FN Archimer Export Format
PT J
TI Identifying uncertainties in scenarios and models of socio-ecological systems in support of decision-making
BT 
AF Rounsevell, Mark D.A.
   Arneth, Almut
   Brown, Calum
   Cheung, William W.L.
   Gimenez, Olivier
   Holman, Ian
   Leadley, Paul
   Luján, Criscely
   Mahevas, Stephanie
   Maréchaux, Isabelle
   Pélissier, Raphaël
   Verburg, Peter H.
   Vieilledent, Ghislain
   Wintle, Brendan A.
   Shin, Yunne-Jai
AS 1:1,2;2:1;3:1;4:3;5:4;6:5;7:6;8:6,7;9:8;10:9;11:9;12:10,11;13:9;14:12;15:7,13;
FF 1:;2:;3:;4:;5:;6:;7:;8:;9:PDG-RBE-EMH;10:;11:;12:;13:;14:;15:;
C1 Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research/Atmospheric Environmental Research (IMK-IFU), Garmisch-Partenkirchen, and the Department of Geo-ecology (IFGG), Karlsruhe, Germany
   School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Drummond Street, Edinburgh EH8 9XP, UK
   Changing Ocean Research Unit, Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, the University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada
   CEFE, CNRS, University Montpellier, EPHE, IRD, University Paul Valéry Montpellier 3, Montpellier, France
   Cranfield Water Science Institute, Cranfield University, Bedford MK43 0AL, UK
   Laboratoire d'Ecologie Systématique Evolution, Université Paris-Saclay, CNRS, AgroParisTech, Université Paris-Saclay, 91400 Orsay, France
   Institut de Recherche pour le Développement, MARBEC (Univ Montpellier, IRD, Ifremer, CNRS), Montpellier, France
   EMH, Ifremer, Centre Atlantique, Rue de l'Ile d'Yeu, BP 21105, 44311 Nantes Cedex 03, France
   AMAP Lab, University of Montpellier, CIRAD, CNRS, INRAE, IRD, 34000 Montpellier, France
   Institute for Environmental Studies, VU University Amsterdam, de Boelelaan 1087, 1081 HV Amsterdam, the Netherlands
   Swiss Federal Research Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research (WSL), Birmensdorf, Switzerland
   School of Ecosystem and Forest Science, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC 3010, Australia
   University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa
C2 KIT, GERMANY
   UNIV EDINBURGH, UK
   UNIV BRITISH COLUMBIA, CANADA
   CNRS, FRANCE
   UNIV CRANFIELD, UK
   UNIV PARIS SACLAY, FRANCE
   IRD, FRANCE
   IFREMER, FRANCE
   UNIV MONTPELLIER, FRANCE
   UNIV VRIJE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS
   SWISS FED RES INST WSL, SWITZERLAND
   UNIV MELBOURNE, AUSTRALIA
   UNIV CAPE TOWN, SOUTH AFRICA
SI NANTES
SE PDG-RBE-EMH
UM MARBEC
IN WOS Ifremer UPR
   WOS Cotutelle UMR
   copubli-france
   copubli-p187
   copubli-europe
   copubli-univ-france
   copubli-int-hors-europe
   copubli-sud
IF 14.944
TC 24
UR https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00711/82265/87087.pdf
LA English
DT Article
AB There are many sources of uncertainty in scenarios and models of socio-ecological systems, and understanding these uncertainties is critical in supporting informed decision-making about the management of natural resources. Here, we review uncertainty across the steps needed to create socio-ecological scenarios, from narrative storylines to the representation of human and biological processes in models and the estimation of scenario and model parameters. We find that socio-ecological scenarios and models would benefit from moving away from “stylized” approaches that do not consider a wide range of direct drivers and their dependency on indirect drivers. Indeed, a greater focus on the social phenomena is fundamental in understanding the functioning of nature on a human-dominated planet. There is no panacea for dealing with uncertainty, but several approaches to evaluating uncertainty are still not routinely applied in scenario modeling, and this is becoming increasingly unacceptable. However, it is important to avoid uncertainties becoming an excuse for inaction in decision-making when facing environmental challenges. 
PY 2021
PD JUN
SO One Earth
SN 2590-3330
PU Elsevier BV
VL 4
IS 7
UT 000678340300013
BP 967
EP 985
DI 10.1016/j.oneear.2021.06.003
ID 82265
ER

EF