FN Archimer Export Format
PT J
TI Novel and disappearing climates in the global surface ocean from 1800 to 2100
BT 
AF LOTTERHOS, Katie E.
   LARUSON, Aki J.
   JIANG, Li-Qing
AS 1:1;2:1,2;3:3,4;
FF 1:;2:;3:;
C1 Northeastern Univ, Marine Sci Ctr, 430 Nahant Rd, Nahant, MA 01908, USA.
   Cornell Univ, Dept Nat Resources, Ithaca, NY 14850 ,USA.
   Univ Maryland, Earth Syst Sci Interdisciplinary Ctr, College Pk, MD 20740, USA.
   NOAA, Natl Ctr Environm Informat, Silver Spring, MD 20910, USA.
C2 UNIV NORTHEASTERN, USA
   UNIV CORNELL, USA
   UNIV MARYLAND, USA
   NOAA, USA
IN DOAJ
IF 4.997
TC 18
UR https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00755/86723/92168.pdf
LA English
DT Article
CR OISO - OCÉAN INDIEN SERVICE D'OBSERVATION
AB Marine ecosystems are experiencing unprecedented warming and acidification caused by anthropogenic carbon dioxide. For the global sea surface, we quantified the degree that present climates are disappearing and novel climates (without recent analogs) are emerging, spanning from 1800 through different emission scenarios to 2100. We quantified the sea surface environment based on model estimates of carbonate chemistry and temperature. Between 1800 and 2000, no gridpoints on the ocean surface were estimated to have experienced an extreme degree of global disappearance or novelty. In other words, the majority of environmental shifts since 1800 were not novel, which is consistent with evidence that marine species have been able to track shifting environments via dispersal. However, between 2000 and 2100 under Representative Concentrations Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 projections, 10-82% of the surface ocean is estimated to experience an extreme degree of global novelty. Additionally, 35-95% of the surface ocean is estimated to experience an extreme degree of global disappearance. These upward estimates of climate novelty and disappearance are larger than those predicted for terrestrial systems. Without mitigation, many species will face rapidly disappearing or novel climates that cannot be outpaced by dispersal and may require evolutionary adaptation to keep pace. 
PY 2021
PD AUG
SO Scientific Reports
SN 2045-2322
PU Nature Portfolio
VL 11
IS 1
UT 000691021200015
DI 10.1038/s41598-021-94872-4
ID 86723
ER

EF