FN Archimer Export Format
PT J
TI Exploring the future of the Coral Sea micronekton
BT 
AF Receveur, Aurore
   Dutheil, Cyril
   Gorgues, Thomas
   Menkes, Christophe
   Lengaigne, Matthieu
   Nicol, Simon
   Lehodey, Patrick
   Allain, Valerie
   Menard, Frederic
   Lebourges-Dhaussy, Anne
AS 1:1,2,3;2:2,4;3:5;4:2;5:6;6:1,7;7:1,8;8:1;9:3;10:9;
FF 1:;2:;3:;4:;5:;6:;7:;8:;9:;10:;
C1 OFP/FEMA, Pacific Community, 95 Promenade Roger Laroque, BP D5, Nouméa, New Caledonia
   ENTROPIE, UMR 9220, IRD, Univ. de la Réunion, CNRS, 101 Promenade Roger Laroque, Nouméa, New Caledonia
   Aix Marseille Univ, Université de Toulon, CNRS, IRD, MIO, Marseille, France
   Department of Physical Oceanography and Instrumentation, IOW, Leibniz Institute for Baltic Sea Research Warnemünde, Rostock, Germany
   Univ. Brest, CNRS, Ifremer, IRD, Laboratoire d'Océanographie Physique et Spatiale (LOPS), IUEM, F-29280, Plouzane, France
   MARBEC, University of Montpellier, CNRS, IFREMER, IRD, Sete, France
   Institute for Applied Ecology, University of Canberra, Bruce 2601, Australia
   CLS, Sustainable Fisheries, Marine Ecosystem Modelling, 11 rue Hermes, Ramonville, France
   IRD, Univ. Brest, CNRS, Ifremer, LEMAR, Campus Ifremer, BP70, Plouzane, France
C2 OFP FEMA, FRANCE
   IRD, FRANCE
   UNIV AIX MARSEILLE, FRANCE
   LEIBNIZ INST BALT SEA RES (IOW), GERMANY
   UBO, FRANCE
   IRD, FRANCE
   UNIV CANBERRA, AUSTRALIA
   CLS, FRANCE
   IRD, FRANCE
UM LOPS
   LEMAR
   MARBEC
   ENTROPIE
IN WOS Cotutelle UMR
   copubli-france
   copubli-europe
   copubli-univ-france
   copubli-int-hors-europe
IF 4.416
TC 4
UR https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00696/80780/84115.pdf
   https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00696/80780/84116.docx
LA English
DT Article
DE ;Micronekton;Echosounder;Coral Sea;Climate change;Dynamical ecosystem model;Statistical ecosystem model
AB Ecosystem models forced by future climate simulations outputs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulate a substantial decline of tropical marine animal biomass over the course of the 21st century. Regional projections are however far more uncertain because of well-known biases common to most CMIP5 historical simulations that propagate within the food web. Moreover, the model outputs for high trophic levels marine fauna suffer from lack of validation based on in situ data. In this study, we implement a “bias-mitigation” strategy to reduce the physical oceanography and biogeochemical biases simulated by three CMIP5 models under the future RCP8.5 scenario. We force two very different micronekton models with these “bias-mitigated” outputs to infer the future micronekton changes in the Coral Sea: a 3-D deterministic population dynamics model; and a 3-D statistical model based on in situ hydro-acoustic data. These two models forecast a consistent pattern of micronekton abundance changes in the epipelagic layer (0–150 m) by 2100 for three different climate forcing used, with a marked decrease south of 22°S and a smaller increase further north mostly related to temperature and chlorophyll changes. In contrast, changes in the vertical patterns of micronekton predicted by the two models considerably differ in the upper mesopelagic layers (150–450 m) and lower mesopelagic layer (450–1000 m), highlighting the structural sensitivity in model type. Since micronekton are prey of all larger marine predators, those discrepancies in vertical structures of micronekton may hamper our potential to predict how top predators may evolve in the future. 
PY 2021
PD JUN
SO Progress In Oceanography
SN 0079-6611
PU Elsevier BV
VL 195
UT 000660310900002
DI 10.1016/j.pocean.2021.102593
ID 80780
ER

EF