinger Joerg19, 36, Smith Naomi6, 57, Tans Pieter P.58, Tian Hanqin59, Tilbrook BronteORCID40, 60, Tubiello Francesco N.61, Van Der Werf Guido R.62, Wiltshire Andrew J.55, Zaehle SonkeORCID56
Affiliation(s) 1 : Univ Exeter, Coll Engn Math & Phys Sci, Exeter EX4 4QF, Devon, England.
2 : UPMC X, Lab Meteorol Dynam, Inst Pierre Simon Laplace, CNRS,Ecole Normale Super,Dept Geosci, 24 Rue Lhomond, F-75005 Paris, France.
3 : Univ East Anglia, Tyndall Ctr Climate Change Res, Sch Environm Sci, Norwich Res Pk, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England.
4 : CICERO Ctr Int Climate Res, N-0349 Oslo, Norway.
5 : Helmholtz Ctr Polar & Marine Res, Alfred Wegener Inst, Postfach 120161, D-27515 Bremerhaven, Germany.
6 : Wageningen Univ, Environm Sci Grp, POB 47, NL-6700 AA Wageningen, Netherlands.
7 : Univ Groningen, Ctr Isotope Res, Groningen, Netherlands.
8 : Ludwig Maximilians Univ Munchen, Luisenstr 37, D-80333 Munich, Germany.
9 : Max Planck Inst Meteorol, Hamburg, Germany.
10 : Univ Exeter, Coll Life & Environm Sci, Exeter EX4 4RJ, Devon, England.
11 : CSIRO Oceans & Atmosphere, GPO Box 1700, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia.
12 : UVSQ, Inst Pierre Simon Laplace, Lab Sci Climat & Environm, CEA,CNRS ,CE Orme Merisiers, F-91191 Gif Sur Yvette, France.
13 : Stanford Univ, Dept Earth Syst Sci, Woods Inst Environm, Stanford, CA 94305 USA.
14 : Stanford Univ, Precourt Inst Energy, Stanford, CA 94305 USA.
15 : Karlsruhe Inst Technol, Inst Meteorol & Climate, Res Atmospher Environm Res, D-82467 Garmisch Partenkirchen, Germany.
16 : Univ Miami, Rosenstiel Sch Marine & Atmospher Sci, Cooperat Inst Marine & Atmospher Studies, 4600 Rickenbacker Causeway, Miami, FL 33149 USA.
17 : NOAA, Atlantic Oceanog & Meteorol Lab, Miami, FL 33149 USA.
18 : Univ Bergen, Inst Geophys, Bergen, Norway.
19 : Bjerknes Ctr Climate Res, Allegaten 70, N-5007 Bergen, Norway.
20 : Japan Agcy Marine Earth Sci & Technol JAMSTEC, Earth Surface Syst Res Ctr ESS, Yokohama, Kanagawa 2360001, Japan.
21 : Univ Maryland, Dept Geog Sci, College Pk, MD 20742 USA.
22 : NIWA UoO Res Ctr Oceanog, POB 56, Dunedin 9054, New Zealand.
23 : NOAA, Pacific Marine Environm Lab, 7600 Sand Point Way NE, Seattle, WA 98115 USA.
24 : Appalachian State Univ, Res Inst Environm Energy & Econ, Boone, NC 28608 USA.
25 : Flanders Marine Inst VLIZ, InnovOceanSite,Wandelaarkaai 7, B-8400 Oostende, Belgium.
26 : Univ Augsburg, Lehrstuhl Phys Geog Schwerpunkt Klimaforsch, Augsburg, Germany.
27 : Swiss Fed Inst Technol, Environm Phys Grp, Inst Biogeochem & Pollutant Dynam, Zurich, Switzerland.
28 : Ctr Climate Syst Modeling, Zurich, Switzerland.
29 : GEOMAR Helmholtz Ctr Ocean Res Kiel, Dusternbrooker Weg 20, D-24105 Kiel, Germany.
30 : Univ East Anglia, NCAS Climate, Climat Res Unit, Sch Environm Sci, Norwich Res Pk, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England.
31 : Woods Hole Res Ctr, Falmouth, MA 02540 USA.
32 : Univ Illinois, Dept Atmospher Sci, Urbana, IL 61821 USA.
