Bringing the Nature Futures Framework to life: creating a set of illustrative narratives of nature futures

Type Article
Acceptance Date 2023-05-04 IN PRESS
Language English
Author(s) Durán América Paz1, 2, Kuiper Jan J.ORCID3, Aguiar Ana Paula Dutra3, 4, Cheung William W. L.5, Diaw Mariteuw Chimère6, 7, Halouani GhassenORCID8, Hashimoto Shizuka9, Gasalla Maria A.10, Peterson Garry D.3, Schoolenberg Machteld A.11, Abbasov Rovshan12, Acosta Lilibeth A.13, Armenteras Dolors14, Davila Federico15, Denboba Mekuria Argaw16, Harrison Paula A.17, Harhash Khaled Allam18, Karlsson-Vinkhuyzen Sylvia19, Kim Hyejin20, 21, Lundquist Carolyn J.22, 23, Miller Brian W.24, Okayasu Sana11, Pichs-Madruga Ramon25, Sathyapalan Jyothis26, Saysel Ali Kerem27, Yu Dandan28, Pereira Laura M.3, 29
Affiliation(s) 1 : Instituto de Ciencias Ambientales y Evolutivas, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Austral de Chile, Valdivia, Chile
2 : Instituto de Ecología y Biodiversidad (IEB-Chile), Santiago, Chile
3 : Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Kräftriket 2B, 104 05, Stockholm, Sweden
4 : National Institute for Space Research (INPE), Av. dos Astronautas 1758, São José dos Campos, SP, CEP: 12227-010, Brazil
5 : Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada
6 : African Model Forests Network, BP 33678, Yaoundé, Cameroon
7 : African Model Forests Network, BP 2384, Dakar, Senegal
8 : IFREMER, Unité halieutique Manche‐Mer du Nord Ifremer, HMMN, 62200, Boulogne sur Mer, France
9 : Department of Ecosystem Studies, University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan
10 : Fisheries Ecosystems Laboratory (LabPesq), Oceanographic Institute, University of Sao Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil
11 : PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, The Hague, The Netherlands
12 : Department of Geography and Environment, Khazar University, Baku, Azerbaijan
13 : Climate Action and Inclusive Development Department, Global Green Growth Institute (GGGI), Seoul, South Korea
14 : Departamento de Biologia, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Bogota, Colombia
15 : Institute for Sustainable Futures, University of Technology Sydney, Sydney, Australia
16 : Center for Environmental Science, Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
17 : UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Bailrigg, Lancaster, UK
18 : Egyptian Environmental Affairs Agency, Ministry of Environment, Cairo, Egypt
19 : Public Administration and Policy Group, Wageningen University, Wageningen, The Netherlands
20 : German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Leipzig, Germany
21 : Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg, Halle (Salle), Germany
22 : National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, Hamilton, New Zealand
23 : School of Environment, The University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand
24 : U.S. Geological Survey, North Central Climate Adaptation Science Center, Boulder, CO, USA
25 : Centro de Investigaciones de la Economia Mundial (CIEM), La Habana, Cuba
26 : National Institute of Rural Development and Panchayati Raj Hyderabad, Hyderabad, India
27 : Institute of Environmental Sciences, Boğaziçi University, Istanbul, Turkey
28 : Nanjing Institute of Environmental Sciences (NIES), Ministry of Ecology and Environment (MEE) of China, 8 Jiangwangmiao Street, Nanjing, 210042, People’s Republic of China
29 : Global Change Institute, Wits University, Johannesburg, South Africa
Source Sustainability Science (1862-4065) (Springer Science and Business Media LLC) In Press
DOI 10.1007/s11625-023-01316-1
Keyword(s) Biodiversity, IPBES, Nature values, NCP, Scenarios, Transformation
Abstract

To halt further destruction of the biosphere, most people and societies around the globe need to transform their relationships with nature. The internationally agreed vision under the Convention of Biological Diversity—Living in harmony with nature—is that “By 2050, biodiversity is valued, conserved, restored and wisely used, maintaining ecosystem services, sustaining a healthy planet and delivering benefits essential for all people”. In this context, there are a variety of debates between alternative perspectives on how to achieve this vision. Yet, scenarios and models that are able to explore these debates in the context of “living in harmony with nature” have not been widely developed. To address this gap, the Nature Futures Framework has been developed to catalyse the development of new scenarios and models that embrace a plurality of perspectives on desirable futures for nature and people. In this paper, members of the IPBES task force on scenarios and models provide an example of how the Nature Futures Framework can be implemented for the development of illustrative narratives representing a diversity of desirable nature futures: information that can be used to assess and develop scenarios and models whilst acknowledging the underpinning value perspectives on nature. Here, the term illustrative reflects the multiple ways in which desired nature futures can be captured by these narratives. In addition, to explore the interdependence between narratives, and therefore their potential to be translated into scenarios and models, the six narratives developed here were assessed around three areas of the transformative change debate, specifically, (1) land sparing vs. land sharing, (2) Half Earth vs. Whole Earth conservation, and (3) green growth vs. post-growth economic development. The paper concludes with an assessment of how the Nature Futures Framework could be used to assist in developing and articulating transformative pathways towards desirable nature futures.

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Durán América Paz, Kuiper Jan J., Aguiar Ana Paula Dutra, Cheung William W. L., Diaw Mariteuw Chimère, Halouani Ghassen, Hashimoto Shizuka, Gasalla Maria A., Peterson Garry D., Schoolenberg Machteld A., Abbasov Rovshan, Acosta Lilibeth A., Armenteras Dolors, Davila Federico, Denboba Mekuria Argaw, Harrison Paula A., Harhash Khaled Allam, Karlsson-Vinkhuyzen Sylvia, Kim Hyejin, Lundquist Carolyn J., Miller Brian W., Okayasu Sana, Pichs-Madruga Ramon, Sathyapalan Jyothis, Saysel Ali Kerem, Yu Dandan, Pereira Laura M.. Bringing the Nature Futures Framework to life: creating a set of illustrative narratives of nature futures. Sustainability Science IN PRESS. Publisher's official version : https://doi.org/10.1007/s11625-023-01316-1 , Open Access version : https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00836/94763/