The Making of the NEAM Tsunami Hazard Model 2018 (NEAMTHM18)

Type Article
Date 2021-03
Language English
Author(s) Basili RobertoORCID1, Brizuela Beatriz1, Herrero Andre1, Iqbal Sarfraz2, Lorito Stefano1, Maesano Francesco Emanuele1, Murphy ShaneORCID3, Perfetti Paolo2, Romano Fabrizio1, Scala Antonio1, 4, Selva Jacopo2, Taroni Matteo1, Tiberti Mara Monica1, Thio Hong Kie5, Tonini RobertoORCID, Volpe Manuela, Glimsdal Sylfest6, Harbitz Carl Bonnevie6, Lovholt Finn6, Baptista Maria Ana7, Carrilho Fernando8, Matias Luis Manuel9, Omira Rachid9, Babeyko Andrey10, Hoechner Andreas10, 11, Gurbuz Mucahit12, Pekcan OnurORCID12, Yalciner Ahmet12, Canals Miquel13, Lastras Galderic13, Agalos Apostolos14, Papadopoulos Gerassimos15, Triantafyllou Ioanna16, Benchekroun Sabah17, Agrebi Jaouadi Hedi18, Ben Abdallah Samir18, Bouallegue Atef18, Hamdi Hassene18, Oueslati Foued18, Amato Alessandro1, Armigliato Alberto19, Behrens Joern20, Davies Gareth21, Di Bucci Daniela22, Dolce Mauro22, 23, Geist Eric24, Gonzalez Vida Jose Manuel25, Gonzalez Mauricio26, Macias Sanchez Jorge25, Meletti Carlo27, Ozer Sozdinler Ceren28, Pagani Marco29, Parsons Tom24, Polet Jascha30, Power William31, Sorensen Mathilde32, Zaytsev Andrey33
Affiliation(s) 1 : Ist Nazl Geofis & Vulcanol, Rome, Italy.
2 : Ist Nazl Geofis & Vulcanol, Bologna, Italy.
3 : Inst Francais Rech Exploitat Mer, Plouzane, France.
4 : Univ Naples Federico II, Dept Phys Ettore Pancini, Naples, Italy.
5 : AECOM Tech Serv, Los Angeles, CA USA.
6 : Norwegian Geotech Inst, Oslo, Norway.
7 : Inst Politecn Lisboa, Inst Super Engn Lisboa, Lisbon, Portugal.
8 : Inst Portugues Mar & Atmosfera, Lisbon, Portugal.
9 : Univ Lisbon, Fac Ciencias, Inst Dom Luiz, Lisbon, Portugal.
10 : GFZ German Res Ctr Geosci, Potsdam, Germany.
11 : Gempa GmbH, Potsdam, Germany.
12 : Middle East Tech Univ, Dept Civil Engn, Ankara, Turkey.
13 : Univ Barcelona, CRG Marine Geosci, Dept Earth & Ocean Dynam, Fac Earth Sci, Barcelona, Spain.
14 : Natl Observ Athens, Athens, Greece.
15 : Int Soc Prevent & Mitigat Nat Hazards, Athens, Greece.
16 : Natl & Kapodistrian Univ Athens, Dept Geol & Geoenvironm, Athens, Greece.
17 : Univ Mohammed 5, Ecole Normale Super Rabat, Rabat, Morocco.
18 : Natl Inst Meteorol, Tunis, Tunisia.
19 : Univ Bologna, Dipartimento Fis & Astron, Bologna, Italy.
20 : Univ Hamburg, Dept Math, Hamburg, Germany.
21 : Geosci Australia, Symonston, Australia.
22 : Presidenza Consiglio Minist, Dipartimento Protez Civile Rome, Rome, Italy.
23 : Univ Napoli Federico II, Dept Struct Engn & Architecture, Naples, Italy.
24 : US Geol Survey, Moffett Field, CA USA.
25 : Univ Malaga, Dept Anal Matemat Estadist & Invest Operat & Mate, Malaga, Spain.
26 : Univ Cantabria, Environm Hydraul Inst IHCantabria, Santander, Spain.
27 : Ist Nazl Geofis & Vulcanol, Pisa, Italy.
28 : Kagawa Univ, Inst Educ Res & Reg Cooperat Crisis Management Sh, Takamatsu, Kagawa, Japan.
29 : Fdn GEM, Pavia, Italy.
30 : Calif State Polytech Univ Pomona, Dept Geol Sci, Pomona, CA 91768 USA.
31 : GNS Sci, Lower Hutt, New Zealand.
32 : Univ Bergen, Dept Earth Sci, Bergen, Norway.
33 : Russian Acad Sci, Far Eastern Branch, Special Res Bur Automat Marine Res, Yuzhno Sakhalinsk, Russia.
Source Frontiers In Earth Science (2296-6463) (Frontiers Media Sa), 2021-03 , Vol. 8 , P. 616594 (29p.)
DOI 10.3389/feart.2020.616594
WOS© Times Cited 10
Keyword(s) probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment, earthquake-generated tsunami, hazard uncertainty analysis, ensemble modeling, maximum inundation height, NEAM
Abstract

