TY - JOUR T1 - Current Status of Forecasting Toxic Harmful Algae for the North-East Atlantic Shellfish Aquaculture Industry A1 - Fernandes-Salvador,Jose A A1 - Davidson,Keith A1 - Sourisseau,Marc A1 - Revilla,Marta A1 - Schmidt,Wiebke A1 - Clarke,Dave A1 - Miller,Peter I A1 - Arce,Paola A1 - Fernandez,Raul A1 - Maman,Luz A1 - Silva,Alexandra A1 - Whyte,Callum A1 - Mateo,Maria A1 - Neira,Patricia A1 - Mateus,Marcos A1 - Ruiz-Villarreal,Manuel A1 - Ferrera,Luis A1 - Silke,Joe AD - AZTI, Marine Research, Basque Research and Technology Alliance, Pasaia, Spain AD - Scottish Association for Marine Science, Scottish Marine Institute, Oban, United Kingdom AD - French Research Institute for Exploitation of the Sea, Ifremer DYNECO PELAGOS, Plouzané, France AD - Marine Institute, Galway, Ireland AD - Environment Agency, Chief Scientist’s Group, Bristol, United Kingdom AD - Plymouth Marine Laboratory, Plymouth, United Kingdom AD - Laboratorio de Control de Calidad de los Recursos Pesqueros, Agencia de Gestión Agraria y Pesquera de Andalucía, Consejería de Agricultura, Ganadería, Pesca y Desarrollo Sostenible, Junta de Andalucía, Cartaya, Spain AD - Phytoplankton Laboratory, Division of Oceanography and Marine Environment, Instituto Português do Mar e da Atmosfera, Lisbon, Portugal AD - MARETEC – Marine, Environment and Technology Centre, LARSyS, Instituto Superior Técnico, Universidade de Lisboa, Lisbon, Portugal AD - Centro Oceanográfico de A Coruña, Instituto Español de Oceanografía (IEO,CSIC), A Coruña, Spain UR - https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00698/80981/ DO - 10.3389/fmars.2021.666583 KW - modeling KW - machine learning KW - toxins KW - phytoplankton KW - food production KW - short-term KW - regulation KW - early warning systems N2 - Across the European Atlantic Arc (Scotland, Ireland, England, France, Spain, and Portugal) the shellfish aquaculture industry is dominated by the production of mussels, followed by oysters and clams. A range of spatially and temporally variable harmful algal bloom species (HABs) impact the industry through their production of biotoxins that accumulate and concentrate in shellfish flesh, which negatively impact the health of consumers through consumption. Regulatory monitoring of harmful cells in the water column and toxin concentrations within shellfish flesh are currently the main means of warning of elevated toxin events in bivalves, with harvesting being suspended when toxicity is elevated above EU regulatory limits. However, while such an approach is generally successful in safeguarding human health, it does not provide the early warning that is needed to support business planning and harvesting by the aquaculture industry. To address this issue, a proliferation of web portals have been developed to make monitoring data widely accessible. These systems are now transitioning from “nowcasts” to operational Early Warning Systems (EWS) to better mitigate against HAB-generated harmful effects. To achieve this, EWS are incorporating a range of environmental data parameters and developing varied forecasting approaches. For example, EWS are increasingly utilizing satellite data and the results of oceanographic modeling to identify and predict the behavior of HABs. Modeling demonstrates that some HABs can be advected significant distances before impacting aquaculture sites. Traffic light indices are being developed to provide users with an easily interpreted assessment of HAB and biotoxin risk, and expert interpretation of these multiple data streams is being used to assess risk into the future. Proof-of-concept EWS are being developed to combine model information with in situ data, in some cases using machine learning-based approaches. This article: (1) reviews HAB and biotoxin issues relevant to shellfish aquaculture in the European Atlantic Arc (Scotland, Ireland, England, France, Spain, and Portugal; (2) evaluates the current status of HAB events and EWS in the region; and (3) evaluates the potential of further improving these EWS though multi-disciplinary approaches combining heterogeneous sources of information. Y1 - 2021/06 PB - Frontiers Media JF - Frontiers In Marine Science SN - 2296-7745 VL - 8 ID - 80981 ER -