FN Archimer Export Format PT J TI Natural and anthropogenic climate variability shape assemblages of range‐extending coral‐reef fishes BT AF MONACO, Cristian Booth, David J Figuera, Will F Gillanders, Bronwyn M. Schoeman, David S. Bradshaw, Corey J.A. Nagelkerken, Ivan AS 1:1,2;2:3;3:4;4:1;5:5,6;6:7;7:1; FF 1:PDG-RBE-RMPF;2:;3:;4:;5:;6:;7:; C1 Southern Seas Ecology Laboratories, School of Biological Sciences and The Environment Institute, The University of Adelaide, South Australia, Australia IFREMER, Institut Louis-Malardé, IRD, Univ Polynésie française, EIO, Taravao Tahiti, Polynésie française, France School of the Life Sciences, University of Technology Sydney, Broadway, Australia School of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Sydney, Camperdown, Australia Global-Change Ecology Research Group, School of Science, Technology and Engineering, University of the Sunshine Coast, Maroochydore, Australia Centre for African Conservation Ecology, Department of Zoology, Nelson Mandela University, Port Elizabeth, Australia Global Ecology, College of Science and Engineering, Flinders University, Adelaide, SA, Australia C2 UNIV ADELAIDE, AUSTRALIA IFREMER, FRANCE UNIV TECH SYDNEY, AUSTRALIA UNIV TECH SYDNEY, AUSTRALIA UNIV SUNSHINE COAST, AUSTRALIA UNIV NELSON MANDELA, AUSTRALIA UNIV FLINDERS, AUSTRALIA SI TAHITI SE PDG-RBE-RMPF UM EIO IN WOS Ifremer UMR copubli-int-hors-europe IF 4.81 TC 6 UR https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00680/79161/81766.pdf LA English DT Article DE ;climate change;coral reefs;ENSO;global warming;marine fishes;range shifts;species distribution;temperate ecosystems;transient community dynamics;vagrants AB Aim Climate change is redistributing species globally, resulting in altered community structures and ecosystem functioning. The current paradigm is that species should track temperature isoclines along latitudinal and depth gradients to remain within their thermal niches. However, the many exceptions to this rule point to complex ecological and environmental processes often overlooked in statistical models predicting species redistributions. We tested the contributions of natural versus anthropogenic climate change to the long‐term spatio‐temporal dynamics of assemblages of range‐shifting tropical fishes at the leading edge of redistribution fronts. Location East coast of Australia. Taxon Tropical coral‐reef fishes. Methods We analysed 16 years (2003–2018) of tropical species occurrences at two temperate locations using traditional diversity metrics (richness, accumulation curves and β‐diversity). We also quantified the role of primary environmental covariates and estimated species associations using joint species distribution models. Results We reveal that tropical species richness has increased in this temperate ecosystem over time. Furthermore, we show that the richness of tropical vagrant species increased with the sea‐surface temperature experienced by both local vagrants and their putative source populations at the southern Great Barrier Reef, which accounted for 23.1% and 22.1% of the explained variance, respectively. We also detected a signal from El Niño‐Southern Oscillation, as species turnover and richness peaked during the strong La Niña event of 2010–2011. Main conclusions While the increases in ocean temperature and strength of the surface ocean current due to anthropogenic climate change are gradually favouring the poleward redistribution of tropical species, natural climatic oscillations can have a strong additive effect by rapidly modifying the pool of incoming species and potentially disrupting local communities. PY 2021 PD MAY SO Journal Of Biogeography SN 0305-0270 PU Wiley / Blackwell VL 48 IS 5 UT 000618878300001 BP 1063 EP 1075 DI 10.1111/jbi.14058 ID 79161 ER EF