Global Carbon Budget 2022

Type Article
Date 2022-11
Language English
Author(s) Friedlingstein PierreORCID1, 2, O'Sullivan Michael1, Jones Matthew W.3, Andrew Robbie M.4, Gregor LukeORCID5, 6, Hauck JudithORCID7, Le Quere CorinneORCID3, Luijkx Ingrid T.8, Olsen AreORCID9, 10, Peters Glen P.4, Peters WouterORCID8, 11, Pongratz Julia12, 13, Schwingshackl Clemens12, Sitch Stephen1, Canadell Josep G.14, Ciais Philippe15, Jackson Robert B.16, 17, Alin Simone R.18, Alkama Ramdane19, Arneth Almut20, Arora Vivek K.21, Bates Nicholas R.22, 23, Becker Meike9, 10, Bellouin Nicolas24, Bittig Henry C.25, Bopp Laurent2, Chevallier FredericORCID15, Chini Louise P.26, Cronin Margot27, Evans Wiley28, Falk Stefanie12, Feely Richard A.18, Gasser ThomasORCID29, Gehlen Marion15, Gkritzalis Thanos30, Gloege Lucas31, 32, 33, Grassi Giacomo19, Gruber NicolasORCID5, 6, Gurses OzgurORCID7, Harris Ian34, Hefner Matthew35, 36, Houghton Richard A.37, Hurtt George C.26, Iida Yosuke38, Ilyina Tatiana13, Jain Atul K.39, Jersild Annika13, Kadono Koji38, Kato Etsushi40, Kennedy Daniel41, Goldewijk Kees Klein42, Knauer Jurgen43, 44, Korsbakken Jan IvarORCID4, Landschutzer Peter13, 30, Lefevre Nathalie45, Lindsay Keith46, Liu JunjieORCID47, Liu Zhu48, Marland Gregg35, 36, Mayot NicolasORCID3, McGrath Matthew J.15, Metzl Nicolas45, Monacci Natalie M.49, Munro David R.50, 51, Nakaoka Shin-Ichiro52, Niwa Yosuke43, 52, O'Brien Kevin18, 54, Ono Tsuneo55, Palmer Paul, I56, 57, Pan Naiqing58, 59, Pierrot Denis60, Pocock Katie28, Poulter Benjamin61, Resplandy LaureORCID62, 63, Robertson Eddy64, Rodenbeck Christian65, Rodriguez Carmen66, Rosan Thais M.1, Schwinger Jorg10, 67, Seferian Roland68, Shutler Jamie D.1, Skjelvan IngunnORCID10, 67, Steinhoff Tobias69, Sun Qing70, 71, Sutton Adrienne J.18, Sweeney Colm51, Takao Shintaro52, Tanhua Toste69, Tans Pieter P.51, 72, Tian Xiangjun73, Tian HanqinORCID59, Tilbrook Bronte74, 75, Tsujino Hiroyuki53, Tubiello Francesco76, Van Der Werf Guido R.77, Walker Anthony P.78, 79, Wanninkhof Rik60, Whitehead Chris80, Wranne Anna Willstrand81, Wright Rebecca3, Yuan Wenping82, Yue Chao83, Yue Xu84, Zaehle Sonke65, Zeng Jiye52, Zheng Bo85
Affiliation(s) 1 : Univ Exeter, Fac Environm Sci & Econ, Exeter EX4 4QF, Devon, England.
2 : Univ PSL, Ecole Normale Super, Sorbonne Univ, Ecole Polytech,Lab Meteorol Dynam,Inst Pierre Sim, F-75231 Paris, France.
3 : Univ East Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Tyndall Ctr Climate Change Res, Norwich Res Pk, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England.
4 : CICERO Ctr Int Climate Res, N-0349 Oslo, Norway.
5 : Swiss Fed Inst Technol, Inst Biogeochem & Pollutant Dynam, Environm Phys Grp, Zurich, Switzerland.
6 : Swiss Fed Inst Technol, Ctr Climate Syst Modeling C2SM, Zurich, Switzerland.
7 : Helmholtz Zentrum Polar & Meeresforsch, Alfred Wegener Inst, Postfach 120161, D-27515 Bremerhaven, Germany.
8 : Wageningen Univ, Environm Sci Grp, POB 47, NL-6700 AA Wageningen, Netherlands.
9 : Univ Bergen, Geophys Inst, Bergen, Norway.
10 : Bjerknes Ctr Climate Res, Bergen, Norway.
11 : Univ Groningen, Ctr Isotope Res, Groningen, Netherlands.
