FN Archimer Export Format
PT J
TI Applying landscape metrics to species distribution model predictions to characterize internal range structure and associated changes
BT 
AF CURD, Amelia
   CHEVALIER, Mathieu
   VASQUEZ, Mickaël
   BOYÉ, Aurélien
   Firth, Louise B.
   MARZLOFF, Martin
   Bricheno, Lucy M.
   Burrows, Michael T.
   Bush, Laura E.
   CORDIER, Celine
   Davies, Andrew J.
   Mattias Green, J.A.
   Hawkins, Stepehen J.
   Lima, Fernando P.
   Meneghesso, Claudia
   Mieszkowska, Nova
   Seabra, Rui
   DUBOIS, Stanislas
AS 1:1;2:1;3:1;4:1;5:2;6:1;7:3;8:4;9:5;10:1;11:6,7;12:8;13:2,9,10;14:11,12;15:11,12,13;16:10,14;17:11;18:1;
FF 1:PDG-ODE-DYNECO-LEBCO;2:PDG-ODE-DYNECO-LEBCO;3:PDG-ODE-DYNECO-LEBCO;4:PDG-ODE-DYNECO-LEBCO;5:;6:PDG-ODE-DYNECO-LEBCO;7:;8:;9:;10:PDG-ODE-DYNECO-LEBCO;11:;12:;13:;14:;15:;16:;17:;18:PDG-ODE-DYNECO-LEBCO;
C1 IFREMER, Centre de Bretagne, DYNECO LEBCO, Plouzané, France
   School of Biological and Marine Sciences, University of Plymouth, Drake Circus, Plymouth, UK
   National Oceanography Centre, Liverpool, UK
   Scottish Association for Marine Science, Scottish Marine Institute, Oban, UK
   FUGRO GB Marine Limited, Gait 8, Research Park South, Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh, UK
   Department of Biological Sciences, University of Rhode Island, Kingston, Rhode Island, USA
   Graduate School of Oceanography, University of Rhode Island, Narragansett, Rhode Island, USA
   School of Ocean Sciences, Bangor University, Bangor, UK
   Ocean and Earth Science, National Oceanography Centre Southampton, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK
   The Marine Biological Association of the UK, Citadel Hill, Plymouth, UK
   CIBIO, Centro de Investigação em Biodiversidade e Recursos Genéticos, InBIO Laboratório Associado, Campus de Vairão, Vairão, Portugal
   BIOPOLIS Program in Genomics, Biodiversity and Land Planning, Campus de Vairão, Vairão, Portugal
   Departamento de Biologia, Faculdade de Ciências da Universidade do Porto, Porto, Portugal
   Department of Earth, Ocean and Ecological Sciences, School of Environmental Sciences, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK
C2 IFREMER, FRANCE
   UNIV PLYMOUTH, UK
   NOC, UK
   SAMS, UK
   UNIV HERIOT WATT, UK
   UNIV RHODE ISL, USA
   UNIV RHODE ISL, USA
   UNIV BANGOR, UK
   UNIV SOUTHAMPTON, UK
   MBA, UK
   CIBIO, PORTUGAL
   BIOPOLIS PROGRAM IN GENOMICS, PORTUGAL
   UNIV PORTO, PORTUGAL
   UNIV LIVERPOOL, UK
SI BREST
SE PDG-ODE-DYNECO-LEBCO
IN WOS Ifremer UPR
   copubli-europe
   copubli-int-hors-europe
IF 11.6
TC 5
UR https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00805/91725/97760.pdf
LA English
DT Article
DE ;climate change;engineer species;landscape metrics;patch dynamics;range fragmentation;species distribution modelling;within-range structure
AB Distributional shifts in species ranges provide critical evidence of ecological responses to climate change. Assessments of climate-driven changes typically focus on broad-scale range shifts (e.g. poleward or upward), with ecological consequences at regional and local scales commonly overlooked. While these changes are informative for species presenting continuous geographic ranges, many species have discontinuous distributions—both natural (e.g. mountain or coastal species) or human-induced (e.g. species inhabiting fragmented landscapes)—where within-range changes can be significant. Here, we use an ecosystem engineer species (Sabellaria alveolata) with a naturally fragmented distribution as a case study to assess climate-driven changes in within-range occupancy across its entire global distribution. To this end, we applied landscape ecology metrics to outputs from species distribution modelling (SDM) in a novel unified framework. SDM predicted a 27.5% overall increase in the area of potentially suitable habitat under RCP 4.5 by 2050, which taken in isolation would have led to the classification of the species as a climate change winner. SDM further revealed that the latitudinal range is predicted to shrink because of decreased habitat suitability in the equatorward part of the range, not compensated by a poleward expansion. The use of landscape ecology metrics provided additional insights by identifying regions that are predicted to become increasingly fragmented in the future, potentially increasing extirpation risk by jeopardising metapopulation dynamics. This increased range fragmentation could have dramatic consequences for ecosystem structure and functioning. Importantly, the proposed framework—which brings together SDM and landscape metrics—can be widely used to study currently overlooked climate-driven changes in species internal range structure, without requiring detailed empirical knowledge of the modelled species. This approach represents an important advancement beyond predictive envelope approaches and could reveal itself as paramount for managers whose spatial scale of action usually ranges from local to regional. 
PY 2023
PD FEB
SO Global Change Biology
SN 1354-1013
PU Wiley / Blackwell
VL 29
IS 3
UT 000888914800001
BP 631
EP 647
DI 10.1111/gcb.16496
ID 91725
ER

EF