FN Archimer Export Format PT J TI Next-generation ensemble projections reveal higher climate risks for marine ecosystems BT AF Tittensor, Derek P. Novaglio, Camilla Harrison, Cheryl S. Heneghan, Ryan F. Barrier, Nicolas Bianchi, Daniele Bopp, Laurent Bryndum-Buchholz, Andrea Britten, Gregory L. Büchner, Matthias Cheung, William W. L. Christensen, Villy Coll, Marta Dunne, John P. Eddy, Tyler D. Everett, Jason D. Fernandes-Salvador, Jose A. Fulton, Elizabeth A. Galbraith, Eric D. Gascuel, Didier Guiet, Jerome John, Jasmin G. Link, Jason S. Lotze, Heike K. Maury, Olivier Ortega-Cisneros, Kelly Palacios-Abrantes, Juliano Petrik, Colleen M. du Pontavice, Hubert Rault, Jonathan Richardson, Anthony J. Shannon, Lynne Shin, Yunne-Jai Steenbeek, Jeroen Stock, Charles A. Blanchard, Julia L AS 1:1,2;2:3,4;3:5,6;4:7;5:8;6:9;7:10;8:1;9:11;10:12;11:13;12:13;13:14,15;14:16;15:17;16:18,19,20;17:21;18:4,22;19:23;20:24;21:9;22:16;23:25;24:1;25:8;26:26;27:13,27;28:28;29:24,29;30:8;31:18,19;32:26;33:8;34:15;35:16;36:3,4; FF 1:;2:;3:;4:;5:;6:;7:;8:;9:;10:;11:;12:;13:;14:;15:;16:;17:;18:;19:;20:;21:;22:;23:;24:;25:;26:;27:;28:;29:;30:;31:;32:;33:;34:;35:;36:; C1 Department of Biology, Dalhousie University, Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada United Nations Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre, Cambridge, UK Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia Center for Marine Socio-ecology, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia School of Earth, Environmental and Marine Science, University of Texas Rio Grande Valley, Port Isabel, TX, USA Department of Ocean and Coastal Science and Centre for Computation and Technology, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, LA, USA School of Mathematical Sciences, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia MARBEC, IRD, Univ Montpellier, Ifremer, CNRS, Sète/Montpellier, France Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, USA LMD/IPSL, CNRS, Ecole Normale Supérieure, Université PSL, Sorbonne Université, Ecole Polytechnique, Paris, France Program in Atmospheres, Oceans, and Climate, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, USA Potsdam-Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam, Germany Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada Institute of Marine Science (ICM-CSIC), Barcelona, Spain Ecopath International Initiative Research Association, Barcelona, Spain NOAA/OAR Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, USA Centre for Fisheries Ecosystems Research, Fisheries and Marine Institute, Memorial University of Newfoundland, St. John’s, Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada School of Mathematics and Physics, The University of Queensland, St. Lucia, Queensland, Australia Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) Oceans and Atmosphere, Queensland Biosciences Precinct, St Lucia, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia Centre for Marine Science and Innovation, The University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia AZTI, Marine Research, Basque Research and Technology Alliance (BRTA), Sukarrieta (Bizkaia), Spain Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) Oceans and Atmosphere, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia Department of Earth and Planetary Science, McGill University, Montreal, Quebec, Canada UMR Ecology and Ecosystems Health (ESE), Institut Agro, Inrae, Rennes, France NOAA Fisheries, Woods Hole, MA, USA Department of Biological Sciences, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa Center for Limnology, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI, USA Department of Oceanography, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX, USA Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Program, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA C2 UNIV DALHOUSIE, CANADA UNEP WCMC, UK UNIV TASMANIA, AUSTRALIA UNIV TASMANIA, AUSTRALIA UNIV TEXAS, USA UNIV LOUISIANA STATE, USA UNIV QUEENSLAND, AUSTRALIA IRD, FRANCE UNIV CALIF LOS ANGELES, USA CNRS, FRANCE MIT, USA PIK, GERMANY MPO, CANADA INSTITUTE OF MARINE SCIENCE (ICM-CSIC), SPAIN ECOPATH INT INITIAT RES ASSOC, SPAIN NOAA, USA UNIV NEWFOUNDLAND, CANADA UNIV QUEENSLAND, AUSTRALIA CSIRO OCEANS & ATMOSPHERE, AUSTRALIA UNIV NEW S WALES, AUSTRALIA AZTI, SPAIN CSIRO, AUSTRALIA UNIV MCGILL, CANADA INRAE, FRANCE NOAA, USA UNIV CAPE TOWN, SOUTH AFRICA UNIV WISCONSIN, USA UNIV TEXAS A&M, USA UNIV PRINCETON, USA UM MARBEC IN WOS Cotutelle UMR copubli-france copubli-europe copubli-int-hors-europe copubli-sud IF 28.862 TC 92 UR https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00731/84276/89263.pdf https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00731/84276/89264.pdf https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00731/84276/89265.pdf LA English DT Article AB Projections of climate change impacts on marine ecosystems have revealed long-term declines in global marine animal biomass and unevenly distributed impacts on fisheries. Here we apply an enhanced suite of global marine ecosystem models from the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (Fish-MIP), forced by new-generation Earth system model outputs from Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), to provide insights into how projected climate change will affect future ocean ecosystems. Compared with the previous generation CMIP5-forced Fish-MIP ensemble, the new ensemble ecosystem simulations show a greater decline in mean global ocean animal biomass under both strong-mitigation and high-emissions scenarios due to elevated warming, despite greater uncertainty in net primary production in the high-emissions scenario. Regional shifts in the direction of biomass changes highlight the continued and urgent need to reduce uncertainty in the projected responses of marine ecosystems to climate change to help support adaptation planning. PY 2021 PD NOV SO Nature Climate Change SN 1758-678X PU Springer Science and Business Media LLC VL 11 IS 11 UT 000709662300002 BP 973 EP 981 DI 10.1038/s41558-021-01173-9 ID 84276 ER EF