12 : Ludwig Maximilians Univ Munchen, Dept Geog, Luisenstr 37, D-80333 Munich, Germany.
13 : Max Planck Inst Meteorol, D-20146 Hamburg, Germany.
14 : CSIRO Oceans & Atmosphere, Canberra, ACT 2101, Australia.
15 : Univ Paris Saclay, CEA CNRS UVSQ, LSCE IPSL, Lab Sci Climat & Environm, F-91191 Gif Sur Yvette, France.
16 : Stanford Univ, Woods Inst Environm, Dept Earth Syst Sci, Stanford, CA 94305 USA.
17 : Stanford Univ, Precourt Inst Energy, Stanford, CA 94305 USA.
18 : NOAA, Pacific Marine Environm Lab NOAA PMEL, 7600 Sand Point Way NE, Seattle, WA 98115 USA.
19 : European Commiss, Joint Res Ctr, I-21027 Ispra, VA, Italy.
20 : Karlsruhe Inst Technol, Inst Meteorol & Climate Res, Atmospher Environm Res, D-82467 Garmisch Partenkirchen, Germany.
21 : Environm & Climate Change Canada, Climate Res Div, Canadian Ctr Climate Modelling & Anal, Victoria, BC, Canada.
22 : Bermuda Inst Ocean Sci BIOS, 17 Biol Lane, GE-01 St Georges, Bermuda.
23 : Univ Southampton, Dept Ocean & Earth Sci, European Way, Southampton SO14 3ZH, Hants, England.
24 : Univ Reading, Dept Meteorol, Reading RG6 6BB, Berks, England.
25 : Leibniz Inst Baltic Sea Res Warnemuende IOW, Seestr 15, D-18119 Rostock, Germany.
26 : Univ Maryland, Dept Geog Sci, College Pk, MD 20742 USA.
27 : Marine Inst, Galway, Ireland.
28 : Hakai Inst, Heriot Bay, BC, Canada.
29 : Int Inst Appl Syst Anal IIASA, Schlosspl 1, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria.
30 : Flanders Marine Inst VLIZ, InnovOceanSite, Jacobsenstr 1, B-8400 Oostende, Belgium.
31 : Columbia Univ, Lamont Doherty Earth Observ, New York, NY 10027 USA.
32 : Columbia Univ, Dept Earth & Environm Sci, New York, NY 10027 USA.
33 : Open Earth Fdn, Marina Del Rey, CA 90292 USA.
34 : Univ East Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, NCAS Climate, Climat Res Unit, Norwich Res Pk, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England.
35 : Appalachian State Univ, Res Inst Environm Energy & Econ, Boone, NC 28608 USA.
36 : Appalachian State Univ, Dept Geol & Environm Sci, Boone, NC 28608 USA.
37 : Woodwell Climate Res Ctr, Falmouth, MA 02540 USA.
38 : Japan Meteorol Agcy, Atmosphere & Ocean Dept, Minato Ku, Tokyo 1058431, Japan.
39 : Univ Illinois, Dept Atmospher Sci, Urbana, IL 61821 USA.
40 : Inst Appl Energy IAE, Minato Ku, Tokyo 1050003, Japan.
41 : Natl Ctr Atmospher Res Climate & Global Dynam, Terr Sci Sect, Boulder, CO 80305 USA.
42 : Univ Utrecht, Copernicus Inst Sustainable Dev, Fac Geosci, Dept IMEW, Heidelberglaan 2,POB 80115, NL-3508 TC Utrecht, Netherlands.
43 : Western Sydney Univ, Hawkesbury Inst Environm, Penrith, NSW 2751, Australia.
44 : CSIRO Oceans & Atmosphere, Climate Sci Ctr, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia.
45 : Sorbonne Univ, LOCEAN IPSL Lab, CNRS IRD MNHN, F-75252 Paris, France.
46 : Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, Oceanog Sect, Climate & Global Dynam, Boulder, CO 80305 USA.
47 : CALTECH, Jet Prop Lab, Pasadena, CA 91125 USA.
48 : Tsinghua Univ, Dept Earth Syst Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China.
49 : Univ Alaska Fairbanks, Coll Fisheries & Ocean Sci, POB 757220, Fairbanks, AK 99775 USA.
50 : Univ Colorado, Cooperat Inst Res Environm Sci, Boulder, CO 80305 USA.
51 : NOAA, Global Monitoring Lab NOAA GML, Boulder, CO 80305 USA.
52 : Natl Inst Environm Studies NIES, Earth Syst Div, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 3058506, Japan.