33 : Meteo France, Ctr Natl Rech Meteorol, CNRS, Unite Mixte Rech 3589, 42 Ave Gaspard Coriolis, F-31100 Toulouse, France.
34 : Univ Hong Kong, Dept Earth Sci, Pokfulam Rd, Hong Kong, Peoples R China.
35 : Inst Appl Energy, Minato Ku, Tokyo 1050003, Japan.
36 : PBL Netherlands Environm Assessment Agcy, Bezuidenhoutseweg 30,POB 30314, NL-2500 GH The Hague, Netherlands.
37 : Copernicus Inst Sustainable Dev, Dept IMEW, Fac Geosci, Heidelberglaan 2,POB 80115, NL-3508 TC Utrecht, Netherlands.
38 : NORCE Climate, NORCE Norwegian Res Ctr, Jahnebakken 70, N-5008 Bergen, Norway.
39 : Sorbonne Univ, LOCEAN IPSL Lab, CNRS, IRS,MNHN, Paris, France.
40 : CSIRO Oceans & Atmosphere, Hobart, Tas, Australia.
41 : Univ Tasmania, Inst Marine & Antarctic Studies, Hobart, Tas, Australia.
42 : Univ Bern, Climate & Environm Phys, Inst Phys, Bern, Switzerland.
43 : Univ Bern, Oeschger Ctr Climate Change Res, Bern, Switzerland.
44 : Natl Ctr Atmospher Res Climate & Global Dynam, Terr Sci Sect, Boulder, CO 80305 USA.
45 : Univ Reading, Dept Meteorol, Dept Geog & Environm Sci, Natl Ctr Atmospher Sci, Reading, Berks, England.
46 : Environm & Climate Change Canada, Climate Res Div, Victoria, BC, Canada.
47 : Univ Colorado, Cooperat Inst Res Environm Sci, Boulder, CO 80309 USA.
48 : NIES, Ctr Global Environm Res, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 3058506, Japan.
49 : Japan Fisheries Res & Educ Agcy, Kanazawa Ku, 2-12-4 Fukuura, Yokohama, Kanagawa 2368648, Japan.
50 : Russian Acad Sci, Siberian Branch, Inst Soil Sci & Agrochem, Pr Akad Lavrentyeva 8-2, Novosibirsk 630090, Russia.
51 : NASA, Goddard Space Flight Ctr, Biospher Sci Lab, Greenbelt, MD 20771 USA.
52 : Leibniz Inst Balt Sea Res Warnemuende IOW, Seestr 15, D-18119 Rostock, Germany.
53 : Princeton Univ, Dept Geosci, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA.
54 : Princeton Univ, Princeton Environm Inst, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA.
55 : Met Off Hadley Ctr, FitzRoy Rd, Exeter EX1 3PB, Devon, England.
56 : Max Planck Inst Biogeochem, POB 600164,Hans Knoll Str 10, D-07745 Jena, Germany.
57 : Lund Univ, ICOS Carbon Portal, Lund, Sweden.
58 : NOAA, Earth Syst Res Lab, Boulder, CO 80305 USA.
59 : Auburn Univ, Int Ctr Climate & Global Change Res, Sch Forestry & Wildlife Sci, 602 Ducan Dr, Auburn, AL 36849 USA.
60 : Univ Tasmania, Australian Antarctic Partnership Program, Hobart, Tas, Australia.
61 : UN, FAO, Div Stat, Via Terme Caracalla, I-00153 Rome, Italy.
62 : Vrije Univ, Fac Sci, Amsterdam, Netherlands.