The NEAM Tsunami Hazard Model 2018 (NEAMTHM18) is a probabilistic hazard model for tsunamis generated by earthquakes. It covers the coastlines of the North-eastern Atlantic, the Mediterranean, and connected seas (NEAM). NEAMTHM18 was designed as a threephase project. The first two phases were dedicated to the model development and hazard calculations, following a formalized decision-making process based on a multiple-expert protocol. The third phase was dedicated to documentation and dissemination. The hazard assessment workflow was structured in Steps and Levels. There are four Steps: Step-1) probabilistic earthquake model; Step-2) tsunami generation and modeling in deep water; Step-3) shoaling and inundation; Step-4) hazard aggregation and uncertainty quantification. Each Step includes a different number of Levels. Level-0 always describes the input data; the other Levels describe the intermediate results needed to proceed from one Step to another. Alternative datasets and models were considered in the implementation. The epistemic hazard uncertainty was quantified through an ensemble modeling technique accounting for alternative models' weights and yielding a distribution of hazard curves represented by the mean and various percentiles. Hazard curves were calculated at 2,343 Points of Interest (P01) distributed at an average spacing of -20 km. Precalculated probability maps for five maximum inundation heights (MIH) and hazard intensity maps for five average return periods (ARP) were produced from hazard curves. In the entire NEAM Region, MIHs of several meters are rare but not impossible. Considering a 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years (ARP approximate to 2,475 years), the POIs with MIH >5 m are fewer than 1% and are all in the Mediterranean on Libya, Egypt, Cyprus, and Greece coasts. In the North-East Atlantic, POIs with MIH >3 m are on the coasts of Mauritania and Gulf of Cadiz. Overall, 30% of the POIs have MIH >1 m. NEAMTHM1 8 results and documentation are available through the TSUMAPS-NEAM project website (http://www.tsumaps-neam.eu/), featuring an interactive web mapper. Although the NEAMTHM1 8 cannot substitute in-depth analyses at local scales, it represents the first action to start local and more detailed hazard and risk assessments and contributes to designing evacuation maps for tsunami early warning.

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Basili Roberto, Brizuela Beatriz, Herrero Andre, Iqbal Sarfraz, Lorito Stefano, Maesano Francesco Emanuele, Murphy Shane, Perfetti Paolo, Romano Fabrizio, Scala Antonio, Selva Jacopo, Taroni Matteo, Tiberti Mara Monica, Thio Hong Kie, Tonini Roberto, Volpe Manuela, Glimsdal Sylfest, Harbitz Carl Bonnevie, Lovholt Finn, Baptista Maria Ana, Carrilho Fernando, Matias Luis Manuel, Omira Rachid, Babeyko Andrey, Hoechner Andreas, Gurbuz Mucahit, Pekcan Onur, Yalciner Ahmet, Canals Miquel, Lastras Galderic, Agalos Apostolos, Papadopoulos Gerassimos, Triantafyllou Ioanna, Benchekroun Sabah, Agrebi Jaouadi Hedi, Ben Abdallah Samir, Bouallegue Atef, Hamdi Hassene, Oueslati Foued, Amato Alessandro, Armigliato Alberto, Behrens Joern, Davies Gareth, Di Bucci Daniela, Dolce Mauro, Geist Eric, Gonzalez Vida Jose Manuel, Gonzalez Mauricio, Macias Sanchez Jorge, Meletti Carlo, Ozer Sozdinler Ceren, Pagani Marco, Parsons Tom, Polet Jascha, Power William, Sorensen Mathilde, Zaytsev Andrey (2021). The Making of the NEAM Tsunami Hazard Model 2018 (NEAMTHM18). Frontiers In Earth Science, 8, 616594 (29p.). Publisher's official version : https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2020.616594 , Open Access version : https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00689/80114/