53 : Meteorol Res Inst, 1-1 Nagamine, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 3050052, Japan.
54 : Univ Washington, Cooperat Inst Climate Ocean & Ecosyst Studies CIC, Seattle, WA 98195 USA.
55 : Japan Fisheries Res & Educ Agcy, Kanazawa Ku, 2-12-4 Fukuura, Yokohama, Kanagawa 2368648, Japan.
56 : Univ Edinburgh, Natl Ctr Earth Observat, Edinburgh EH9 3FE, Midlothian, Scotland.
57 : Univ Edinburgh, Sch Geosci, Edinburgh EH9 3FE, Midlothian, Scotland.
58 : Auburn Univ, Coll Forestry Wildlife & Environm, Auburn, AL 36849 USA.
59 : Boston Coll, Dept Earth & Environm Sci, Schiller Inst Integrated Sci & Soc, Chestnut Hill, MA 02467 USA.
60 : NOAA, Atlantic Oceanog & Meteorol Lab NOAA AOML, Miami, FL 33149 USA.
61 : NASA Goddard Space Flight Ctr, Biospher Sci Lab, Greenbelt, MD 20771 USA.
62 : Princeton Univ, Dept Geosci, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA.
63 : Princeton Univ, Princeton Environm Inst, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA.
64 : Met Off Hadley Ctr, FitzRoy Rd, Exeter EX1 3PB, Devon, England.
65 : Max Planck Inst Biogeochem, POB 600164,Hans Knoll Str 10, D-07745 Jena, Germany.
66 : Univ Miami, RSMAS, 4600 Rickenbacker Causeway, Miami, FL 33149 USA.
67 : NORCE Norwegian Res Ctr, Jahnebakken 5, N-5007 Bergen, Norway.
68 : Univ Toulouse, CNRS, Meteo France, CNRM, F-31057 Toulouse, France.
69 : GEOMAR Helmholtz Ctr Ocean Res Kiel, Dusternbrooker Weg 20, D-24105 Kiel, Germany.
70 : Univ Bern, Climate & Environm Phys, Phys Inst, Bern, Switzerland.
71 : Univ Bern, Oeschger Ctr Climate Change Res, Bern, Switzerland.
72 : Univ Colorado, Inst Arctic & Alpine Res, Boulder, CO 80309 USA.
73 : Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Tibetan Plateau Res, State Key Lab Tibetan Plateau Earth Syst Environm, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China.
74 : CSIRO Oceans & Atmosphere, POB 1538, Hobart, Tas 7001, Australia.
75 : Univ Tasmania, Australian Antarctic Partnership Program, Hobart, Tas 7001, Australia.
76 : Food & Agr Org United Nations, Stat Div, Via Terme di Caracalla, I-00153 Rome, Italy.
77 : Vrije Univ, Fac Sci, Dept Earth Sci, NL-1081 Amsterdam, Netherlands.
78 : Oak Ridge Natl Lab, Environm Sci Div, Oak Ridge, TN 37831 USA.
79 : Oak Ridge Natl Lab, Climate Change Sci Inst, Oak Ridge, TN 37831 USA.
80 : Sitka Tribe Alaska, 456 Katlian St, Sitka, AK 99835 USA.
81 : Swedish Meteorol & Hydrol Inst, Sven Kallfeltsgata 15, S-42668 Vastra Frolunda, Sweden.
82 : Sun Yat Sen Univ, Sch Atmospher Sci, Zhuhai 510245, Guangdong, Peoples R China.
83 : Northwest A&F Univ, Inst Soil & Water Conservat, Yangling 712100, Shaanxi, Peoples R China.
84 : Nanjing Univ Informat Sci & Technol NUIST, Sch Environm Sci & Engn, Nanjing 211544, Peoples R China.
85 : Tsinghua Univ, Tsinghua Shenzhen Int Grad Sch, Inst Environm & Ecol, Shenzhen 518055, Peoples R China.
