FN Archimer Export Format PT J TI Disentangling diverse responses to climate change among global marine ecosystem models BT AF Heneghan, Ryan F. Galbraith, Eric Blanchard, Julia Harrison, Cheryl Barrier, Nicolas Bulman, Catherine Cheung, William Coll, Marta Eddy, Tyler D. Erauskin-Extramiana, Maite Everett, Jason D. Fernandes-Salvador, Jose A. Gascuel, Didier Guiet, Jerome Maury, Olivier Palacios-Abrantes, Juliano Petrik, Colleen M. du Pontavice, Hubert Richardson, Anthony J. Steenbeek, Jeroen Tai, Travis C. Volkholz, Jan Woodworth-Jefcoats, Phoebe A. Tittensor, Derek P. AS 1:1,2;2:1,3;3:4;4:5;5:6;6:7;7:8;8:9;9:10;10:11;11:12,13,14;12:11;13:15;14:16;15:6;16:17;17:18;18:15,17;19:13,14;20:9;21:17;22:19;23:20;24:21; FF 1:;2:;3:;4:;5:;6:;7:;8:;9:;10:;11:;12:;13:;14:;15:;16:;17:;18:;19:;20:;21:;22:;23:;24:; C1 Institut de Ciència i Tecnologia Ambientals, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain School of Mathematical Sciences, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, QLD, Australia Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, McGill University, Montreal, QC, Canada Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tas, Australia School of Earth Environmental and Marine Science, University of Texas Rio Grande Valley, Port Isabel, TX, USA MARBEC, IRD, Univ. Montpellier, Ifremer, CNRS, Sète, France CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Castray Esplanade, Hobart, Tas 7001, Australia Nippon Foundation-Nereus Program, Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC V6 T 1Z4, Canada Institute of Marie Science (ICM-CSIC), Passeig Marítim de la Barceloneta, n° 37-49 and Ecopath International Initiative Research Association, 08003, Barcelona, Spain Centre for Fisheries Ecosystems Research, Fisheries & Marine Institute, Memorial University of Newfoundland, St. John’s, NL, Canada AZTI, Marine Research, Basque Research and Technology Alliance (BRTA), Herrera Kaia, Portualdea z/g, 20110 Pasaia, San Sebastián, Spain CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Queensland BioSciences Precinct (QBP), St Lucia, Qld 4067, Australia Centre for Applications in Natural Resource Mathematics, School of Mathematics and Physics, The University of Queensland, St Lucia, Qld 4072, Australia Centre for Marine Science and Innovation, School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Science, The University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia ESE, Ecology and Ecosystem Health, Institut Agro, INRAE, Rennes, France Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of California, Los Angeles, CA, USA The Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada Department of Oceanography, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX, USA Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany Pacific Islands Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Honolulu, HI, USA Department of Biology, Dalhousie University, Halifax, NS, Canada C2 UNIV AUTONOMA BARCELONA, SPAIN UNIV QUEENSLAND, AUSTRALIA UNIV MCGILL, CANADA UNIV TASMANIA, AUSTRALIA UNIV TEXAS, USA IRD, FRANCE CSIRO OCEANS AND ATMOSPHERE, AUSTRALIA MPO, CANADA ICM-CSIC, SPAIN UNIV MEM NEWFOUNDLAND, CANADA AZTI, SPAIN CSIRO OCEANS AND ATMOSPHERE, AUSTRALIA UNIV QUEENSLAND, AUSTRALIA UNIV NEW SOUTH WALES, AUSTRALIA INRAE, FRANCE UNIV CALIF LOS ANGELES, USA MPO, CANADA UNIV TEXAS A&M, USA PIK, GERMANY NOAA, USA UNIV DALHOUSIE, CANADA UM MARBEC IN WOS Cotutelle UMR copubli-france copubli-europe copubli-int-hors-europe IF 4.416 TC 35 UR https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00720/83185/88127.pdf https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00720/83185/88128.docx LA English DT Article DE ;Climatic change;Modelling;Fishery oceanography;Marine ecology;FishMIP;Structural uncertainty AB Climate change is warming the ocean and impacting lower trophic level (LTL) organisms. Marine ecosystem models can provide estimates of how these changes will propagate to larger animals and impact societal services such as fisheries, but at present these estimates vary widely. A better understanding of what drives this inter-model variation will improve our ability to project fisheries and other ecosystem services into the future, while also helping to identify uncertainties in process understanding. Here, we explore the mechanisms that underlie the diversity of responses to changes in temperature and LTLs in eight global marine ecosystem models from the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (FishMIP). Temperature and LTL impacts on total consumer biomass and ecosystem structure (defined as the relative change of small and large organism biomass) were isolated using a comparative experimental protocol. Total model biomass varied between −35% to +3% in response to warming, and -17% to +15% in response to LTL changes. There was little consensus about the spatial redistribution of biomass or changes in the balance between small and large organisms (ecosystem structure) in response to warming, an LTL impacts on total consumer biomass varied depending on the choice of LTL forcing terms. Overall, climate change impacts on consumer biomass and ecosystem structure are well approximated by the sum of temperature and LTL impacts, indicating an absence of nonlinear interaction between the models’ drivers. Our results highlight a lack of theoretical clarity about how to represent fundamental ecological mechanisms, most importantly how temperature impacts scale from individual to ecosystem level, and the need to better understand the two-way coupling between LTL organisms and consumers. We finish by identifying future research needs to strengthen global marine ecosystem modelling and improve projections of climate change impacts. PY 2021 PD NOV SO Progress In Oceanography SN 0079-6611 PU Elsevier BV VL 198 UT 000703808100001 DI 10.1016/j.pocean.2021.102659 ID 83185 ER EF