Source Earth System Science Data (1866-3508) (Copernicus Gesellschaft Mbh), 2019-12 , Vol. 11 , N. 4 , P. 1783-1838
DOI 10.5194/essd-11-1783-2019
WOS© Times Cited 487
Abstract Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere - the "global carbon budget" - is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO2 emissions (E-FF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land use change (E-LUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land use and land use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its growth rate (G(ATM)) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (S-OCEAN) and terrestrial CO2 sink (S-LAND) are estimated with global process models constrained by observations. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (B-IM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as +/- 1 sigma. For the last decade available (2009-2018), E-FF was 9.5 +/- 0.5 GtC yr 1, E-LUC 1.5 +/- 0.7 GtC yr 1, G(ATM) 4.9 +/- 0.02 GtC yr(-1) (2.3 +/- 0.01 ppm yr(-1)), S-OCEAN 2.5 +/- 0.6 GtC yr(-1), and S-LAND 3.2 +/- 0.6 GtC yr(-1), with a budget imbalance B-IM of 0.4 GtC yr(-1) indicating overestimated emissions and/or underestimated sinks. For the year 2018 alone, the growth in E-FF was about 2.1% and fossil emissions increased to 10.0 +/- 0.5 GtC yr 1, reaching 10 GtC yr(-1) for the first time in history, E-LUC was 1.5 +/- 0.7 GtC yr(-1), for total anthropogenic CO2 emissions of 11.5 +/- 0.9 GtC yr(-1) (42.5 +/- 3.3 GtCO(2)). Also for 2018, G(ATM) was 5.1 +/- 0.2 GtC yr(-1) (2.4 +/- 0.1 ppm yr(-1)), S-OCEAN was 2.6 +/- 0.6 GtC yr(-1), and S-LAND was 3.5 +/- 0.7 GtC yr(-1), with a B-IM of 0.3 GtC. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 407.38 +/- 0.1 ppm averaged over 2018. For 2019, preliminary data for the first 6-10 months indicate a reduced growth in E-FF of +0.6% (range of -0.2% to 1.5 %) based on national emissions projections for China, the USA, the EU, and India and projections of gross domestic product corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy for the rest of the world. Overall, the mean and trend in the five components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period 1959-2018, but discrepancies of up to 1 GtC yr(-1) persist for the representation of semi-decadal variability in CO2 fluxes. A detailed comparison among individual estimates and the introduction of a broad range of observations shows (1) no consensus in the mean and trend in land use change emissions over the last decade, (2) a persistent low agreement between the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO2 flux in the northern extra-tropics, and (3) an apparent underestimation of the CO2 variability by ocean models outside the tropics. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new global carbon budget and the progress in understanding of the global carbon cycle compared with previous publications of this data set (Le Quere et al., 2018a, b, 2016, 2015a, b, 2014, 2013).
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Friedlingstein Pierre, Jones Matthew W., O'Sullivan Michael, Andrew Robbie M., Hauck Judith, Peters Glen P., Peters Wouter, Pongratz Julia, Sitch Stephen, Le Quere Corinne, Bakker Dorothee C. E., Canadell Josep G., Ciais Philippe, Jackson Robert B., Anthoni Peter, Barbero Leticia, Bastos Ana, Bastrikov Vladislav, Becker Meike, Bopp Laurent, Buitenhuis Erik, Chandra Naveen, Chevallier Frederic, Chini Louise P., Currie Kim I., Feely Richard A., Gehlen Marion, Gilfillan Dennis, Gkritzalis Thanos, Goll Daniel S., Gruber Nicolas, Gutekunst Soeren, Harris Ian, Haverd Vanessa, Houghton Richard A., Hurtt George, Ilyina Tatiana, Jain Atul K., Joetzjer Emilie, Kaplan Jed O., Kato Etsushi, Goldewijk Kees Klein, Korsbakken Jan Ivar, Landschuetzer Peter, Lauvset Siv K., Lefevre Nathalie, Lenton Andrew, Lienert Sebastian, Lombardozzi Danica, Marland Gregg, McGuire Patrick C., Melton Joe R., Metzl Nicolas, Munro David R., Nabel Julia E. M. S., Nakaoka Shin-Ichiro, Neill Craig, Omar Abdirahman M., Ono Tsuneo, Peregon Anna, Pierrot Denis, Poulter Benjamin, Rehder Gregor, Resplandy Laure, Robertson Eddy, Rodenbeck Christian, Seferian Roland, Schwinger Joerg, Smith Naomi, Tans Pieter P., Tian Hanqin, Tilbrook Bronte, Tubiello Francesco N., Van Der Werf Guido R., Wiltshire Andrew J., Zaehle Sonke (2019). Global Carbon Budget 2019. Earth System Science Data, 11(4), 1783-1838. Publisher's official version : https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-1783-2019 , Open Access version : https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00676/78799/