Source Earth System Science Data (1866-3508) (Copernicus Gesellschaft Mbh), 2022-11 , Vol. 14 , N. 11 , P. 4811-4900
DOI 10.5194/essd-14-4811-2022
WOS© Times Cited 213
Abstract Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate is critical to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe and synthesize data sets and methodologies to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO2 emissions (E-FOS) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land-use change (E-LUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land use and land-use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly, and its growth rate (G(ATM)) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (S-OCEAN) is estimated with global ocean biogeochemistry models and observation-based data products. The terrestrial CO2 sink (S-LAND) is estimated with dynamic global vegetation models. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (B-IM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as +/- 1 sigma. For the year 2021, EFOS increased by 5.1% relative to 2020, with fossil emissions at 10.1 +/- 0.5 GtC yr(-1) (9.9 +/- 0.5 GtC yr(-1) when the cement carbonation sink is included), and ELUC was 1.1 +/- 0.7 GtC yr(-1),for a total anthropogenic CO2 emission (including the cement carbonation sink) of 10.9 +/- 0.8 GtC yr 1 (40.0 +/- 2.9 GtCO(2)). Also, for 2021, G(ATM) was 5.2 +/- 0.2 GtC yr(-1) (2.5 +/- 0.1 ppm yr(-1)), S-OCEAN was 2.9 +/- 0.4 GtC yr(-1), and SLAND was 3.5 +/- 0.9 GtC yr(-1), with a B-IM of 0.6 GtC yr(-1) (i.e. the total estimated sources were too low or sinks were too high). The global atmospheric CO2 concentration averaged over 2021 reached 414.71 +/- 0.1 ppm. Preliminary data for 2022 suggest an increase in E-FOS relative to 2021 of +1.0% (0.1% to 1.9 %) globally and atmospheric CO2 concentration reaching 417.2 ppm, more than 50% above pre-industrial levels (around 278 ppm). Overall, the mean and trend in the components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period 1959-2021, but discrepancies of up to 1 GtC yr(-1) persist for the representation of annual to semi-decadal variability in CO2 fluxes. Comparison of estimates from multiple approaches and observations shows (1) a persistent large uncertainty in the estimate of land-use change emissions, (2) a low agreement between the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO2 flux in the northern extratropics, and (3) a discrepancy between the different methods on the strength of the ocean sink over the last decade. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new global carbon budget and the progress in understanding of the global carbon cycle compared with previous publications of this data set. The data presented in this work are available at https://doi.org/10.18160/GCP-2022 (Friedlingstein et al., 2022b).
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Friedlingstein Pierre, O'Sullivan Michael, Jones Matthew W., Andrew Robbie M., Gregor Luke, Hauck Judith, Le Quere Corinne, Luijkx Ingrid T., Olsen Are, Peters Glen P., Peters Wouter, Pongratz Julia, Schwingshackl Clemens, Sitch Stephen, Canadell Josep G., Ciais Philippe, Jackson Robert B., Alin Simone R., Alkama Ramdane, Arneth Almut, Arora Vivek K., Bates Nicholas R., Becker Meike, Bellouin Nicolas, Bittig Henry C., Bopp Laurent, Chevallier Frederic, Chini Louise P., Cronin Margot, Evans Wiley, Falk Stefanie, Feely Richard A., Gasser Thomas, Gehlen Marion, Gkritzalis Thanos, Gloege Lucas, Grassi Giacomo, Gruber Nicolas, Gurses Ozgur, Harris Ian, Hefner Matthew, Houghton Richard A., Hurtt George C., Iida Yosuke, Ilyina Tatiana, Jain Atul K., Jersild Annika, Kadono Koji, Kato Etsushi, Kennedy Daniel, Goldewijk Kees Klein, Knauer Jurgen, Korsbakken Jan Ivar, Landschutzer Peter, Lefevre Nathalie, Lindsay Keith, Liu Junjie, Liu Zhu, Marland Gregg, Mayot Nicolas, McGrath Matthew J., Metzl Nicolas, Monacci Natalie M., Munro David R., Nakaoka Shin-Ichiro, Niwa Yosuke, O'Brien Kevin, Ono Tsuneo, Palmer Paul, I, Pan Naiqing, Pierrot Denis, Pocock Katie, Poulter Benjamin, Resplandy Laure, Robertson Eddy, Rodenbeck Christian, Rodriguez Carmen, Rosan Thais M., Schwinger Jorg, Seferian Roland, Shutler Jamie D., Skjelvan Ingunn, Steinhoff Tobias, Sun Qing, Sutton Adrienne J., Sweeney Colm, Takao Shintaro, Tanhua Toste, Tans Pieter P., Tian Xiangjun, Tian Hanqin, Tilbrook Bronte, Tsujino Hiroyuki, Tubiello Francesco, Van Der Werf Guido R., Walker Anthony P., Wanninkhof Rik, Whitehead Chris, Wranne Anna Willstrand, Wright Rebecca, Yuan Wenping, Yue Chao, Yue Xu, Zaehle Sonke, Zeng Jiye, Zheng Bo (2022). Global Carbon Budget 2022. Earth System Science Data, 14(11), 4811-4900. Publisher's official version : https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-4811-2022 , Open Access version : https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00824/93590/